49ers mailbag: Who’s will be the No. 3 receiver? Is Julio Jones coming? Will Lance play?
A vast majority of the 49ers’ roster has shown up for the second phase of the offseason program this week with roughly 80 players on the 90-man roster participating in Santa Clara.
The media will not be allowed to watch practice until next week, so we can only guess what’s going on behind fences on the practice field. My guess? Some conditioning, playbook installation and general eagerness to avenge last year’s miserable 6-10 finish.
There was no breaking news Tuesday so let’s get to our latest mailbag!
Ray B asks: Who do you think will be wide receiver 3 if Jalen Hurd can’t go? Marqise Lee, Mohamed Sanu, Richie James Jr. or Austin Watkins?
I think James is the most likely option. He’s been around the longest of the group and will likely be the top punt return man, even though he’s not be the most dangerous or exciting choice (there’s a chance Brandon Aiyuk will get more of a chance in Year 2, though I’m not sure Kyle Shanahan is dying to have a starting receiver return punts unless it’s absolutely needed).
The Lee addition is interesting. He was in good form during his rookie minicamp tryout on Friday and must have played well enough over the weekend’s two practices to warrant landing a one-year contract. Lee in 2018 was good enough with the Jaguars to sign a four-year, $38 million deal before tearing his ACL a few months later in the preseason.
He wasn’t a burner when he entered the league in 2014 as second-round draft pick. His 4.52 in the 40-yard dash is in the 45th percentile, but he was explosive in other testing areas. His 4.01-second time in the 20-yard shuttle ranked in the 92nd percentile, while his vertical jump (38 inches) ranked in the 80th percentile and his broad jump (127 inches) ranked in the 86th.
The receiver spot, in my opinion, is perhaps the most unsettled on the entire roster. After starters Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, it will likely be 10 guys competing for the final four spots. I think newcomer Trent Sherfield has a chance to stick for his work on special teams and James should be a favorite for a spot given his experience. But neither are sure things and Sanu, Watkins, Jauan Jennings and Travis Benjamin all seem like high-variance players. They could either be useful pieces or not good enough to make the roster altogether.
It’s tough to forecast given all the unknowns.
Tim asks: I kind of have this feeling Shanahan and company really think Hurd can be that guy. I kind of feel it too. What do you think?
For questions like this I always look at the investment the team made in the player. Hurd was a third-round pick in 2019, which is pretty high for a guy that only had one season of experience at receiver after switching from running back. That, to me, indicates Shanahan had high hopes.
But it’s tough to have those same expectations two years later while Hurd is still waiting for his first regular season action. He didn’t play in his first two seasons because of a troublesome back injury in 2019 and an ACL tear during last season’s training camp.
In terms of skill set (I’ve written this before), but Hurd reminds me a lot of what the Steelers have with Chase Claypool. They’re both 6-foot-4, but Claypool is roughly 10 pounds heavier at a listed weight of 238 pounds. Both are big, physical receivers that can be tough matchups in the middle of the field. Hurd, when healthy, was also the team’s best blocking receiver, which could be a significant asset for the running game with three-receiver sets.
But, again, it’s impossible to know given Hurd hasn’t played anything close to real football since the 2019 preseason.
Dewitt asks: It sounds like Trey Lance basically spent 2020 getting private coaching. Wouldn’t this be the same thing he would spend time doing if he “red shirts” in 2021 (aside from learning the playbook)? In my opinion, start him Week 1 to have the most experience he can by playoff time.
I tend to agree. If the competition between Garoppolo and Lance is close throughout training camp, Lance should be given the nod. His development starts and ends with game reps, and the Lions and Eagles aren’t exactly a murderer’s row of defenses to begin the season. The Lions were dead last in points and yardage in 2020. The Eagles were 20th and 19th, respectively.
Starting Lance on the road might ease the pressure ahead of Week 3 against the Packers and what’s expected to be a full house at Levi’s Stadium in prime time.
That said, Garoppolo could be improved and is playing for his football future. A good, healthy season could lead to another contract and starting job elsewhere. We’ve seen how some players perform well in contract years, which is essentially where Garoppolo finds himself now that San Francisco drafted his replacement. I’m not ruling out Garoppolo having a career year in 2021 although I wouldn’t say I’m expecting it either.
I’ll reiterate what I’ve said a few times in this space. I think Lance is closer to being able to play than conventional wisdom. He’s polished and ran a pro-style system in college. And I’ve heard when he was basically coaching the North Dakota State offense to the 49ers during his predraft meetings. I think he’s got what he needs between the ears, it just comes down to getting on the field and playing against NFL defenses.
I think Shanahan could mask Lance’s deficiencies and cater to his strengths while the young QB cuts his teeth in the league.
Christian asks: What’s your opinion on the DB situation? Is that the defense’s weak spot?
