The 49ers mortgaged the future to take a shot at a Super Bowl. That usually doesn’t work
Did you ever hear the tragedy of First Round Picks the Thrice? It’s not a story the San Francisco 49ers would tell you.
Bold action was required, so the NFL team made the big trade. After all, the roster was fully loaded on both sides of the ball, but a little push was needed to get over the top.
And so it came to pass that the team dealt three first-round choices to get its man.
The terms were set: The 1989 Minnesota Vikings got Herschel Walker, then promptly got knocked out of the playoffs in the divisional round. Walker went on to take a shot at Olympic bobsledding, which wasn’t super helpful for the Vikings. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys turned those draft picks into Emmitt Smith, Russell Maryland and Darren Woodson — and a dynasty.
It was, without question, the dumbest trade in NFL history. It made Jar Jar Binks look like a good decision.
The NFL is built on hubris and the idea that just one more guy will make the difference on a 53-man roster. Players such as Tom Brady and Richard Sherman have famously used perceived slights to fuel their workouts and their in-game intensity. It makes sense, then, 49ers general manager John Lynch (a Hall of Fame strong safety) and coach Kyle Shanahan are willing to make a huge trade for the No. 3 pick in this year’s draft.
They dealt three No. 1 picks and a third-rounder for the Miami Dolphins’ third choice. That’s a lot of capital to move up nine slots.
The draft is no sure thing at any position, but even high picks wash out of the league quickly.
Last year’s third-overall choice, cornerback Jeff Okudah, played in six games. Recent No. 3 picks include Jets quarterback Sam Darnold and, of course, the 49ers’ Solomon Thomas, who’s currently unemployed.
Even No. 1 picks are no sure thing. Would anybody take Jameis Winston that high again? He was the consensus No. 1 overall choice in 2015. As a backup in New Orleans last season, Winston threw for 75 yards while Drew Brees struggled to dump the ball off to running backs on simple backfield patterns.
A draft choice is a lottery ticket. You win about 30% of the time if you’re really good at picking guys.
But Shanahan and Lynch have a big idea. They have All-Pro tight end in George Kittle. They have a stud linebacker in Dre Greenlaw. They have a defensive line with some of the best playmakers in the game. They have stellar young receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. You know what this team could use? Running back Herschel Wal … uh … a young stud quarterback.
Will it be North Dakota State’s Trey Lance or Alabama’s Mac Jones? You’d think the 49ers knew that before they mortgaged their future for a lottery ticket this year. But ESPN’s draft analyst Todd McShay over the weekend wrote he believes the 49ers organization is split between Jones and Lance.
Quote the Jar Jar: Dis is nutsen!
This is what Shanahan and Lynch wanted. With two future first-round picks shipped to the Dolphins, plus this year’s No. 12 choice, the 49ers have gone all-in on replacing Jimmy Garoppolo with a younger, possibly much better quarterback. The future is now for the 49ers. Shanahan and Lynch have made that the only option.
Was this trade a bad idea? Not for the Dolphins. Getting a fistful of draft picks is always a good idea. Just ask the Cowboys.