49ers mailbag: QBs to consider in mid rounds of the NFL draft and ... Minshew Mania?
The 49ers are realistically out of the playoff hunt after dropping their game Sunday to Washington on the back of three turnovers, including two that led to defensive touchdowns.
The discussion surrounding coach Kyle Shanahan’s team now will be about what to do in 2021, which is shaping up to be an extremely busy offseason, even though Shanahan and his players are still saying they’re focused on winning out, finishing 8-8 and trying to sneak into the postseason over the final three weeks.
The biggest question, of course, is the uncertain future of Jimmy Garoppolo. I still think he returns, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be big changes coming in the quarterback room this spring.
That’s the focus of our mailbag. Let’s get to it.
@TnNinerFan asks: Is there a sleeper QB the Niners can get in the third round that can develop in a year? We need to focus on cornerback.
Admittedly, I haven’t taken the deep dive into mid-round quarterbacks yet in this draft class. I’m expecting to have plenty of time in January and February to the do the intensive YouTube scouting and talk about people who know much more about evaluating quarterback prospects than I do.
But here’s a preliminary list of guys who could be in the Round 3 range the 49ers might target as a backup with the upside to develop into a start, since Shanahan likes those kind of players (Kirk Cousins, C.J. Beathard, et al).
The names I came up with: Sam Ehlinger (Texas), Jamie Newman (Georgia, Wake Forest), Brock Purdy (Iowa State) and Kyle Trask (Florida).
Obviously there’s going to be a lot of movement in draft stock over the next four months. Some think Purdy and Trask are first-round talents. Ehlinger is known for his work in the field while also limiting turnovers, which could make him an interesting fit in Shanahan’s offense.
Newman isn’t the most efficient, having completed around 60 percent of his passes in 2018 and 2019, but is a good deep ball thrower with the athleticism to add versatility to the running game. At 6-4 and 230 pounds, his legs could be an added threat in the red zone.
Purdy will probably get some first- and second-round buzz, but his efficiency has declined slightly during his three seasons with the Cyclones. He’s averaging just 7.9 yards per attempt in 2020 after averaging 10.2 and 8.4 in his first two years, respectively. He’s the gunslinger of this group.
Trask, of course, is a Heisman Trophy candidate for his big season with Florida — which could cause him to go much higher than Round 3. He’s completing 70 percent of his throws and has 40 touchdowns in just 10 games against SEC competition. But there will be questions about why Trask has only put up these kinds of numbers in one season and why he wasn’t better in 2019.
Ultimately, I think this is a good question because rounds 2 and 3 seem like the sweet spot for the 49ers when it comes to adding a quarterback this offseason, unless they end up with a top-10 pick in range of one of the top guys. If not, I expect Jimmy Garoppolo will return along with Nick Mullens or Beathard, making Day 2 a good time to find a developmental guy.
@mattDlovelady asks: Am I crazy to think Gardner Minshew is a good trade target to back up JG next year? Seems like Jags aren’t too invested. Good accuracy, good on timing routes, irrational confidence. Surely Shanahan could get the most out of him. I’d rather add him than someone like Darnold.
I think Minshew makes sense as a trade target. He’s experienced and might be available for a late-round pick should the Jaguars decide to blow things up this offseason. The team is currently being run by former 49ers general manager Trent Baalke, by the way, who was named interim G.M. after the team fired Dave Caldwell last month. I would be shocked if Jacksonville decided to stick with Baalke based on what happened when he was in control of the 49ers’ “reloading” effort in 2015 and 2016.
Minshew will be 25 next season, and while he probably wouldn’t seriously challenge Garoppolo for the starting job, he would certainly push Mullens or Beathard and might be upgrade over both. And he would come at a cheaper price than drafting one of the guys mentioned in the question above.
I disagree on your Darnold opinion though. I think if Darnold could be had for a third- or fourth-round pick, you take that chance, because it’s a rare opportunity to add a first-round talent with years left of control on his rookie contract. That said, Darnold and his $9.7 million cap figure for 2021 probably make it unlikely the 49ers would bring back Mullens and Beathard.
@brenick77 asks: When will the NFL announce the official salary cap number, and how much total money could the Niners save by cutting Dee Ford and Garoppolo this offseason?
The minimum for the salary cap in 2021 has already been collectively bargained at $175 million. Again, that’s the minimum. It was decided upon by the league and NFLPA over the summer while the team was hammering out a deal to start the 2020 season on time amid the pandemic. There’s been some discussion recently about it being higher than that, but we’ll have to see.
The 49ers would have $20 to $21 million based on that $175 million number.
The cap is usually determined around early March, just before the start of free agency, so teams know exactly how much they’ll have available to spend.
San Francisco could save over $6 million by cutting Ford, who had his contract restructured just before the start of the regular season, leaving the 49ers with $14 million in dead money, according to Overthecap.com.
It was an odd decision to rework Ford’s deal because it guaranteed Ford more money and made him more difficult to cut this spring. And given that he hasn’t played since Week 1 because of an ongoing back injury, it’s fair to wonder if Ford will ever play at a high level again, if at all.
The team’s decision to redo Weston Richburg’s contract last season had a similar consequence, and it’s not clear if Richburg will ever play at a high level again given how long it’s taken him to come back from his torn patellar tendon in his knee, on top of the leg injury he had a year prior. Cutting Richburg would save roughly $5 million, per Overthecap.
The 49ers would save about $24 million if they cut or traded Garoppolo, which will absolutely garner some consideration, particularly if the team decides to move up in the draft and find a rookie on a much smaller salary. That would be an interesting way to go because it would allow them the money to sign left tackle Trent Williams and give linebacker Fred Warner a new contract, while leaving enough room to pay for a veteran cornerback or two.
I’m still expecting Garoppolo to return while Richburg and Ford will not, leaving the 49ers with something like $30 million in room by the team the new league year begins in March.
This story was originally published December 16, 2020 at 7:10 AM.