Jimmie Ward, Jaquiski Tartt, Tarvarius Moore and rookie Talanoa Hufanga make up a pretty talented and versatile safety group. But the cornerback group can’t be looked at the same way.
Yes, Jason Verrett is talented, but we know about his injury history. And Emmanuel Moseley has proven to be a capable starter who would have to take a significant leap to solidify that role beyond this season. Is he maxed out or can he get appreciably better? K’Waun Williams is a good player in the slot, perhaps one of the best in the league, but he missed eight games last season due to injury.
Behind those three, third-round pick Ambry Thomas and fifth-rounder Deommodore Lenoir have potential. As does Tim Harris, a the 2019 sixth-round pick who appeared in two games last season and might have gotten drafted much higher if not for a spate of injuries at Virginia. But it’s far too early to project any of those three as capable starters until they prove it.
So depth at cornerback is certainly a concern. Perhaps the 49ers will be able to make things easier on their corners with a solid pass rush, anchored by the return of Nick Bosa, possibly Dee Ford, free agent Samson Ebukam, the development of Javon Kinlaw and a bounce-back season from Arik Armstead.
Brian asks: What kind of defensive coordinator (scheme, identity) do you think new DC DeMeco Ryan’s will be?
I’ve heard it will be similar to what the team ran under former coordinator Robert Saleh, but still waiting to hear from Ryans to be sure. He hasn’t spoken to reporters publicly since getting the promotion from linebackers coach.
This is a topic I’m looking to dive into further this offseason. Stay tuned.
SportyMiner asks: Injuries hit us like a ton of bricks last season. Where in the roster do you think we are most vulnerable to a couple injuries and which starters are you skeptical about their durability this season?
Bosa coming off a significant knee injury will bear monitoring. As will Ford’s status, if his back allows him to come back and play. Ebukam hasn’t missed a game in four seasons but it’s hard to project him as good enough to carry a pass rush. So defensive end is a key spot when it comes to health. The team will be built on getting after the quarterback as it was in 2019. Losing Kerry Hyder in free agency could be big if Bosa and Ford don’t play full seasons.
I’d say the same thing about receiver. Samuel needs to have a big year after his 2020 was washed out by injuries, particularly since the team didn’t add to the position in the draft or with a proven option in free agency. The 49ers are going to run the ball, perhaps at one of the highest rates in the league, but they’ll still need downfield options not named George Kittle to balance things out.
Speaking of Kittle, he’s in a similar boat as Bosa. He dealt with injuries last year, appearing in only eight games after tweaking his knee and fracturing a bone in his foot, and there’s not much depth behind him. The 49ers would be going from a top-three tight end to Ross Dwelley if Kittle went down. And KIttle is clearly the team’s most important option in the passing game.
David asks: Do you think Shanahan will plug in Lance for some designed package plays early in the season (by Week 1), even if Jimmy Garoppolo is the starter? And if not, assuming Lance is as quick a study as he’s been made out to be, what would be the reason not to?
I could definitely see Lance getting some packages, potentially on third down and in the red zone, where he could have a chance to make plays with his athleticism. It could be similar to the way the 49ers used Colin Kaepernick in 2011 and 2012 before he took over for Alex Smith.
Forcing defensive coordinators to plan for Garoppolo and Lance would give Shanahan a significant advantage in game planning, particularly since just about everything with Lance is unknown.
The reason not to use Lance in those situations if Garoppolo starts? Perhaps to save him from taking hits?
That’s one area of Lance’s game I wonder about while he adjusts from the FCS to the NFL. He steamrolled linebackers and defensive backs in college and would be wise to avoid those collisions as a pro. He finished his runs like a running back as opposed to ducking out of bounds and sliding like he’ll need to. I’m guessing that will be emphasized by the coaching staff throughout his first few years.
LBC9er asks: Any chances of trading for Julio Jones?
Sure, there’s a chance. We’ve seen the 49ers trade for accomplished veterans the past two years in Emmanuel Sanders and Trent Williams without completely mortgaging the future. Sanders (plus a fifth-round pick) cost a third and a fourth. Williams cost a third and a fifth.
I’m guessing the market would be stronger for Jones than either of those guys, but if I were John Lynch I’d call up Falcons GM Terry Fontenot and offer a 2022 second-round pick and 2023 fourth (and could be swayed to make a third based on incentives). A player like Jones, after all, could be the difference between contending in the NFC and being the favorite.
Jones has averaged 96 yards per game over his 10-year career, though he missed seven games last season due to an ankle injury. He’ll turn 33 next February, but likely has two more seasons of production in him, health permitting. However, it might take getting rid of Garoppolo’s contract to make Jones’ $15.3 million base salary work for 2021.
Kittle, Jones, Aiyuk and Samuel would be an awfully impressive group of targets for Lance to throw to — and give him a good chance at developing quickly.
