Ask an expert: How do the quarterbacks in the NFL draft fit the San Francisco 49ers?
The 49ers have an advantage when it comes to finding a quarterback in the NFL draft with their No. 3 pick.
They appear ready to contend, health permitting, after coming minutes away from winning the Super Bowl at the end of the 2019 season. In fact, no team has ever drafted a quarterback this early less than two years removed from a Super Bowl berth.
The earliest a team has ever taken a quarterback so soon after a Super Bowl bid was the Green Bay Packers in 1967, when they took Don Horn, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Head coach Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch, of course, traded three first-round picks and a 2022 third-round choice to move up nine spots in the March 26 trade with the Miami Dolphins to take a quarterback.
San Francisco is primed to find a new face of the franchise to eventually replace Jimmy Garoppolo. And their roster and coaching staff, according to former NFL quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan, has a chance to put that player in a position to excel no matter which prospect they end up choosing April 29. With Garoppolo, they don’t appear to be in a rush to start the new quarterback right away, perhaps allowing him time to acclimate and develop.
“I think any quarterback that ends up there is going to be successful,” O’Sullivan said in a phone interview with The Bee.
O’Sullivan is currently the head coach at Patrick Henry High School in San Diego. He also operates a successful YouTube channel called “The QB School” with some 114,000 subscribers that breaks down college quarterback prospects while also diving into other football teaching points. The UC Davis alum played one season for the 49ers during his five-year career while also spending time with six other teams.
The situation a prospect joins can often dictate that players’ success. A recent example is Chiefs’ star Patrick Mahomes, who sat for the 2017 season before getting inserted in the regular season finale. Kansas City drafted Mahomes after double-digit wins in three of the previous four seasons and back-to-back playoff berths. Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers sat behind Hall of Famer Brett Favre for three seasons before taking over as starter in Green Bay after four consecutive playoff appearances.
“In any sport,” O’Sullivan said, “you can look across the landscape of pro sports and realize, ‘Man, that was so lucky to go to that organization or that city, that timing with that staff and that owner.’ All those things matter and so it’s probably not as cool to think about how luck plays a role in it. But it really does.”
The 49ers are clearly banking on being that kind of destination for whichever player they choose despite having just one winning season over the last four while two others were derailed by Garoppolo’s injuries.
So we asked O’Sullivan, who has closeley studied all the quarterback prospects expected to go early in the draft, for his opinions and analyses on BYU’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields, North Dakota State’s Trey Lance and Alabama’s polarizing prospect, Mac Jones (we skipped Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence because he’s widely expected to go first-overall to Jacksonville).
Is Wilson a one-year wonder?
Like first-overall pick Joe Burrow last year, Wilson flew to the top of draft boards in 2021 after just one standout season. Wilson completed just 62% of his throws for 2,382 yards with a 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions in 2019. In 2020: 74 percent, 3,692 yards, 33 touchdowns and just three interceptions.
And while his game film from the season showcased an ability to throw from multiple angles, throw accurate passes deep down field and make explosive plays in and out of the pocket, doing it for just one season could create a dilemma for talent evaluators.
“You have to really go back and look at what was the difference between 2019 and 2020,” O’Sullivan said. “Obviously he wasn’t on the same trajectory, and so is that acceleration going to continue? Are we peaked? Can we project that same growth is not going to plateau out? Or is this what it is and it’s already good enough because he’s a superstar? You hear people say that all the time, he’s already a superstar. I’m not sure, and I think that is the more interesting thing about him.”
Wilson is the favorite to go to the Jets at No. 2 overall. But a lot could change with the draft still four weeks away. New York could decide to run it back with Sam Darnold and trade out to another team needing a quarterback. Or they could take Fields or Lance because they like those players more.
If the Jets take Wilson, they would be getting a player that reminds some of Rodgers and Mahomes, given his ability to whip throws from multiple angles. But some question BYU’s strength of schedule and the fact Wilson rarely played under pressure behind a strong offensive line.
“I think he’s the smoothest, mechanically sound, just rips the ball all over the place, and it’s fun to watch,” O’Sullivan said. “And I think it’s unfortunate, and I cringe a little bit when people take shots at the schedule and those types of things because he doesn’t make the schedule. He’s not picking who they’re playing. ... But he made the absolute most of where he was in a pandemic year, and I think you got to look at that and applaud him for it.”
There’s also a conversation surrounding athleticism and this quarterback class. O’Sullivan believes Wilson fits the mold of the dynamic, athletic quarterbacks that have become all the rage in the NFL.
“When you watch the film, he is a really, really good athlete,” O’Sullivan said. “He is more explosive … he’s twitchy. He’s got explosiveness to him when he runs, he makes people miss. Is he going to be Lamar Jackson on Sundays? No, he’s not. Can he still create and do the things he did at BYU outside the pocket, outside the structure of the offense? Absolutely. And that’s the way the league is evolving too and I don’t think people are losing their minds when they say, ‘hey, I could see him doing those types of things on Sundays.’ I agree, he can. Just can he do it consistently and why the big jump?”
