The 49ers face big questions, so we turned to an expert for 2021 season predictions

The San Francisco 49ers have Super Bowl dreams for the 2021 season, which kicks off for the 49ers today against the Detroit Lions.

Lots of teams (or at least their fans) think they have a potential Super Bowl run coming this season. We wondered: What makes the 49ers any different from the pretenders? We turn to our beat writer, Chris Biderman, to weigh in with his thoughts on the big questions ahead of the 49ers. The questions are from James Patrick, the sports editor.

Question: The 49ers start the season on the road, which is normally a bad thing. They’re playing the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles. Does any Super Bowl contender have a friendlier start to the season?

Answer: First, let’s take a look at some 49ers history. They began their 1981 and 1984 seasons with road games in Detroit – and they won the Super Bowl in both those seasons. So why even play out the season this year? Engrave that sixth Lombardi Trophy now.

But to actually answer your question, no. San Francisco has arguably the easiest start to the season of any expected contender. I could go down the list, but there aren’t any starts quite like the Lions and Eagles, who went 9-22-1 combined in 2020 while finishing last in the NFC North and NFC East, respectively.

Which speaks to another important point about this 49ers season. They have a very friendly schedule. According to Warren Sharp of sharpfootballstats.com, the 49ers have the easiest slate of games in the entire NFL based on projected win totals from Las Vegas sports books.

It’s easy to see why. They play arguably the worst division in football in the AFC South, they get a last-place schedule after going 6-10 last season, and they get their 17th game against the Cincinnati Bengals, who went 4-11-1 in 2020. If healthy, I don’t think it’s over reactionary to say the 49ers should be favored in all their games against non-NFC West teams.

Question: Understatement of the year: A lot has been written about the 49ers offense. Granted, Trey Lance provides a lot of interesting wrinkles. But can you make an argument that the return of Raheem Mostert or improved offensive line play is more important to this team’s success than whatever Lance does?

Answer: In the immediate future, the answer is yes. Particularly with Lance dealing with a small chipped bone of his index finger in his throwing hand. The injury makes it less likely he’ll contribute in a significant way if coach Kyle Shanahan decides to go the quarterback-by-committee route early in the season.

Lance’s season will be about developing for the future. Shanahan has hinted as much, noting he has a difficult needle to thread in terms of fielding a contending team while also getting the No. 3 overall draft pick ready to supplant Jimmy Garoppolo either this season or the next.

But Mostert (and the entire running game, really) is the fulcrum of the offense. The 49ers in 2019 were the second-best running team in the NFL. That’s the brand that Shanahan wants to play, and it will help his defense stay fresh now that it no longer has DeForest Buckner or Richard Sherman. With Mostert back from his ankle and knee injuries that hampered him last season, Shanahan can utilize his speed that was irreplicable elsewhere on the roster.

Better yet for San Francisco, the running back room has been fortified by promising draft picks in Ohio State’s Trey Sermon and Louisiana’s Elijah Mitchell, who should provide noticeable upgrades over Jerrick McKinnon and Tevin Coleman.

Question: Since you mentioned the defense, let’s dig in a bit. The 49ers were fifth-best in yards allowed last year, though maybe it doesn’t feel like that’s true. Can they make a Super Bowl run if their defense is basically the same this year?

Answer: I think so.

The team has two potential All-Pros on that side: Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, who received that recognition for the first time last year. It’s hard to imagine the defense not being a strength if those two play 17 games (though Bosa is coming off an ACL tear from September).

If 2020 first-round pick Javon Kinlaw makes a big leap in Year 2, it could allow Arik Armstead to get back to 2019 levels playing next to Buckner when he led the team in sacks. Dee Ford is back, likely in a reduced role coming off his back injury that cost him 15 games in 2020. Newcomer Samson Ebukam is set to split time with Ford and provide more depth on the edge.

The real question about the defense, for me, is in the secondary. Can cornerback Jason Verrett stay healthy for a full slate of games? He dealt with plantar fasciitis in August that kept him from practicing, which is a little concerning, to say the least.

The other starter, Emmanuel Moseley, dealt with a hamstring injury that prevented him from getting consistent reps throughout training camp. The 49ers were concerned with the position to the point of signing 33-year-old Josh Norman over Labor Day weekend – who didn’t participate in a training camp in any capacity this summer.

