Three things we learned from the 49ers’ brain trust before their critical NFL draft
49ers coach Kyle Shanahan decided not to draft Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson in 2017 because he was hoping to land Kirk Cousins in free agency in 2018. He then signed off on Jimmy Garoppolo’s five-year, $137.5 million contract during his first full offseason.
Now, Shanahan is trying to replace Garoppolo, trading three first-round picks and a third-rounder to Miami for the No. 3 pick in Thursday’s NFL draft.
Shanahan might be one of the best play-callers and designers of offense in the NFL. But it’s clear during his four seasons making the quarterback-related decisions with the 49ers he’s far from infallible. He wouldn’t have made the biggest trade in franchise history if he had already gotten this right.
And given that NFL decision-makers miss on roughly 70% of quarterbacks drafted in the first round, it’s absolutely fair to wonder if Shanahan is on the verge of making a mistake his coaching career will never recover from.
The growing feeling is Shanahan on Thursday will take Alabama quarterback Mac Jones, the least athletic quarterback among the five expected to go at the top of the first round. Jones (6-foot-2, 217 pounds) has average size and an average arm, but impresses some with his quick processing and accuracy, two traits Shanahan holds dear when evaluating quarterbacks.
Jones recently won a national championship against Ohio State after one of the best statistical seasons in recent memory, throwing for 4,500 yards with 41 touchdowns to just four interceptions with a loaded supporting cast. The Tide’s top two receivers, Heisman winner Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle, are expected to go in the first half of Round 1 after the team had two first-round wideouts in 2020, Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs. A question about Jones is whether his loaded supporting cast propped him up.
ESPN’s draft analyst Todd McShay over the weekend wrote he believes the 49ers organization is split between Jones and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, a far more athletic option akin to the mobile, strong-armed quarterbacks that are popular throughout the league.
“I’m told that many in the 49ers’ personnel department have pushed for North Dakota State QB Trey Lance but that coach Kyle Shanahan wants to draft Alabama’s Mac Jones,” McShay wrote. “One person I spoke to even heard that Shanahan might ‘acquiesce’ to the scouting department on the selection, but others have said that seems unlikely. At this time of year, there is a lot of seed planting in the rumor mill, and it could certainly be the case here.“
NFL Network reported Sunday night the 49ers have all but ruled out Ohio State’s Justin Fields, perhaps the most popular option among fans, leaving Lance and Jones as the two likely options remaining, assuming Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and BYU’s Zach Wilson are off the board with the first two picks, as expected.
Let’s look at the key takeaways from Monday’s half-hour news conference previewing Shanahan and general manager John Lynch’s decision.
1. Shanahan is not swayed by public perception
49ers fans in recent weeks have made things overwhelming clear on social media: They do not want Jones to be the pick. If he is, it might go down as the least-popular decision in team history, full stop.
Which would put Jones, if he’s the choice, in a tough situation. He could only win over the fan base by winning games, and the expectations are extraordinarily high given San Francisco is investing three first-round picks in him with a roster ready to contend. Shanahan acknowledged that much Monday.
“I feel somewhat bad for whoever we ended up taking that all this, ‘you trade whatever, three ones,’ which I don’t get how people think that, but, you traded three ones and you did all this stuff to make the biggest move in the history of the organization. That’s a little dramatic to me,” Shanahan said.
Overall, Shanahan and Lynch sounded defensive about fans being against Jones and trading away an important haul to get him. Shanahan and Lynch are correct in noting they shouldn’t be swayed by fans’ opinions, but the overwhelming angst will be tangible regardless, until Jones wins games.
“I think our job is to make the right decision,” Lynch said. “We’ve been charged with making the right decision for this football club and that’s what Kyle and I always set out to do, is do our best. We include a lot of people. I think we have an incredible thorough (process), and I know this process has been as thorough as any I’ve ever been a part of.”
The two reiterated they wanted to control their own fate and paid a premium to move up nine spots a month before the draft by making the trade official March 26. There’s a feeling Jones could have been available at pick Nos. 6 or 7 and a trade on draft night might not have cost as much. But trading to No. 3 gave the 49ers piece of mind knowing they could go through the full evaluation process and remove the unknown variables in a competitive quarterback market.
“If you would have been excited about one of these guys at 12, then you should be excited at three,” Shanahan said. “It’s about whether you get (a quarterback). So, let us go through the process. We’re going to get a good one. Yeah, I wish I could take that anxiety away from people, but that’s because people get excited.”
Of course, Jones could end up being the next Drew Brees and help the 49ers contend for Super Bowls for the next decade-plus. Shanahan would be hailed as the next great quarterback genius and all the angst leading up to Thursday would be comical in hindsight.
But projecting any rookie quarterback to become a sure-fire Hall of Famer is a major stretch, and not one that Shanahan, or anyone, can make with certainty. It’s fair to wonder if Shanahan will fall in the bucket of play caller who is far better at calling plays than choosing quarterbacks.
