NFL notebook: Wentz trade gives 49ers’ insight on Garoppolo; Watt hits open market
The 49ers might have gleaned some valuable information Thursday with quarterback Carson Wentz reportedly getting dealt from the Philadelphia Eagles to the Indianapolis Colts.
In some ways, Wentz’s situation in Philadelphia mirrored what San Francisco is going through with Garoppolo. Both are on lucrative contracts, haven’t been as productive as needed and injuries have created questions about durability.
But that’s where the similarities end. The relationship between Wentz and the Eagles had reportedly been deteriorating for some time, but that doesn’t appear to be the case with Garoppolo. Coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch have maintained for months they believe they can win with Garoppolo and aren’t eager to make a move at quarterback unless it’s the right upgrade at the right price.
That hasn’t been the case with other signal-callers that have or will be moved this offseason, like Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Wentz, Ben Roethlisberger and potentially Deshaun Watson. The writing was (or is) clearly on the wall in those cases, while the talk about Garoppolo being on his way out has come via speculation from outside the organization.
Still, the Wentz trade could give clarity to Garoppolo’s potential value on the open market should the 49ers decide to go another direction, like pushing all their chips in on Watson.
The Eagles received a 2021 third-round draft pick and conditional 2022 second-round draft pick from Indianapolis for Wentz, who signed a four-year, $128 million extension with Philadelphia in 2019. The second-round pick could turn into a first-round pick if Wentz plays at least 75 percent of the snaps — or 70 percent of the snaps with the Colts reaching the playoffs.
Wentz last played a full 16-game schedule in 2019, the same as Garoppolo, and completed 63.9% of his throws for 4,039 yards, 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Those numbers were good for a passer rating of 93.1 while his expected points added (EPA) was 90.5, good for sixth among eligible quarterbacks, according to ESPN.
Garoppolo’s 16-game stats in 2019: 69.1% completion, 3,978 yards, 27 touchdown passes, 13 interceptions and a 102.0 passer rating. His EPA was 69.3 to rank 12th. Garoppolo averaged 8.4 yards per attempt to Wentz’s 6.3 because Garoppolo had 131 fewer pass attempts on the season. Garoppolo was more efficient overall, which also speaks to Shanahan’s offense and the weapons helping Garoppolo, while the Eagles have been struggling to field a competent receiving corps for years.
They aren’t one-for-one comparisons, but Wentz and Garoppolo should have similar values in the eyes of the league, which proves the 49ers would be wise to try trading Garoppolo rather than outright releasing him and getting nothing in return if they decide to go another direction. The Wentz situation shows that even in the worst situation a talented quarterback with any sort of track record still has value on the trade market.
In the unlikely event Garoppolo gets dealt, he should be worth something in the ballpark of what the Eagles got for Wentz.
J.J. Watt is free, but doesn’t make sense for 49ers
The Houston Texans aren’t exactly the envy of the NFL at the moment. On top of all the drama with Watson, the team has also decided to move on from its most decorated player in team history, defensive lineman J.J. Watt, a three-time defensive player of the year and member of the All-Decade team for the 2010s.
And while the 49ers have made it no secret they’ve built their defense around the defensive line, there doesn’t appear to be a match for Watt, who has been linked to the Green Bay Packers (in his home state of Wisconsin), the Cleveland Browns, Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans.
Watt’s star power could still command a lucrative contract which the 49ers would be wise to avoid giving to another aging star with injury issues. The team is already somewhat hamstrung by the uncertain status of defensive end Dee Ford, whose injury guarantees in his contract might make him difficult to release this offseason after missing 15 games with neck and back issues in 2020.
Plus, any significant financial commitment would complicate looming big money deals for star left tackle Trent Williams (who could command $20 million per season) and All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner. Arik Armstead’s five-year, $85 million contract signed last offseason likely prevents the 49ers from making a significant investment in a veteran defensive lineman unless they lose Williams in free agency. Armstead’s cap hits over the next three seasons: $12.5 million, $20 million and $21.74 million.
Meanwhile, star defensive end Nick Bosa will be eligible for a contract extension at some point over that span. His brother, Joey, signed a five-year, $135 million extension with the Chargers last summer. It’s more likely the 49ers address the defensive line again in the upcoming NFL Draft or sign a veteran at a much cheaper price than Watt.
Bosa, Thomas expect to be ready for regular season
Speaking of Bosa, it sounds the 49ers should expect their former No. 2 overall draft pick to be back in the mix come training camp. If there was a silver lining to Bosa’s 2020 ACL tear, it’s that it came in Week 2, allowing him time to get back to full strength in time for 2021.
The same is true for fellow defensive lineman Solomon Thomas, the third-overall pick in 2017 who tore his ACL moments after Bosa against the Jets. Though Thomas is slated for unrestricted free agency when the new league year begins March 17.
Thomas spoke with Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area and indicated he believes both he and Bosa will be ready for the start of training camp.
“Oh, definitely, I have no doubt in my mind,” Thomas told Maiocco. “There’s no reason to have us back for OTAs (in June). But if you wanted us back for OTAs, I believe both of us are at a place where we could get back for then. We’re athletes, we’re competitors, we want to be back as soon as possible.”
The 49ers still managed to finish with the NFL’s fifth-ranked defense in yardage in 2020 despite not having Bosa, Ford, Thomas, Sherman and others for significant chunks of the season. Repeating that production will be challenging with defensive coordinator Robert Saleh now the head coach of the New York Jets.
▪ The NFL this week released a memo to all teams saying the salary cap floor for 2021, which had been at $175 million, will be lifted to $180 million after negotiations with the players’ association.
That would give San Francisco roughly $13 million in cap space before making other moves to create more room, like cutting costly veterans such as center Weston Richburg and/or Ford, or restructuring other contracts like Garoppolo’s.
