NFL Draft Crush: Why 49ers should take Alabama safety Xavier McKinney at No. 13
The 49ers lost a foundational player in the eyes of general manager John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan when they traded away DeForest Buckner.
What is a foundational player? It’s someone who is productive, reliable and durable with natural leadership skills to elevate those around him. That’s the kind of player Buckner was and the type the 49ers will always search for during the NFL draft.
In reporting a story in 2018, two years before reaching the Super Bowl, about the culture Lynch and Shanahan were trying to put in place, I sat down in Lynch’s office to discuss what exactly that culture was and how they defined it. Lynch had his definition of the “49er way” printed under glass on his desk so he could always go back to it.
“Football Passion — Do they love it? Contagious Competitiveness. Dependability — Protect the team. Mental Toughness. Football IQ. Accountability to other players and themselves.”
That’s the prism in which Lynch and Shanahan look at college prospects. It’s not always about positional need or scheme fit. Being an immensely talented player only goes so far. The 49ers learned that with Reuben Foster.
So while searching for the player I believe San Francisco could and will draft in the first round Thursday night, those were the parameters that mattered more than positional need.
Sure, the 49ers need a receiver and could absolutely end up with Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs III or CeeDee Lamb with the No. 13 pick. They could find Buckner’s replacement at defensive tackle in Javon Kinlaw, making it a clean one-for-one swap by using the pick they received from the Colts in the Buckner trade. They could add a potential starting cornerback in C.J. Henderson who could be the long-term replacement for Richard Sherman.
But do those players embody the “49er way?” That’s the more important question.
My search for that player landed on someone different and off the beaten path. The player I believe the 49ers should and will come away with Thursday night at the No. 13 pick is Alabama safety Xavier McKinney.
“Who? What? Are you insane? Do you even watch football???”
Hear me out before sending that angry email or hopping in my Twitter mentions.
McKinney set the tone at Alabama
McKinney, by all accounts, lives by those ideals printed on Lynch’s desk. He’s one of the most surefire prospects in a draft where certainty should be at a premium in these uncertain times. His football character and leadership skills are Buckner-esque.
After Alabama lost the National Championship Game to Clemson following the 2018 season, McKinney became the team’s tone-setter when practice resumed in the spring, earning praise from his head coach that sounded similar to what the 49ers would say about Buckner. Nick Saban isn’t known for heaping praise on players that don’t deserve it.
“You couldn’t ask a guy to set a better example,” Saban said of McKinney. “His practice habits have been phenomenal ... I mean he’s doing everything he can to set a good example and be a leader for other players.”
McKinney, who can play strong safety, free safety and slot cornerback, went on to have a banner season, leading the team in tackles and big plays, while picking up the slack throughout the season after the Tide’s defense lost six starters to the draft.
He’s also one of the most versatile and balanced defenders in the class. He’s excellent in coverage and against the run. He can cover receivers, tight ends and running backs. He can also hit and tackle as well as anyone in the draft. McKinney exemplifies the positionless trend Shanahan has emphasized on offense, making him an ideal defender for the modern game.
Do the 49ers need a safety?
What about the fit?
The 49ers’ starting safeties from last season, Jimmie Ward and Jaquiski Tartt, remain on the roster. Ward returned on a three-year, $28.5 million contract while Tartt is entering the final year of the three-year extension he signed in 2018.
Tartt has been a good player when available but injuries have been an issue throughout his career. He’s missed 19 games the past three seasons and has never appeared in all 16 games since entering the league as a second-round pick in 2015. He’s also forced just two fumbles and recorded three interceptions in five seasons.
McKinney, who would be best in Tartt’s strong safety role, never missed a start in college and created 10 turnovers the last two years by forcing fumbles or creating interceptions. He also added 6.0 sacks and 20 pass breakups, proving a knack for making game-changing plays that Tartt has not (Tartt had 4.0 sacks and 13 PBUs the last five years).
McKinnney could be the next Tyrann Mathieu, Jamal Adams or Minkah Fitzpatrick, which could be a devastating addition to an already elite defense, if he continues his trajectory.
Tartt was also mentioned in trade rumors on Monday by former NFL executive Michael Lombardi. Perhaps trading Tartt could net the 49ers a midround draft pick similar to when they dealt tackle Trent Brown to the Patriots after replacing him with Mike McGlinchey in the first round of the 2018 draft.
McKinney being able to play free safety and in the slot would only add to his value. Ward, of course, has dealt with a litany of injuries throughout his career and could be capably replaced by McKinney, if needed. McKinney might be the best free safety in the draft class. Slot cornerback K’Waun Williams is also entering the last year of his contract, creating another possible void McKinney could fill.
McKinney last season as a junior played more than 200 snaps at free safety, strong safety and in the slot. The chess piece and Swiss army knife cliches apply in spades.
It’s also worth noting that McKinney, against stronger competition in the SEC, had a better coverage grade from Pro Football Focus (89.2) than projected top-10 pick Isaiah Simmons (88.2), the versatile defensive star from Clemson.
Would 13 be too early to take McKinney? It could be. He’s projected to go anywhere from the middle of Round 1 to the 20s, making him a candidate for San Francisco if Lynch and Shanahan try to trade down for more draft capital. McKinney ran a slow 4.63-second 40-yard dash at the combine while dealing with a calf cramp. Perhaps he would enter Thursday with more buzz had he ran as fast as he does on tape — or if his pro day wasn’t canceled amid COVID-19 concerns.
One of the most illuminating things Lynch said during his Zoom video conference Monday was he believed there were only six foundational players in the top half of the first round, which makes it unlikely one will fall to the 49ers at 13. Trading back seems like the prudent move, particularly if it means turning Buckner into McKinney and additional picks on Day 2, which the team currently doesn’t have.
Why not a receiver at 13?
There won’t be an offseason program because of the coronavirus crisis, which means receivers won’t be able to hit the ground running to learn Shanahan’s complex offense. There might not be a worse offseason to draft a receiver you expect to start right away because practice time will be so limited. That’s not ideal for a position in which chemistry and timing is paramount.
Tight end George Kittle described his 2017 rookie season as running around like a chicken with his head cut off because the learning curve in Shanahan’s offense was so steep. That was after Kittle had a normal rookie offseason to acclimate. Emmanuel Sanders fit so seamlessly after being acquired midway through 2019 because he ran the same system with Broncos. And Sanders was in his 20th NFL season.
It’s impossible to guarantee a Round 1 receiver would have more immediate value to the 49ers than a plug-and-play starter like McKinney.
Does that mean the 49ers should avoid receiver altogether? Of course not. The current climate just means taking one in Round 1 makes it an unusually risky proposition.
This is an unusually deep receiver class, which means there’s a good chance possible starters could be found in rounds 2 through 4, not just the first. Of the top five most productive receivers in the league in 2019, Michael Thomas, Chris Godwin and Keenan Allen were all taken outside the first round (Julio Jones and DeVante Parker were the first-rounders to make the list).
For every second-round hit, like Thomas, Davante Adams, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Deebo Samuel, A.J. Brown or Courtland Sutton, there’s a first-round bust like Corey Davis, John Ross, Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell or Kelvin Benjamin.
Recent history shows teams are just as likely to hit on a receiver in Round 2 as Round 1, which might be the better course of action for the 49ers, who need to replace Buckner with players they can count on to keep their championship window open.
