49ers mailbag: Why QB Trey Lance should be San Francisco’s pick at No. 3
First, some notable news from the NFL.
The league on Tuesday officially announced what’s been coming for a while: There will be a 17th game on every team’s schedule starting this season.
The games will be interconference, with divisions playing one another based on the previous year’s standings. The 49ers and the rest of the NFC West will play the AFC North, and San Francisco will travel to Cincinnati to play the Bengals after the two sides finished fourth in their divisions in 2020.
With the odd number of games on the schedule, the league decided to keep things fair by having conferences rotate getting nine home games in a season. Each AFC team will get nine home games 2021 while the NFC teams will get their nine home games in 2022. That way the playoff races in each conference won’t be impacted by teams having more home games than another.
If that unbalance causes some discomfort, than perhaps it will be a reason to get an 18th game on the schedule later down the line.
Additionally, commissioner Rodger Goodell said Tuesday he expects stadiums to be at 100% capacity for games during the coming season, which is great news all around now that vaccines are getting distributed and the pandemic numbers continue to decline.
Anyway, the 49ers made a trade last week that has caused a stir, so let’s get to your questions for this week’s mailbag!
David asks: I know you said you like Trey Lance over Justin Fields (very surprised to hear that) because of his experience in a pro style offense. How much does the lack of game experience concern you, if at all? I like Fields over Lance because of that factor, among others.
I guess it’s time to plant the flag. I think North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance would be the best pick for the 49ers at No. 3 assuming Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson go first and second to the Jaguars and Jets, respectively.
That’s not to say I don’t think Justin Fields or (gulp) Mac Jones won’t be good players, I just prefer Lance to San Francisco for a few different reasons. I think Fields has a chance to be a star in the NFL, I just like Lance a touch more and don’t disagree with anyone who likes Fields better.
First, I think this is the most important decision Kyle Shanahan is going to make as a head coach. And I think he’s an aggressive guy who is tired of being labeled as a coach who just wants a mostly stationary quarterback like Kirk Cousins, Matt Schaub or Matt Ryan to run his system in a robotic way.
I believe Shanahan is smart enough to look around the league and see that winning outside the structure of the offense can lift the ceiling for any team. Think about the plays in which Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen and a host of others make to elevate their teams in big moments by using their athleticism, scrambling around and making big throws. Cousins, Schaub, Ryan and Jimmy Garoppolo aren’t those kinds of players — and neither is Jones, in my opinion.
So I think Shanahan looked at this quarterback class with Lawrence, Wilson, Fields and Lance and realized he could get one of those dynamic players at pick No. 3.
Does that mean he’s absolutely not taking Jones? I can’t say that for certain, but I would be surprised he’d be so stubborn. The traditional pocket quarterback is going away. The lone exception is Tom Brady, who might be the ultimate exception in just about every sense.
“If you’re going to draw it up, you’re going to draw the biggest, fastest strongest and best quarterback in the pocket,” Shanahan said in Monday’s news conference when asked about his affinity for Cousins. “I’ll also to tell you I love Kirk.”
Biggest, fastest, strongest, you say?
Speaking of Lance, he’s built like a brick house at nearly 6-foot-4 and 224 pounds and he’s still growing into his body. He has the biggest arm in the draft and can make throws on the run. He would give Shanahan an excellent deep-ball thrower he hasn’t had with Garoppolo.
He also set an NCAA record for most passes thrown in a season, 287, without throwing an interception. He runs like Cam Newton, with many examples of bowling through arm tackles from defensive linemen and linebackers. And he’s easy to project because he played in a pro-style offense with the similar skeleton to what he’d run under Shanahan.
An obvious critique: He needs to learn how to slide and avoid taking big hits at the next level. But his aggressive running style against FCS defenders should be commended. He’s not afraid of contact, which is a good trait. He’s also a former safety who wound up at North Dakota State because Division I programs didn’t want him to be a quarterback. Talk about a chip on your shoulder.
