49ers mailbag: Grading the Garoppolo era, how to find possible QB replacements
The 49ers took a long weekend after their preseason loss, er, Week 9 loss to the Packers on Thursday while they were playing backups at seemingly every position.
The team is getting back on the practice field Wednesday ahead of their trip to play the New Orleans Saints, which means it’s time for us to open up the mailbag. To your questions!
@TheSFGiantsGuy asks: If this is truly it for the Jimmy G era, how would you grade it, given multiple dismal seasons contrasted with a Super Bowl appearance?
That’s a tough one.
Let’s break it down by season. 2017 was an A. Garoppolo took a team that started the year 0-9 and finished with five straight wins and a 6-10 record. That had never been done before and Garoppolo was statistically one of the best quarterbacks in football during that stretch. Extra ice cream for that effort, Jimmy.
Then 2018 fell short of expectations because of the knee injury. I’ll give that one an “incomplete” grade.
Garoppolo was good to very good for most of the Super Bowl run, but it was clear the quarterback spot was the team’s most glaring weakness. That sounds like a harsh indictment, sure, but it’s more because the team was so good in other areas. The defense and running game were elite while Garoppolo fell more into the “good, not consistently great” category.
Let’s give Garoppolo a B for 2019. We have to keep in mind Shanahan took the ball out of his hands in the playoff wins over the Vikings and Packers before struggling down the stretch in the Super Bowl.
This year? I’m not sure how to grade it.
He doesn’t deserve an incomplete like 2018 because Garoppolo made it back to the field and played through his ankle injury, though he wasn’t nearly as effective and the offense seemed hampered by his inability to push the ball downfield. Garoppolo has completed just 1 of 10 throws that traveled at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, according to Pro Football Focus. That’s not good.
The 49ers so far are 3-3 in Garoppolo’s starts this season and his numbers are down across the board. So let’s give Garoppolo a C for what we’ve seen in 2020.
In summation, Garoppolo gets an A for five games in 2017, an incomplete for 2018, a B for 2019 and a C for 2020.
So how about a B-minus? That seems right to me, all things considered, given there’s a reasonable chance the 49ers move on from Garoppolo in the offseason. Him not lasting his five-year contract, or getting an extension, was not the desired outcome when the 49ers gave him that deal in February 2018.
@jimsontamano asks: Would the 49ers offer Dak Prescott more money than the cowboys?
Highly doubtful. The team is in cost-cutting mode, as most throughout the league are, because the 2021 salary cap is expected to shrink roughly by $40 million because of the pandemic.
San Francisco will have to give out new contracts to Fred Warner and Trent Williams, and then figure out the cornerback situation, which could include Sherman or another pricey veteran. It’s hard to see them trying to keep a contending roster intact while offering top dollar to Prescott, assuming that’s the Cowboys’ plan.
But I could also see owner Jerry Jones telling his front office to move mountains for the No. 1 pick in the draft for Trevor Lawrence, allowing Prescott to sign elsewhere. So who knows.
@510maleake49er asks: Everyone has been on Jimmy. My dude isn’t perfect, but he’s pretty damn good. Better than Darnold, better/cheaper than Matt Ryan, better than Cousins. IF these “fans” want to run him out of town, who’s a better replacement? There isn’t one, stick with Jimmy!
I don’t think the issue is finding someone who’s better. It would be about finding a better value if the team decides to move on. Could the 49ers get similar production from a rookie at a third or quarter of the price? If they believe coach Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive coaches in the league, which they certainly do, then that needs to be part of the equation.
I think there’s a helpful question in trying to figure this thing out: What would Garoppolo earn on the open market in free agency right now?
There’s no way he would get $26-$27 million a season. Not after having two of three years derailed by injury while having as many rough games as stellar ones. I’d guess Garoppolo is worth in the neighborhood of $12 to $15 million per season right now, based off what we’ve seen in 2020 and his injury concerns.
If that’s in the ballpark of where the 49ers value Garoppolo, why would they pay $26 million for him next season?
@TnNinerfan asks: Is the key to a top five defense next year keeping Robert Saleh, a top free agent safety, or another first round defensive lineman or a fresh new cover cornerback?
Keeping Saleh would be very important, in my opinion, for the defense to continue to play at a high level. Keep in mind, the defense hasn’t had three of its best defensive linemen from last season — Nick Bosa, DeForest Buckner and Dee Ford — and their top cornerback, Richard Sherman, has been out since Week 1.
Yet the defense ranks 10th in scoring and seventh in yardage halfway through the season. That’s a testament to the system and continuity Saleh has in place. The most successful teams throughout the NFL establish a strong system year after year allowing them to plug in new players without missing a step. Keeping Saleh would continue that trend if he doesn’t land a head coaching job elsewhere.
Adding another defensive lineman could also help if the team decides to part with Ford after two injury-riddled seasons since giving him the hefty contract before last season. 49ers fans that used to be weary of drafting defensive linemen early should probably change their tune after what the team accomplished last year.
When it comes to cornerback, the 49ers could be headed for an offseason of wholesale changes, similar to the way the team handled its defensive line before 2019 when the 49ers traded for Ford and drafted Bosa. None of the team’s current cornerbacks, including nickle K’Waun Williams, are signed for next season. So it should be an area the front office adds to in free agency and the draft, even if Sherman comes back.
@Panikkar37 asks: If the 49ers can pull out the win on Sunday and enter the bye week at 5-5, do you think that if they get healthier, they can put a playoff run together with the Rams, Bills, Football Team, and Cowboys as the first 4 games post bye week?
I do not, unless the league expands the playoff field to eight teams per conference, which could happen if too many games are canceled because of the pandemic, which ESPN reported Tuesday.
It’s impossible to expect the 49ers to have any luck when it comes to injuries this season.
@_Bergiooo asks: Will Dee Ford be on the team next year?
Unless he takes a massive pay cut, I don’t think so. The 49ers could save $16 million by releasing him or trading him with a post-June 1 designation. That’s money they could give to Warner, Williams, Sherman or another key free agent at a position of need.
Ford’s been a valuable player when healthy. But he simply hasn’t been available enough. Next year, he’ll be coming off back-to-back injury-plagued seasons with knee and back issues. That’s not a good combination for someone making slated to make nearly $21 million against the cap.
This story was originally published November 11, 2020 at 7:10 AM.
