Rams’ huge trade for Matt Stafford makes the 49ers seem cautious by comparison
The landscape-altering trade over the weekend showed the stark differences between the philosophies guiding the 49ers and the Rams. The move will have major ramifications in the ultra-competitive NFC West.
The deal, of course, was the Los Angeles Rams dealing Jared Goff and a pair of first-round picks to the Detroit Lions for Matthew Stafford, the quarterback many linked to the 49ers as a possible upgrade over Jimmy Garoppolo.
The 49ers were involved in trade conversations with Detroit, but clearly two first-round picks and Goff was a price San Francisco wasn’t willing to beat. And not landing Stafford increases the chances Garoppolo is back as the 49ers’ starter in 2021, barring an unlikely trade for Texans star Deshaun Watson or drafting a prospect good enough to start as a rookie.
Coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have signaled more trust in Garoppolo than the fan base might have, but sticking with controversial players is not entirely outside their character as decision-makers.
“Look at Jimmy’s record when he’s been here,” Shanahan said Dec. 28, referencing the team’s 22-8 record with Garoppolo as the starter and 7-27 mark with without him.
“Jimmy, you can win with. He’s proven that. He’s proven he’s a starting quarterback in this league. We had a couple of other guys who got opportunities this year who played like they have a chance at times to be starting quarterbacks, but they did play like backups overall.”
Big bets made by 49ers
Shanahan and Lynch have made a number of bets on players that didn’t have high Q ratings outside team headquarters. Some worked out and some haven’t. Two that come to mind are defensive lineman Arik Armstead and safety Jimmie Ward, who had checkered injury histories before getting sizable contracts last offseason. Armstead led the team in sacks on the vaunted defensive line in 2019 (but took a significant step back in 2020) while Ward has become an integral player in a passing defense that ranked first and fourth over the last two seasons.
Big bets that haven’t worked out? Defensive end Dee Ford provided juice to the pass rush while playing just 22 percent of the snaps in 2019 because of knee and hamstring injuries, but was a virtual zero in 2020 while missing 15 games with a back problem.
Running back Jerick McKinnon landed a four-year, $30 million contract in 2018 free agency but missed two seasons with ongoing knee injuries before coming back to a minor role in 2020 on a revised contract. Weston Richburg became one of the highest-paid centers in the NFL when he joined San Francisco in 2018 but missed all of this season with a knee injury he suffered in December 2019. It appears unlikely those three players will be back in 2021.
“It is hard. There’s a risk-reward with everything,” Shanahan said. “Some have paid off, some haven’t.”
That recent history proves there’s no exact pattern with that portends to Garoppolo’s ability to stay healthy and effective in 2021. That uncertainty is a reason the 49ers might be willing to make an upgrade to someone more reliable — at the right price.
The 49ers believe they can build a championship winner around a healthy Garoppolo, but the evidence from the last three seasons suggests Garoppolo needs optimal surroundings to win. He’s not the caliber of quarterback that elevates a franchise on his own. That’s a differentiating factor from the elite to the notches below.
From the Rams’ perspective, trading Goff and two first-round picks for Stafford is a big swing. Los Angeles is set to go seven straight seasons, from 2017 to 2023, without making a pick in the first round of the draft.
Rams make big moves
Goff in 2016 was the last player the Rams took in Round 1. They traded two firsts, two seconds and a third for the right to take the Cal star first overall in a trade with the Tennessee Titans. Then they moved first-round picks for receiver Brandin Cooks and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, and moved off their first in 2019 for picks in Rounds 2 and 3 from Atlanta.
And now they’ve sent two first-round picks to Detroit with Goff for Stafford. In all, L.A. spent four first-round picks and more to eventually settle on Stafford after things with Goff soured. It’s abundantly clear the Rams had to pay more than other teams in order to get Goff and the remaining $43.25 million in guarantees off their books.
Which isn’t a good development for Rams coach Sean McVay, who endorsed Goff’s four-year, $134 million extension in 2019 despite having two more years of control left on Goff’s rookie contract. McVay has proven to be a very good offensive coach, but the vacillation on Goff leaves plenty of questions about his ability to help his organization make its most important decisions on players. All the decisions moving forward will have to be made without a first-round pick in the war chest until 2024.
The 49ers have won four straight games against the Rams and Goff, who combined to post a rough 70.34 passer rating in those contests. Will Stafford be an upgrade? It’s more than likely. But getting that upgrade at quarterback means it will be harder to replenish the roster without first-round picks moving forward.
San Francisco has operated on the other side of the team building spectrum. Lynch and Shanahan have prized first-round picks while also trading back in Round 1 to acquire more selections. They did that in 2017 and 2020 (those drafts also included moving up in Round 1 for linebacker Reuben Foster and receiver Brandon Aiyuk, respectively, using picks they acquired in trading back). And they traded future All-Pro DeForest Buckner for a first-round pick, which is the exact opposite philosophy the Rams have used when dealing picks for star players.
There’s no doubt the competing philosophies will provide an interesting backdrop when Stafford lines up against San Francisco next fall. That is, unless the 49ers deal Houston whatever draft picks it would take to land Watson.
This story was originally published January 31, 2021 at 1:02 PM.