They signed Norman likely because they weren’t enamored with their depth to start the season. Rookies Ambry Thomas and Deommodore Lenoir might not be ready for full-time roles if called upon, and the team had veteran backups Davontae Harris and Dontae Johnson go down with injuries.

Suffice to say, Verrett and Moseley are talented enough to keep the defense in that top-five range. But the real questions are about their availability and the depth behind them should they miss time. Especially in a division with D.K. Metcalf, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp and others at receiver.

Question: You mentioned him earlier. Is there any chance Richard Sherman takes a cheap deal and returns to the 49ers? Or is his Hall of Fame career likely over at this point?

Answer: I think the chances are slim.

I reported back in the spring the 49ers and Sherman had preliminary discussions about a possible return, but nothing came of it. Then Sherman had legal issues involving drunk driving and allegedly trying to break into his in-laws’ house.

To me, Sherman isn’t the type of player a team should bring in for a backup role. Maybe if Verrett or Moseley goes down for the season and you could earmark a starting job from the jump. Otherwise, that fifth cornerback might not even be active on game days, and it would be hard to insert a future Hall of Famer into that type of role.

That’s the reason why the team added Norman and not Sherman. Norman is likely fine being a backup for now. Sherman, given his equity with the team and throughout the league, would rather be a starter. Who could blame him?

Question: Let’s assume Lance remains what we’ve seen. He’s interesting but he’s young and makes rookie mistakes. And the 49ers have a light schedule. If this team is in playoff position with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm, can you make an argument they should let Lance take the lead at midseason?

Answer: I’ve argued since the 49ers drafted Lance they should start him Week 1 and ride the roller coaster that comes with playing a rookie quarterback. He needs experience more than he needs to hold a clipboard, and San Francisco has the play caller and supporting cast to prop him up.

This 49ers team is one of the best situations for a rookie quarterback in recent memory. Lance has better weapons than Robert Griffin III in 2012 or Dak Prescott in 2016. He’s more refined than Josh Allen was in 2018. Surely Shanahan could design a run-heavy, play-action-heavy offense that utilizes Lance’s athleticism and big arm while masking his deficiencies.

The most analogous situation for Lance might be the Pittsburgh Steelers when they inserted Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 and made it to the AFC Championship Game. They went 13-0 in his starts.

I believe Shanahan and new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel have a whole section of the playbook built specifically for Lance in mind. We’ve seen hints of it during training camp and the preseason, but I’d imagine it would be even more complex and have defensive coordinators spinning for solutions. There’s a lot of potential in that, and it would give Lance the reps he needs to develop sooner rather than later.

Keep in mind, the longer Lance sits, the longer it’s going to take for him to become the high-level starter Shanahan envisioned. NFL people often talk about the biggest leaps players make in their careers. For quarterbacks, it’s often between their first and second seasons. So if Lance sits in 2021, that leap, in theory, isn’t coming until 2023 rather than 2022.

Question: Alright. They have an easy schedule, an interesting offense and the defense is healthy. The betting line for wins is 10.5 this season. Are you taking the over or the under on that if your salary is on the line (editor’s note: it is not).

Answer: The 49ers, on paper, have one of the most-talented rosters in the NFC. They have a dynamic coach and offensive play caller in Shanahan and the ultimate wild card in Lance.

But, the fact is, the 49ers have made the playoffs once in Shanahan’s four seasons, which have all been marred by injuries. So odds are the 49ers would finish under 10.5 wins, if we’re basing probability on recent history.

But I’ll take the over. The injury luck has to regress (positively, in this case), the offensive line should be a strength (the right guard spot remains a concern, though), and the 49ers should have the most dynamic running game in the entire NFL when Lance plays. Full stop.

Think about what Lamar Jackson does in Baltimore but add better receivers and arguably the league’s best tight end and fullback in George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk. This might be a real nightmare for defenses that doesn’t have any film to prepare with.

It call comes down to Shanahan’s management of his quarterback situation. I think he can do it, based on his record with good quarterbacks, and looking at what he did with RG3 in 2012. If Bosa can stay healthy, and build on his 2019 season, look out. The 49ers might be a force in the NFC.