49ers mailbag: What’s the price for Stafford? Is sticking with Garoppolo a bad idea?
Before we get to your mailbag questions there are two quick news items to hit.
First, 49ers rookie defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw had surgery on his left knee that he posted about on Instagram this week. The team says it was a “routine cleanup” of the knee stemming from his injury in December against the Dallas Cowboys that prevented him playing in the final two games. He’s expected to be fully ready for the offseason program.
The injury is not believed to be related to the knee issue he had leading up to the NFL draft that prevented Kinlaw from working out at the scouting combine. Kinlaw appeared in 14 games and played 546 snaps, good for 53 percent of the defensive snaps for the season.
Meanwhile, there was good news surrounding the throwing elbow of quarterback Nick Mullens, who will be a restricted free agent when the new league year begins in March. According to an NFL Network report, Mullens did not require Tommy John surgery and is expected to be healthy in time for the start of training camp. How the injury affects his market remains to be seen, but it’s unlikely teams will make Mullens a priority early in the free agency process, given the injury.
Speaking of quarterbacks, let’s get to your questions for this week’s mailbag!
@mattDlovelady asks: Not on board with it yet, but since everyone’s talking about it, what would it take to get Matthew Stafford? I don’t wanna trade a haul of picks for a QB with a long list of injuries (more than Jimmy Garoppolo) even if he played through most. Also, what could they recoup by trading JG? Thanks!
I’m guessing the trade package that lands Stafford will include at least one first-round draft pick and potentially another high selection, perhaps second- or third-round picks in 2022. Will the 49ers be willing to offer that much for Stafford, who isn’t as clear of an upgrade as Deshaun Watson or Aaron Rodgers? I’m dubious.
Keep in mind, the most coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have given for a single player is a second-round draft pick (for Garoppolo in 2017 and pass rusher Dee Ford in 2019). They prize their draft capital in an effort to build something sustainable for years to come. And since they have a quarterback they can fall back on, I’d have to think other teams with no clear solution at quarterback would be willing to offer more in a trade (Indianapolis, New England, New Orleans and Washington come to mind).
Is Stafford better than Garoppolo? Probably. Is his 0-3 playoff record a misnomer when it comes to evaluating him as a quarterback? Yes. It it notable that he hasn’t won a playoff game? Yes. It’s part of the equation, but not a reason to avoid trading for him. But the price has to be right.
@CJCGraddy asks: Given the salary cap issues, should the 49ers go all in on the next 1-2 years much like Denver did with Peyton Manning and then try to sort it out after that.
They might not have much of a choice — particularly with the salary cap expected to be at the $175 million floor, which Lynch said he’s expecting for 2021.
The 49ers have just $9.3 million in cap space at the moment, according to Overthecap.com, and should have more if they release Ford and Weston Richburg. It’s fair to expect significant chunks of their remaining cap space to be allocated for left tackle Trent Williams and a contract extension for All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner. Although those deals could get back-loaded into future seasons when the salary cap is expected to revert to normal.
So, by definition, the 49ers are likely to be at or near their spending limit in 2021, meaning they will be “all in” from a financial perspective.
@rajojack37 asks: Is it crazy to go with edge rusher in the first round and roll with Jimmy G?
Not at all. I think it’s the most reasonable scenario at this point.
Shanahan and Lynch have invested four of their six first-round draft picks on players in the trenches (Solomon Thomas, Mike McGlinchey, Nick Bosa and Kinlaw).
They could use another pass rusher opposite Bosa, given Ford’s uncertain status, and might have to go offensive line again if they lose Williams in free agency. Even if Williams is brought back, an elite center or guard prospect would also be justifiable.
Keeping Garoppolo and taking the best player available at defensive end, offensive line or cornerback is the most likely outcome. But that doesn’t mean the 49ers won’t kick around other ideas.
@ninerpride66 asks: If you were in Lynch’s seat as GM, you have what he has available in a trade, do you get Watson, Stafford, trade up in draft, stand pat with JG or take QB if one falls to 12th?
The only move away from Garoppolo I would make would be trading for Watson. I’d have no problem moving three first-round picks and more to get him because he’s a Hall of Fame talent that would put the 49ers in the Super Bowl conversation as long as he’s healthy. He’s good enough to overcome just about any other shortcomings on the roster and first-round picks can be a crap shoot anyway, particularly if San Francisco were picking later in the first round each year.
Otherwise, I don’t think Stafford will be worth the price to the 49ers that other teams would be willing to pay. I don’t think Aaron Rodgers will be made available and I’m expecting it will be too costly to trade up for one of the top four quarterbacks in the draft, given how many teams picking in the top 10 need quarterbacks.
However, I would be on board with drafting a QB at 12, or moving up a spot or two to take one, but that seems unlikely at the moment. I’m guessing the 49ers add a quarterback in Rounds 2 or 3.
To me, BYU’s Zach Wilson is the first-round quarterback prospect the 49ers could potentially win with quickly (not including Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence, who’s going first overall). Ohio State’s Justin Fields would require Shanahan to change his scheme significantly to fit Fields’ strengths while Trey Lance would likely need to sit for a year before being a starter after playing just 18 games with North Dakota State.
I’d absolutely explore the possibility of trading up for Wilson, but it’s hard to see the New York Jets deciding not just draft Wilson themselves if the 49ers liked him that much. Offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur is a Shanahan disciple and will run a very similar scheme with New York.
@SuperYooperFBM asks: Does it seem to you that if the Niners fix their offensive line problems that they could solve their QB questions? If wins are not a QB stat, then why are injuries always the QB’s fault? Its not like JG had a lot of help early in the year.
I think improving the offensive line will go a long way toward improving their quarterback situation, but I don’t think it will completely solve it. I agree that the offensive line was a serious issue throughout 2020.
The 49ers thought they were getting a top center when they acquired Weston Richburg in 2018, but he’s at the point in his career where leg injuries might prevent him from ever playing at that level again. He never recovered from his 2019 torn patellar tendon well enough to play, leading to the 49ers using Plans B, C and D at center and right guard throughout last season. Improving there would benefit Garoppolo or whoever the quarterback is in 2021.
As far as injuries go, the fact is they’re a massive part of the equation. Russell Wilson has started 144 consecutive games dating to Week 1 of his rookie season in 2012. Tom Brady hasn’t missed a regular season start since 2016. Rodgers hasn’t missed a game since breaking his collarbone in 2017. Part of Eli Manning’s allure was he missed one game over 14 seasons.
Garoppolo has missed 23 games over the past three seasons, two of which were ruined for the 49ers largely because of his injuries. So regardless of who’s to blame, the team has to factor those durability concerns into whatever decision they make. Remember when the Rams kept hoping Sam Bradford would eventually become healthy and live up to his ceiling? The 49ers do not want to find themselves in that situation.
That said, the 49ers might not have the flexibility to make a move for dramatic upgrade at quarterback given how many other teams with better draft capital will also be in the market.
This story was originally published January 27, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
