49ers Mailbag: Why Garoppolo’s improvement is vital to a Super Bowl return
Like you, I’m growing tired of being in my house, the beige walls, the lack of real happy hours, missing family and friends and spending hours on the practice field next to Levi’s Stadium watching a bunch of highly paid athletes practice a kids’ game.
Fortunately, we still have our weekly mailbags to make our days a little brighter where we can talk about a bunch of highly paid athletes playing a kids’ game. To your questions!
Joel asks: What will the key for the 49ers to get them back to the Super Bowl?
To me, it’s all about Jimmy Garoppolo taking the next step and becoming a top-tier quarterback the team can rely on to play at a high level week after week. We’ve seen glimpses of Garoppolo playing brilliantly (in New Orleans, late in the win over the Rams, or Week 17 against Seattle, for example). We’ve also seen him struggle (Week 1 in Tampa, the Monday loss to the Seahawks, the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl).
I believe the discussion surrounding Garoppolo stemming from last year’s playoffs is a bit overblown. Kyle Shanahan rode the running game because he had no reason not to against the Packers. Garoppolo was playing well for three quarters against the Chiefs and may have won Super Bowl MVP had he not missed Emmanuel Sanders on the deep seam route. That throw is the difference between the offseason discussion turning into, “Do the 49ers need a new quarterback?” and “Is Jimmy Garoppolo the next 49ers’ Hall of Fame QB?”
The 49ers defense figures to take a step back next season after somehow avoiding the level of criticism Garoppolo has taken for the Super Bowl loss. Losing DeForest Buckner is a big deal and the secondary is aging without significant reinforcements for a second straight offseason.
Yes, the secondary was stellar last year, but will that be sustainable now that Richard Sherman is entering 2020 at age 32? Will either Emmanuel Moseley or Ahkello Witherspoon prove to be long-term starters or will general manager John Lynch have to revamp the position the same way he did defensive end in 2019 when he traded for Dee Ford and drafted Nick Bosa? How big of a loss is secondary coach Joe Woods, who was crucial in the turnaround?
I don’t think the 49ers can rely on the same identity that got them to last year’s Super Bowl. Yes, they should still try to run the ball effectively, but Shanahan should also ask Garoppolo to do more now that he’s had more experience in the system, is further removed from his ACL tear and finally has a full season under his belt.
San Francisco will also need its skill positions players to improve. Deebo Samuel needs to become a 1,000-yard receiver and Brandon Aiyuk has to hit the ground running.
Rob asks: Whose contract gets done first, Trent Williams or George Kittle?
Ideally, for both Kittle and the 49ers, his contract would get done before the start of the season. But it wouldn’t be a surprise if the deal didn’t until the team knew exactly what the league’s financial outlook is like.
Because, if games are played without fans next year, there could be massive losses in revenue that impacts the salary cap in 2021 and beyond, which means it might be harder to fit Kittle (and Williams) into the salary cap structure without making sacrifices elsewhere.
Williams and the 49ers are taking a wait-and-see approach. As good as he’s been, there’s a hint of skepticism surrounding the fact he took a year off and is entering the year at age 32. Williams wants to get top dollar for 2021 and the 49ers want him to prove he’s still a top-dollar player before paying him accordingly.
The same complications exist for Williams as Kittle. The 49ers will have to decide if paying Williams and Kittle some $35 to $40 million combined makes financial sense when Fred Warner and Nick Bosa will be up for new contracts the following two years.
Gun to my head, Kittle gets a deal early in training camp. Williams would be more likely to get a contract midseason, or perhaps he would be a franchise tag candidate. But it’s impossible to say because nothing about the 2020 season feels normal.
Derek asks: We can understand the win-now mentality, but surely there will be a big dip next year with the situation in the secondary? How do they plan for this? Considering the cap, they are likely only going to resolve by drafting, and we didn’t address this at all. Why?
That’s the biggest risk the 49ers are taking into 2020. In a deep class of receivers in the draft, coach Kyle Shanahan elected to trade up for Aiyuk, sending fourth- and fifth-round picks to the Vikings, rather than standing pat or trying to move down for more selections where they could have addressed the secondary.
To be sure, having Sherman, K’Waun Williams, Witherspoon and Moseley all entering the final year of their contracts may not necessarily be a bad thing. We’ve seen players have stellar contract seasons before (Arik Armstead in 2019, Dee Ford in 2018), plus the team should be plenty motivated after what happened in early February.
And there’s a reasonable chance one of those players gets a contract extension to stick around beyond 2020 to quell some speculation about the future.
I believe the 49ers think Moseley and Witherspoon can still get better. The long-term uncertainty should drive them to work hard this offseason and hopefully that carries over to the regular season, whenever it begins.
Jose asks: Do you think Niners’ secondary and edge defenders are deep enough to make it to the Super Bowl this season? In my opinion, there isn’t enough talent in the secondary and there is a lack of speed on the edge.
Those positions are largely unchanged from last year, but, yes. It’s certainly possible. Bosa should be better now that he’s no longer a rookie. If Ford is healthier — a big ‘if’ — he should contribute far more than last season when he only played 22 percent of the defensive snaps.
The secondary, to me, is the team’s Achilles heal. If Sherman continues to play like one of the best two or three corners in football, the 49ers could be as good as anyone. If he hits a steep decline, then the decision not to address the secondary this offseason will be a worthy criticism of Lynch and Shanahan.