2. The mobile quarterback debate
Athletic, strong-armed quarterbacks are all the rage in the NFL. The charge is led by Patrick Mahomes, who infamously took down Shanahan’s 49ers in the Super Bowl two years ago, while there are a host of others. Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, Ryan Tannehill, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford and Justin Herbert can all throw on the run and make plays outside the structure of the offense.
In fact, the top five quarterbacks in passer rating from 2020 are as follows: Rodgers, Watson, Mahomes, Allen and Tannehill. In 2019: Tannehill, Brees, Jackson, Kirk Cousins and Wilson. That’s only two traditional pocket passers in those 10 spots.
Quarterbacks from the last two conference championships rounds: Mahomes and Rodgers (both twice), Allen, Watson, Tom Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo. That’s 75% under the “mobile quarterback” umbrella.
There’s a strong case favoring the trend of athletic quarterbacks, which is a strongest case for Lance or Fields and against Jones.
Big arms hold up better in cold weather games in the playoffs (which Brees has struggled with). Quarterbacks who can move have a better chance at overcoming poor play and injuries to their offensive line (Wilson and Watson have dealt with this for years). Making plays on the move can be the difference in getting converting a third-and-6 in a playoff game and having the season end in disappointing fashion, like Super Bowl LIV for San Francisco, when Garoppolo was unable to keep the chains moving in the fourth quarter.
Shanahan was asked about this dynamic and, again, sounded defensive when asked about mobile quarterbacks taking over the league in the context of his decision Thursday.
“I think the whole thing of the success of people like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, Deshaun, Lamar, those guys are unbelievable,” Shanahan said. “They can play the position and are obviously very, very talented and running around and doing stuff. But those are those guys.”
Shanahan noted that good pocket passers would be good no matter which era they played in.
“You’ve got to look into a lot of people. There’s lots of different ways you can do it,” he said. “I don’t look at it as in trends of the league. I look at it as there’s some special players or special people. I don’t care when Drew Brees comes out, whether it’s 30 years from now, 30 years ago, or today. Drew’s going to be pretty good. So was Philip Rivers.”
To Shanahan’s point, not all quarterbacks are created equal. He values the ability to play from the pocket above all else, and in many cases quarterbacks can overcome their athletic deficiencies by out thinking their opponents. Brady has excelled at that, but Brady is also one of the biggest anomalies of all time.
Taking Jones would be a deviation from what’s worked in recent seasons. There hasn’t been an influx of capable pocket passers in years. Brady, Cousins, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Brees and Rivers are aging out of the league while more athletic quarterbacks are taking over. Just about every successful quarterback under the age of 30 can make plays on the move as defenses continue to get more athletic..
NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said it the best in a conference call last week when asked about pairing a play-making quarterback with an elite play caller.
“I think you’re going to see it with Stafford in a great system with an elite quarterback. You’ve seen it with Mahomes with Andy Reid. When you pair those up — an elite play-caller and a good quarterback, you can win a Super Bowl. An elite player and an elite play caller, you can become a dynasty,” Jeremiah said.
There’s the rub. A less-athletic quarterback shrinks the margin for error. And even Brees, one of the most accomplished quarterbacks ever, won a single Super Bowl in 20 seasons. Shanahan and Lynch might not be afforded that much time.
3. The 49ers like all five quarterbacks
Shanahan did not spill his preferred target.
The tone of the news conference, and the reaction to the possible backlash of taking Jones, was a stark takeaway, as was his aversion to the mobile quarterback idea. Lance, or even Fields, could be the pick on Thursday, but it’s the signs point to Jones.
Shanahan and Lynch have said they made the trade last month knowing they were comfortable with three quarterbacks while leaving open the possibility one or two others would distinguish themselves.
“We knew that there was three at the time exactly,” Shanahan said Monday. “That’s why we thought three was a good spot to go to. After going through this whole process, I feel good about five guys at three. Yeah, we had a guy probably at first back then, but we knew that wasn’t set in stone and we knew the only way we could figure out a little bit more, especially when you can’t work out guys, you can’t meet with these people. There’s a lot of things you can’t do this year. The only way we could go off that was if we got closer to where we could do a little more in depth thing that we didn’t have to hide and we did.”
Controlling the process has been an emphasis throughout all of this. By moving to three, the 49ers were able to run second pro days for Lance and Fields, and have Shanahan’s confidant, John Beck, a third-party quarterback coach, work with Lance and Fields to gain deeper knowledge of each prospect.
Perhaps they wouldn’t have been able to do so freely if they didn’t move up to pick No. 3. Teams throughout the league would have sussed out their plans and jumped them for their quarterback.
But if they pick Jones, who didn’t require the extra work with Beck and was expected to be the choice from the jump, was it necessary to control the process with Lance and Fields by spending three first-round picks? Couldn’t they have discreetly honed in on Jones and waited until draft night to make a trade and given away far less?
Those are questions that won’t be answered until the draft plays out. But no matter what, Shanahan and Lynch’s jobs depend on getting it right by finding a quarterback that can help them win Super Bowls.
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This story was originally published April 27, 2021 at 7:23 AM.