I also think it’s notable Shanahan mentioned John Elway, unprompted, Monday. Elway was one of the most physically gifted prospects in history. He had a rifle for an arm and the athleticism to make plays with his legs. Elway, of course, helped Kyle Shanahan’s father, Mike, win two Super Bowls in 1997 and 1998.
I think Lance has that kind of ceiling, but there’s a caveat.
He needs a year to develop. He’ll turn 21 in May and only played in one subpar game in 2020 while his season was mostly lost due to the pandemic. As a red-shirt freshman in 2019, he was spectacular, albeit against so-so competition. But I think, right now, he’s better at consistently making his progressions than Fields (who could and will get better at that in the NFL).
Lance in 2019 completed 67% of his throws to non-NFL-caliber receivers, with 28 touchdowns and no picks while adding 1,100 yards on the ground with 14 rushing touchdowns.
Think about what a big quarterback with a physical running style could do in Shanahan’s offense in short-yardage and red-zone situations. Jones doesn’t give Shanahan any of that.
So why is he the best fit for the 49ers? Because he could sit behind Garoppolo for a year, get comfortable in the system, continue learning how to read defenses and be in the best situation for his development. In some ways, he’s the ultimate luxury pick if the 49ers decide to stash him for a season.
I think that would alleviate the concerns about his overall lack of playing time and rawness to his game. After all, when most of the knocks on you as a prospect are out of your control (lack of experience, so-so competition), that’s a good sign for a prospect.
Brian asks: It was pretty obvious from the presser yesterday that they are going QB at three. What do you think it would be a trade offer that “is too good to pass up” for Jimmy? And what percentage do you believe he will be in the roster week 1?
I don’t think Garoppolo has much trade value right now, which is one of the reasons why I think the 49ers would be inclined to keep him.
Why trade him when his stock is bottoming out? And, if they did get rid of him, they would need to get an additional quarterback for depth even after drafting one at No. 3. Do they want to draft another, maybe on Day 3? And would giving Garoppolo the boot and starting a rookie really give Shanahan a better shot at winning the Super Bowl? I don’t think so.
I think the 49ers would be willing to trade Garoppolo for a first- or second-round pick. The problem is no one is offering that right now. So it would behoove them to wait until Garoppolo plays well, proves he can continue to win and then move him when it’s absolutely necessary.
However, I think there’s a roughly 50-50 shot Garoppolo’s elsewhere at the start of the season, only because I could see the rookie coming in and beating out Garoppolo for the starting job in training camp. If that happens, there’s no reason to pay $24.1 million to a backup. But if Garoppolo wins the starting job, then they should keep him around to allow the rookie to develop as a backup for a season, or until Garoppolo gets hurt.
Bam Bam asks: 2nd round pick, what position do you think we’ll target?
Cornerback or pass rusher, since those were the positions the 49ers were likely going to target at No. 12 before deciding to move up for a quarterback.
I think this is a good draft class for cornerbacks on Day 2. Kentucky’s Kelvin Joseph is someone that stands out to me. There’s also a chance Northwestern’s Greg Newsom would also make sense. Others: Elijah Molden (Washington), Asante Samuel Jr. (Florida State) and Jevon Holland (Oregon).
Rylan asks: Jimmy G seems to be a guy who is loved by his teammates. Is there a worry that bringing in another QB will destabilize the locker room?
I don’t think so. The players mostly trust Shanahan and general manager John Lynch, who have built a strong foundation in the locker room.
And that’s exactly the point of having a strong locker room, so a team can handle adverse situations like this.
Garoppolo is close with a number of his teammates. But those guys also understand the business of football and another quarterback might give them the best chance at winning. Even if it makes some of them unhappy, I think they’d come around.
To put a bow on that point: no one in the locker room wants to go through another season like 2018 or 2020.
