Where the San Francisco 49ers stand in playoff chase before Bills game
The 49ers, relegated to playing their home games in Arizona, got some help in their unlikely bid for a playoff spot while they stood idle Sunday.
Because the Rams beat the Cardinals and Lions took care of the Bears, a win for the 49ers on Monday night against the Buffalo Bills would tie them with the Minnesota Vikings for the seventh and final wild card spot in the NFC playoffs. A loss would make the uphill climb even steeper.
Should San Francisco improve to 6-6 Monday, tying the Vikings, Minnesota would still own the tiebreaker, given they have a better record in conference. They’re 4-4 in the NFC while San Francisco is 3-5. Both teams‘ final four games are against NFC teams.
The next tiebreaker, common opponents, would be thrown out because the team’s don’t share the minimum of four. After that would be strength of victory, which the 49ers currently have the advantage, beating teams with a .450 winning percentage while the Vikings’ is currently .389. That would only go up if San Francisco takes out Buffalo (8-3), the current leader in the AFC East.
The Rams’ (8-4) win over the Cardinals (6-6) on Sunday, 38-28, knocked Arizona out of the seventh wild card spot the Vikings (6-6) took over with their 27-24 victory over the Jaguars. The Bears, who were also in the mix, fell to 5-7 with their 34-30 defeat to Detroit (5-7), which also has an outside shot at the postseason, but would likely have to win out with their interim coach, Darrell Bevell.
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan was asked about how he approaches paying attention to the standings given the 49ers are right on the edge of playoff contention.
“I promise, I haven’t looked at it at all. Also, because everyone else does, so I get to hear them tell me all the time,” he said. “ I’ve always my whole life, just my whole football career, I’ve always looked at it as 10 wins get you in and that’s kind of how I’ve always based it off.”
Getting to 10 wins would mean the 49ers would have to win out, which would be an awfully impressive feat given the injuries the team has dealt with all season. But it’s not entirely out of the question. After Buffalo, the 49ers host Washington (4-7), travel to Dallas (3-8), and finish with divisional games against the Cardinals and Seahawks, at which point Jimmy Garoppolo (high ankle sprain) and George Kittle (fractured foot) have an outside chance at returning.
According to FiveThirtyEight, San Francisco is entering Monday with a 38% chance at making the playoffs. A win over Buffalo would increase it to 52%, and a win the next week against Washington would push it to 60% before knowing what happens to the other teams in the mix.
A loss to the Bills would shrink their playoff probability to 27%. So expect the 49ers to give everything they have to keep their hopes alive on Monday.
This story was originally published December 7, 2020 at 9:09 AM.