Is the Justin Fields criticism warranted?
ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky made headlines this week when he appeared on the “Pat McAfee Show” and said league sources were questioning Fields’ habits away from the field.
“I’ve heard that there are issues with Justin Fields’ work ethic,” Orlovsky said. “The second thing is … Where is his desire to go be a great quarterback? I think that there’s a desire to be a big-time athlete, from what is expressed to me, but where is his desire to be a great quarterback? And to be great, you gotta be willing to find the things that you are not good at and just freaking grind on them.”
Orlovsky took to Twitter on Thursday to clarify his comments, saying he’s spoken to people close to Fields that say the opposite.
Regardless, those criticisms are nothing new for Black quarterbacks. They often come up each year and are often debunked, proven to be lazy takes that often come with at least a hint of racism.
Fields (6-3, 227) is one of the most accomplished quarterbacks in school history after transferring from Georgia for the 2019 season. He became the first Big Ten quarterback to have 40 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns in the same season.
“What I make of the criticism is that it’s absolute bulls--- the way that it’s framed and the way it was shared,” O’Sullivan said. “Now, that doesn’t mean that teams aren’t investigating what the truth is. And they absolutely are doing those things, having conversations with the equipment staff, having conversations with strength and conditioning, having conversations with teammates. Trust me, I’ve been through this process. I know they’re finding ways to get as much information as possible. I just find it hard to believe, from what I can see, strictly from the surface, with a totally incomplete analysis.”
Fields put together arguably the best single-game performance in college football last season in the semifinal playoff game against Clemson. He took a huge hit to his side from linebacker James Skalski and went on to complete 22 of 28, 385 yards and six touchdown passes to avenge the loss to the Tigers in the same game a year prior.
“To battle back after he got hit against Clemson, and really, in my opinion, outplayed Trevor Lawrence on a national stage, to say that he doesn’t want it or there’s evidence of work ethic issues. That’s a total crock,” O’Sullivan said. “I don’t see evidence of that. If somebody’s going to say that, they need to say where they’re getting that information from and that person needs to provide some evident and context to back it up.”
Fields is the most popular prospect for San Francisco at No. 3. Many believe he would be the top player taken many other drafts, particularly after showing off his 4.4 speed and rocket arm at his recent pro day. And he might play well quickly if his NFL team adapts similar concepts to what he ran at Ohio State.
“Wherever he goes, he’s going to do very similar things to what he did there,” O’Sullivan said. “He is an absolute freak of an athlete, on a field of freaks. There’s clips of him chasing down his own tailback blocking for him. There’s plays with him throwing rifles inside the pocket, outside the pocket, outside the numbers, down the field. Now, is everything perfect? No, not for any of these guys.”
What to make of Lance’s limited sample?
North Dakota State’s Trey Lance might be the most boom-or-bust prospect in the class. He only played one full season as a red-shirt freshman in 2019 — and it was a good one. He won the Walter Payton Award (the FCS’ version of the Heisman), while helping the Bison go undefeated and win a national championship. It was the first 16-0 finish in college football since 1894.
Lance set the NCAA record with 287 consecutive passes without throwing an interception. He completed 67% percent of his throws while accounting for 3,886 yards, including 1,100 on the ground.
But he played just one game in 2020 due to the pandemic, and it wasn’t quite as spectacular as his play from 2019. Which means NFL teams, including the 49ers, are going to have to project what Lance can become given his relatively small sample of work.
“It is, in my opinion, by far, the hardest to project in terms of what it might look like going forward,” O’Sullivan said. “I think he’s already shown the full skill set to be successful on Sundays.”
Lance (6-3, 224) is a notch below Fields in terms of pure athleticism. But some believe is more of a rhythm passer. The offense he played in features steps and drops that translate smoothly to the NFL, and Lance is known for being a quick thinker, which shows up in his ability to make progressions. But the lack of playing time raises questions.
“To say that with any certainty, that, ‘yeah I’ve seen the full catalog of everything we would like him to do over the course of the next decade, in his abbreviated catalog of college football,’ it’s just not fair or authentic, in my opinion,” O’Sullivan said.
“Can you project that he could eventually be the best of the group? Maybe that’s a bit of a stretch. But could be absolutely be a Pro Bowl, high top end-caliber quarterback in the league for a long time? Absolutely. But again, my takes are totally incomplete. ... (But) when you turn on the film, he’s a very, very impressive prospect who is I think the youngest of the group and potentially has the highest ceiling of the entire group.”