Jake asks: Is all the very public Mac Jones fawning an attempt to get someone to trade up to No. 2 to take Jones and then have Fields available at No. 3 a la Trubisky?
I’ve thought a lot about what all the Jones noise is about. And while I haven’t come to any concrete conclusions, I think it’s mostly about Shanahan’s reputation around the league for liking quarterbacks like Jones/Cousins/Garoppolo.
There hasn’t been much concrete evidence the 49ers are leaning that way, just a lot of speculation from a lot of people. Is that warranted? Perhaps, but I’ll believe they like Jones more than the other guys only after they pick him.
I don’t think the 49ers are too worried about playing games at this point. They pick at No. 3 and made it clear they’re good with at least three quarterbacks, which have to include Lawrence and Wilson and at least one of the Lance/Fields/Jones trio. They’re guaranteed one of those guys regardless of who gets drafted at two.
Brandon asks: How much do Jimmy G’s injuries have to do with trading up? (Wish someone would’ve asked Kyle and John this)
It’s a big part. And yes, Shanahan addressed it Monday.
“The more you look into this league, especially our four years here, it’s very hard to succeed when your starting quarterback doesn’t stay healthy or you don’t have one of those true starting quarterbacks,” Shanahan said. “We’ve gotten that with Jimmy. He’s played at a very high level when he’s played. It’s been tough the two years he’s missed, it’s been hard to compete the same way.”
I believe Shanahan when he says he thinks he can win with Garoppolo. I think that was evident in 2019. I also think the injury issues are an enormous factor because he’s tired of missing the playoffs. He’s only made it once in four seasons, with two completely derailed by Garoppolo’s ACL and high ankle sprains.
That’s not the only element, of course. I think Shanahan is making this move because he wants to lift the ceiling of his offense because he knows he has to compete with Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Allen and Watson to win Super Bowls. That’s why I think he’ll take one of those dynamic quarterbacks at No. 3.
RedGoldLion asks: Do you believe the Niners really don’t have intel about what the Jets will do?
They might. But I’m not sure they really need a whole lot. The Jets are likely either going to take Wilson or trade out. No matter what happens with them, San Francisco will end up with Wilson, Lance, Fields or Jones.
Marcus asks: Pure speculation on my part, but could you see the Niners sending Fred Warner to the Jets to swap 2 and 3? I think it’s possible the Jets like Kyle Pitts but they’re waiting to see who can send them the better offer between Niners and Falcons.
No. There’s no reason to get rid of Warner right now, especially after making the trade.
I think there might have been a case before moving up because Garoppolo’s big money would have made it difficult to fit his looming extension under the salary cap. But now that the 49ers are going to have a quarterback on a rookie contract, there’s no reason not to keep Warner and give him a market-setting deal. He deserves it.
R asks: Hey Chris. What is the difference between a national reporter’s sources and a beat writer’s sources? Do they overlap? And have you ever had the opportunity to break a shelter level story but held back?
Great question. The answer is complicated.
As you know, national reporters tend to break a lot, if not all, the biggest stories around the league. They are gatekeepers of information and can often leverage what they know to get big news stories. It’s rare for local beat reporters to be so plugged around the league that they can do the same thing.
The national reporters are often in constant communication with the league’s top power brokers (i.e. agents, owners, general managers and head coaches). And if they get a tip from one source, they can quickly confirm stories with other high-level sources.
National reporters can also be used to push agendas or draw attention to certain players or agents. If a player signs somewhere, his agent wants as much exposure as possible for his client, so the agent will often go to a national reporter with millions of Twitter followers rather than a beat reporter with 50,000. It’s the best way to get publicity.
National reporters also have the benefit of not having to worry about being around their subjects all the time. Beat writers are around teams constantly and in the locker room. That not to say local reporters should avoid unflattering stories, but it’s a more difficult balance because they don’t want to burn good sources of information altogether. In some ways, that’s the toughest part of the job.
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This story was originally published March 31, 2021 at 7:26 AM.
