49ers mailbag: Is Shanahan telling the truth about keeping Garoppolo?
We’ve made it to our final mailbag of the regular season, and we did it without suffering any high ankle sprains, tweaked hamstrings or broken bones.
The 49ers, of course, haven’t been so lucky. They enter Sunday’s season finale against the Seattle Seahawks at 6-9 and have been eliminated from the postseason since losing to the Dallas Cowboys two weeks ago.
Now it’s time to focus on the future and how San Francisco will work to get back to Super Bowl contention in 2021. You’ll never guess where we’ll start. A reminder: Your questions are lightly edited.
Jarvis asks: What do you make of Kyle Shanahan’s press conference (Monday)? Will the Niners have a new QB in 2021?
Jarvis is referring to Shanahan’s declaration Monday when he said, “Yes, I do believe Jimmy’s going to be our quarterback next year.”
That’s the second time Shanahan has said as much since November. My take: I think the 49ers are planning to have Garoppolo be their starter in 2021 but they will survey all the available options as they did last offseason when they at least entertained the idea of signing Tom Brady in free agency.
Shanahan mentioned the 49ers’ record with Garoppolo (22-8) versus their record without him (7-26). And he grouped Garoppolo in with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel when talking about the emotional impact he has on the team just by being on the practice field.
“I can’t tell you how much our players are different, too, with just having Jimmy out there,” Shanahan said Monday.
So I think Garoppolo should be the odds-on favorite to be the 49ers’ quarterback in 2021.
Is there a scenario where he isn’t? Sure.
The 49ers could fall in love with the idea of trading for Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, who could be an upgrade at a lower price given Detroit would be on the hook for some of his guaranteed money. But Stafford could conceivably want a new contract upon coming to San Francisco, which would then make him a pricier option from a salary standpoint, and the 49ers would likely have to give up a first-round pick (or more) to get him.
So would they be a better team with Stafford and no first-round pick? That’s certainly debatable, but it would be difficult to come out of this offseason without adding a high-end prospect (or veteran) at defensive end and/or cornerback. Adding to those positions would be more difficult if the team adds Stafford.
Also, wins aren’t a quarterback stat, but it’s fair to ask if Shanahan would be making the right move in going after Stafford, a quarterback that’s been to the playoffs three times in his 12 seasons without winning a postseason game, over Garoppolo, who reached the Super Bowl in his only 16-game season as a starter.
Could the 49ers draft a quarterback in Round 1 to unseat Garoppolo? Absolutely.
But no rookie quarterback has ever won a Super Bowl, and it would be difficult for Shanahan to justify making that move in the middle of a championship window. Though getting a starter on a rookie contract could allow the team to spend more to address needs in free agency. It would be a long-term play that Shanahan would have to justify to the veterans in the locker room, including Kittle, one of Garoppolo’s closest friends on the team.
This season is a year too soon to move on from Garoppolo. If Garoppolo plays all 16 games next season and doesn’t show improvement from 2019, then it would be time to move on in 2022, as it would be if Garoppolo’s injuries issues persist. For now, the 49ers seem most likely to run it back and hope they recreate the magic from 2019.
Jarvis (again) asks: Do you think the uncertainty of a rookie QB could affect the re-signing of Trent Williams?
Congrats to Jarvis for getting a second question in!
I would think so, but the timing is tricky. Free agency is usually around six weeks before the draft. And if the 49ers were planning on drafting a quarterback, it would be difficult to convince free agents to sign without knowing for sure if they’ll be able to get the one they want. Plus, the championship window thing.
San Francisco would have a better shot at landing the free agents they covet with Garoppolo as the starter because they could talk about improvement through continuity. The 49ers could sell free agents on a shot at the Super Bowl with Garoppolo in tow rather than telling them they plan on addressing the position with a theoretical draft pick that won’t be made until weeks later.
More simply, veterans who want to win are more likely to desire a team with a veteran quarterback.
Steve asks: What are your thoughts on a possible move to guard for McGlinchey? The physique he has now, plus run blocking ability, could make him a better than average to good replacement over what they have now...
I don’t think McGlinchey needs to or should change positions. I think he needs to put on some weight and play better in 2021.
That’s not groundbreaking analysis, I know, but I don’t think McGlinchey is a long-term problem for the 49ers yet. He’s been good in the running game even though he’s had some high-profile whiffs in pass protection. I’d be more inclined to judge McGlinchey this time next year if he doesn’t return to the form he had in the second half of 2019 when he looked like a Pro Bowler in the making.
The focus at tackle this spring should be getting Williams back and hoping McGlinchey improves. Not every player that has a down season needs to be replaced. I’d be surprised if the 49ers don’t pick up his fifth-year option for 2022 in May.
Denise asks: Can you please explain the Kyle hate to me like I’m 3 because I just don’t get it, no coach had this much go wrong in one season!
The people who are down on Shanahan likely subscribe to the theory calling the NFL “a results-based business.” I agree with that line of thinking but also think it would be an unwise move to part with Shanahan after this season.
Even if the 49ers lose Sunday, Shanahan will have a better winning percentage than Bill Walsh during his first four seasons Shahahan’s winning percentage is currently .460 while Walsh’s was .421 after his first four years. Walsh also inherited a bad situation and went to a Super Bowl in his third year. The difference, of course, is Walsh won his Super Bowl.
That’s not to say Shanahan is the next Walsh, just that great coaches don’t always get off to fast starts. Perhaps Jim Harbaugh’s rapid ascension in his first three seasons (which was completely unprecedented, by the way) created unfair expectations within the fan base.
One thing I know for certain: Shanahan would immediately be the hottest coaching candidate on the market if the 49ers ever moved on.
It’s also my opinion the 49ers would be in the running for the first overall pick if they had 75% of the other coaches in the NFL and tried to deal with their injury situation this year.
Jake asks: I know it’s pretty low on the list of offseason priorities but is it time to talk about finding the next kicker? Gould‘s best days seems to clearly be in the rear view.
We’ll know within the next few days. Gould’s option giving him guaranteed money for the next two seasons has to be picked up before Sunday. Gould’s 82.6% conversion rate on field goals ranks 19th among kickers, so it’s fair to wonder if the 49ers think they could get the same production at a cheaper price.
Farrier asks: Most improved Niner for 2020?
This was tough because there aren’t that many worthy candidates.
I’d lean toward cornerback Jason Verrett just because he went from afterthought to one of their best defensive players. But we knew Verrett would be good if he could ever stay healthy, so does that really qualify as “improved?”
Defensive end Kerry Hyder leads the team with a personal-best 8.5 sacks. But he wasn’t with the 49ers last season when he had just one sack with Dallas. So would he count as the team’s most improved? That’s questionable.
Defensive tackle Kevin Givens would be a solid choice. He went from appearing in one game while spending the bulk of last season on the practice squad to be a valuable member of the defensive line rotation this year.
Running back Jeff Wilson Jr. improved his production from 27 carries for 105 yards last season to 106 carries for 524 yards in 2020. Wilson also has eight touchdowns.
What about punter Mitch Wishnowsky? He’s ninth in the NFL averaging 47.0 yards per punt this season after ranking 23rd in 2019. And he improved his touchback rate on kickoffs from from 51% to 61%.
I think Wilson probably has the best case. He went from way down the depth chart in 2019 to a prominent contributor on offense in 2020 who carried the team to two wins against the Patriots in October and the Cardinals last weekend.
This story was originally published December 30, 2020 at 7:17 AM.