The ceiling might be what the 49ers bet on if they decide to take Lance. Shanahan said last week the ideal scenario for any rookie quarterback may be to sit behind a starter and learn. That’s a view that’s widely shared about Lance given his immense raw ability paired with his inexperience.
“I think Trey Lance can make every single throw, I think he’s athletic, a great runner, can run between the tackles, got the ability to create on his own,” O’Sullivan said. “Now, is he consistently on film going through what I would consider Sunday reads from within the pocket and moving the ball down the field all the time? No, but that’s not what they’re asking him to do. So again, it’s both what’s not the film and then the next level of all these analyses is how do you project him into your organization?”
Does Shanahan really prefer Mac Jones?
There’s been a ton of chatter about Shanahan’s preference for a Kirk Cousins-type quarterback and Jones fits that bill as the least-athletic of the group. But Jones will remain in the mix until the pick is made, which has inspired a slew of “49ers fans will riot!” Tweets since Jones has been linked to the 49ers as soon as the trade was made.
And aside from Tom Brady and perhaps Garoppolo, it’s been difficult for teams in recent seasons to contend without quarterbacks who offer the athleticism to consistently extend plays with their legs and run for first downs. Jones is known for his work in the pocket, ability to read defenses and deliver accurate throws, though many believe he has the weakest arm of this group.
O’Sullivan was asked if Jones could overcome those athletic limitations and become the best quarterback in the class.
“For sure. Yes,” he said. “And to expand on that, so much of what will be Mac Jones’ story will be where does he end up? To your point, I don’t think anybody thinks he’s going to go out there and run a 4.4. But does he have the capacity to move around the pocket? Can he create space within the pocket? Absolutely. Is it quite as unbelievably good like Joe Burrow? Probably not. No. But he still had an amazing season. He got one opportunity to play at Alabama. I loved watching Alabama’s offense this year. I think it was different with him in there with what they were asking him to do, with what he was able to do consistently. So yeah, absolutely he can go in there and do all of those things.”
Still, given the way the league is going, it might be a stretch to trade three first-round for a quarterback that doesn’t offer the play making of Mahomes, Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson and Josh Allen. 49ers fans on Twitter seem to agree.
“You look across the landscape of the league and the league is evolving,” O’Sullivan said, “and there are just some organizations that are trying to play catch-up with the position, or appear to be trying to play catch-up with the position, and it’s just unfortunate that Mac Jones is coming up now as opposed to 15 years ago when it was the anomaly to have the best athlete as the quarterback. Now, some of the best athletes in the draft are the quarterbacks.”
Shanahan and Lynch, of course, attended Jones’ pro day on Tuesday, a day after their press conference discussing the trade with reporters. Adding fuel to the Jones’ fire has been the insistence of NBC Sports analyst Chris Simms, who happens to be one of Shanahan’s closest friends, that Jones would be the best fit for San Francisco.
Shanahan said Simms is not privy to his decision at No. 3.
“Chris talks about everything,” Shanahan said. “Therefore, I haven’t been able to talk to him in a couple of years. Anyone who you’re friends with who speaks in the media and people think you’re friends with them, that means you’re not allowed to tell them anything. That’s why he doesn’t even ask me stuff because if he does ask me something and I tell him, then he can’t say it, but Chris does a good job with that stuff and I respect listening to him.”
Which quarterback best fits the 49ers?
Back to the early point about the importance of situation, O’Sullivan believes Shanahan can get the most out of any of these quarterbacks given his history as one of the league’s best designers of offense. O’Sullivan was asked which would be his favorites for Shanahan.
“I personally think, I don’t think this a hot take by any means, but that Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Justin Fields are my favorite three,” O’Sullivan said.
“Now, I also am a huge fan of Kellen Mond and we’re probably not going to talk about him. I don’t think he’s going to go third overall, but I’m also a big fan of his. Any of those six guys, if they were to end up in San Francisco, potentially could be the best because of the situation, because of the coaching, because of what they’re walking into as an organization,” he continued.
“So, again, how much of this is luck and context with where they fall? I personally think the 49ers have at least three of those quarterbacks and would be happy with any of them. They have to have said that as an organization, and that’s why they made the move. I’m sure they have their favorite, they might get their favorite, but we won’t know until you write the book.”
What about Lance?
“I think he would be great,” he said. “I think Kyle Shanahan, to me, is a wide zone, play action, everything looks like the run, he does a great job scheming people open and gives his quarterback a lot of opportunities to be successful throwing the ball with what they’re doing in the run game, how creative they’ve been historically, basically every stop he’s ever been.
“I don’t think there’s any reason for all those guys to not be successful there. I think it’s hard for me to say, ‘Trey Lance for sure is way better than Justin Fields.’ There’s no evidence for me to say that I can tell the difference between those two in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. I think they would both do well there. Which one would do the best? I think anybody tells you with any certainty is just speculating.”
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This story was originally published April 2, 2021 at 7:08 AM.
