49ers Mailbag: Would Kyle Shanahan consider signing Colin Kaepernick?
We’re only answering one question in this week’s mailbag. It came via email and felt pertinent given what’s been going on in the country in the wake of protests following the death of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police officers.
Kevin asks: Realizing that Jimmy Garoppolo is the starting QB, given, and, among other things, his talent and success, and the 49ers have a rather large investment in him, I wonder if Jed York would consider signing Colin Kaepernick as a free agent?
It’s a tough question to answer given all the layers to the situation. Yes, Kaepernick’s protest has only been more legitimized in light of current events. And yes, he absolutely deserves a job in the NFL and is better than a significant number of employed quarterbacks. That’s been the case since he left the 49ers early in 2017.
But I don’t believe the 49ers would be interested. Irrespective of Kaepernick’s protest, which the team supported in 2016 and continues to now, I believe that particular player-team relationship has run its course.
Teams regularly change quarterbacks when new regimes are installed, particularly following two-win seasons like the 49ers had in 2016 when Kaepernick was last the starter. He would be a tough fit for Kyle Shanahan’s offense, which relies heavily on getting the ball out quickly and accurately, where Garoppolo excels, while Kaepernick is more known for his big arm and play-making with his legs.
Pro Football Focus’ numbers on important throws help illustrate the case. Garoppolo last season completed 55.7 percent of his passes between 10 and 20 yards down field with six touchdowns and five interceptions. He had a 88.95 passer rating on such throws.
In 2016, Kaepernick completed 30 of 77 of those passes (39 percent) and had a rating of 73.67. Of course, Kaepernick was playing in a miserable offense run by Chip Kelly with Torrey Smith, Jeremy Kerley and Quinton Patton as his top three receivers. It wasn’t exactly a juggernaut oozing with talent and it was Kaepernick’s first and only year in that system. Last year marked Garoppolo’s third with Shanahan.
The 49ers’ passing game works off Garoppolo’s overall efficiency. He’s averaged 8.4 yards per attempt since coming to San Francisco. Kaepernick for his career averaged 7.3 and only completed 60 percent of his throws once over a full season. Kaepernick’s career completion rate, 59.8 percent, would have ranked 30th among starters in 2019.
The case for Kaepernick: Surely Shanahan could recreate the explosive running scheme he ran with Robert Griffin III in Washington at the same time Kaepernick was running zone reads under Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman.
But it would be a complete identity shift from the 49ers’ current scheme that’s been designed for quarterbacks with Garoppolo’s skills — and teams don’t overhaul their systems for backup quarterbacks.
Shanahan was asked about bringing Kaepernick back in 2018 after Garoppolo tore his ACL that September when he named C.J. Beathard the new starter.
“I think I made that decision just with the style of offense that we wanted to go with,” Shanahan said. “That’s kind of what I said last year and it’s kind of the same situation now. If you’re thinking of if there’d be a different discussion now, I always look into what style of offense I want to do, what style of offense we’ve been doing for the last two years. When you start to get to these quarterbacks we’re talking about, C.J. (Beathard) is our guy and we have Nick Mullens backing him up. So, when you get into a third and fourth guy, whoever that is, you’d like to bring in guys that you felt you didn’t have to change as much of your offense for.”
It’s also worth asking: Would Kaepernick even want to come back to the 49ers?
Surely, if offered, he would consider it given no one has made him a contract offer since he last played in the league.
But, remember, the team didn’t handle everything with aplomb during the turbulent ending to Harbaugh’s tenure and the Jim Tomsula and Kelly years that followed before Kaepernick began protesting.
There were whisper campaigns disparaging Kaepernick’s work ethic. There was a report that he ate alone in the team cafeteria. The leaks to national reporters during that time weren’t solely about the head coach amid the divorce from Harbaugh. Kaepernick didn’t have a ton of support in the building, which was odd given he signed a $126 million contract in 2014 to be the face of the franchise.
Kaepernick could make a strong argument the organization deserves a significant portion of the blame for being unable to maintain its relationship with Harbaugh or find an adequate replacement that could take advantage of Kaepernick’s skill set. Who knows what would have happened if the 49ers sided with Harbaugh instead of general manager Trent Baalke when everything blew up.
The Kaepernick conversation is a difficult one to have. Clearly he deserves a job. Clearly he’s better than a lot of employed quarterbacks. But it would also be disingenuous to say he would be a fit for every team because only a handful of quarterbacks truly are.
Another point: The idea Kaepernick would be “bad for business” is a farce. I believe he would instantly have one of the best selling jerseys in the league wherever he signed, like he did after his protest took hold in 2016. His new team would have sky-high ratings and earn new fans all over the country.
Signing Kaepernick could and should be a move teams consider making. I just don’t expect it to be the 49ers. The most obvious fit would be the Baltimore Ravens, where Roman remains the offensive coordinator operating a run-heavy scheme for Lamar Jackson, a similarly dynamic runner. It doesn’t hurt that Harbaugh’s brother, John, is the coach there.
This story was originally published June 10, 2020 at 4:00 AM.