Ranking the 49ers’ five most important moves of the offseason: Focus on the offense
The 2021 offseason might go down as one of the most successful, or disappointing, in recent history given what’s at stake for coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch.
The 49ers are the rare team going through a transitional stage at quarterback that also has Super Bowl expectations. They hit a significant bump in the road in 2020, finishing 6-10 because many of the key contributors to their NFC Championship run a season prior were lost to injuries.
Health permitting, San Francisco could be among the NFC’s most-talented teams — but it will take their most important offseason moves working out. Let’s rank the team’s top five.
5. Adding Samson Ebukam to reinforce pass rush
Ebukam might be a surprising name to put on this list. He’s been a starting outside linebacker for the Rams for roughly half their games the last four seasons and he signed a modest two-year, $12 million contract with the 49ers this spring. But he could become one of San Francisco’s most important defenders in 2021, particularly as Dee Ford’s status remains unclear coming off the back injury that cost him 15 games in 2020.
The 49ers outside of Nick Bosa, who is coming off last September’s ACL tear, don’t have much depth at defensive end. They lost last season’s sack leader, Kerry Hyder, to the Seattle Seahawks in free agency. San Francisco’s current depth chart beyond their top three defensive ends includes Arden Key, Jordan Willis and Alex Barrett, who have 8.5 sacks in 86 combined games. That isn’t ideal for a team that built its identity around its pass rush when it went to the Super Bowl in 2019.
There’s some projection with Ebukam. He’s never had more than 4.5 sacks in a season and he’ll be transitioning from 3-4 outside linebacker to 4-3 defensive end (a similar transition Ford made in 2019 after being acquired from Kansas City). Ebukam would have earned a far more lucrative contract than $6 million per season if the league expected him to be a double-digit sack player.
But his physical skills make him intriguing. He’s an elite athlete, having ranked in the 88th percentile or above among outside linebackers in 10-yard split, 20-yard split, 40-yard dash, vertical jump and broad jump when he came into the league in 2017. The 49ers believe his new role, paired with his traits, could lead to big things given the supporting cast in place along the front seven.
We thought about putting the return of fullback Kyle Juszczyk in the No. 5 spot. The NFL’s top fullback re-signed to a five-year, $27 million deal on the eve of free agency. He’s arguably Shanahan’s most versatile offensive player and is key to one of the league’s best rushing attacks. But we gave the nod to Ebukam because of positional value. Getting a big season from Ebukam would help the 49ers more than another strong campaign from Juszczyk.
4. Prioritizing durability in NFL draft
The 49ers’ adjusted games lost in 2020, a metric tracked by Football Outsiders, was the second worst for any team since 2001. Bosa, Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Ford, Richard Sherman, Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert and others missed significant chunks of the season to injury starting in the season opener.
So Shanahan and Lynch decided it was time to change the way they evaluate players. They placed an emphasis in the NFL draft on toughness and durability. Quarterback Trey Lance never missed time at North Dakota State. Second-round pick Aaron Banks, the guard from Notre Dame, entered the lineup as a freshman and started 31 consecutive games to end his college career.
Running back Trey Sermon played 45 of 50 possible games at Oklahoma and Ohio State (though he did suffer a shoulder injury early in January’s national title game). Cornerback Ambry Thomas was one of Michigan’s best defensive players in 2019 after a month-long stay in the hospital before the season dealing with colitis, which caused him to drop some 35 pounds. Fifth-round offensive lineman Jaylon Moore started his last 32 games for Western Michigan. Defensive back Deommodore Lenoir played in 47 games in four seasons and started the last 34 at Oregon.
The 49ers have a draft class made up of mostly iron men, which is the right approach after injuries cost the team a chance at getting back to the Super Bowl last season.
3. Landing Alex Mack to solidify the center spot
The 49ers started three centers last season, and none played well enough to feel good about the position heading into 2021, especially with veteran Weston Richburg missing all of 2020 recovering from knee and shoulder injuries. It might lead to his eventual retirement this offseason.
Which makes the Alex Mack signing significant. The former Cal Bear was named to the Hall of Fame’s All-Decade team for the 2010s. He’s a six-time Pro Bowler and unquestionably one of the best centers of his era. It didn’t hurt that Mack knows Shanahan’s offense well having played under him as an offensive coordinator with the Cleveland Browns in 2014 and later with the Falcons in 2016 when Shanahan helped recruit him in free agency.
Mack is no longer an elite player. He’s 35, after all, and this will be his 13th season in the NFL. But he was still an asset to the Falcons last season, and he could prove vital in the development of Lance as learns the nuances of facing NFL defenses for the first time.
With the addition of Banks at right guard and bringing back Trent Williams, the 49ers have four first-round picks and one second-round pick likely to start along the offensive line. They could have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.
2. Bringing back Trent Williams (and preventing him from going to a rival)
The importance of re-signing Williams to his monstrous six-year, $138 million contract (it’s really a pair of three-year contracts, offering both sides flexibility in 2024) cannot be overstated. Losing him would have meant the team needed to find a left tackle elsewhere, perhaps in the NFL draft or trade, which might not have made the No. 1 move on this list possible (a real cliff hanger, I know).
“To keep the whole thing together was influenced by the success that we were able to have in free agency,” general manager John Lynch said March 29 of bringing Williams back.
Retaining Williams, arguably the best left tackle in the NFL, was the move that allowed the 49ers to maintain their aggressive outlook on 2021. The team might have decided to hit the reset button if Williams left, which could have led to parting with Jimmy Garoppolo earlier than expected and potentially trading other veterans for draft picks to get the rebuilding process under way.
Keeping Williams cemented the team’s all-in approach to 2021 and made their biggest move of the offseason palatable.
Oh, and Williams likely would have gone to the Kansas City Chiefs had he not returned to the 49ers. Losing the Super Bowl and a Hall of Fame left tackle to Kansas City in 13-month span would have been a tough pill to swallow.
1. Trading up for Trey Lance
Surprise!
OK, you probably knew where this move ranked as soon as you read the headline. No matter. Getting a new franchise quarterback will define any offseason for any team.
But it’s particularly notable for the 49ers. Trading three first-round picks, and a 2022 third-round compensatory pick, to the Miami Dolphins to take Lance at No. 3 was the biggest series of decisions Shanahan and Lynch will make. And it will ultimately define their tenures.
If it works and Lance brings them multiple championships, they’ll be viewed as legends in the same class as Bill Walsh and John McVay, the two pillars of San Francisco’s dynastic run in the 80s and 90s. If Lance flops, they will both hit the unemployment line soon after.
It appears Shanahan and Lynch have insulated Lance from the typical pitfalls many highly drafted quarterbacks deal with. He’s joining one of the NFL’s best rosters and will work for arguably the league’s best play caller. His supporting cast features a good offensive line with plenty of experience in the system and a running game that could ease his transition as he becomes a more nuanced passer.
This isn’t No. 3 pick Blake Bortles joining a miserable Jaguars team in 2014. Lance is joining a team that played in a Super Bowl 14 months before his arrival with many of the same players in place.
Simply put, the success of young quarterbacks is often defined by the strength of the team they join, which is why so many first-round quarterbacks flop. Lance, who some evaluators believed had the highest ceiling of the five first-round quarterbacks in the class, is entering the league in the best situation of the five first-round QBs taken.
It’s a big swing. But it’s one worth taking if the 49ers want to rekindle the dynasty that made them one of the most successful franchises in American sports in the ’80s and ’90s.
This story was originally published May 24, 2021 at 7:00 AM.
