Why Sunday’s game will tell us a lot about 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan (and Trey Lance)
Coach Kyle Shanahan is a somewhat-polarizing figure because of the 49ers’ uneven 2-2 start to the regular season. Which makes Sunday’s game against the undefeated Arizona Cardinals a big one for how he’s viewed now that his quarterback situation is in flux. Jimmy Garoppolo is hurt, dealing with a calf injury, and Trey Lance will make his first career start.
Many in the NFL identify Shanahan as one of the best offensive minds in the game. That’s evident by how many former assistants he’s had land prominent jobs around the league, including Rams coach Sean McVay and Matt LaFleur of the Packers. That, of course, is on top of the success he’s had designing offenses at every stop throughout his career.
But Shanahan’s group of detractors is also growing. The arguments include his record as 49ers head coach — 31-37 entering the weekend with one postseason berth in four seasons — and some questionable personnel decisions he’s made since being in charge of San Francisco, particularly at quarterback.
Namely, Shanahan passed on drafting Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson in 2017 because he had his eyes on signing Kirk Cousins in free agency the following offseason. Then he went all-in on Jimmy Garoppolo, signing him to a five-year, $137.5 million contract on the back of seven NFL starts, including five with the 49ers after being acquired for a second-round pick from the Patriots.
The 49ers are in the fourth season of that pact and Shanahan has spent time this offseason looking for Garoppolo’s replacement because of injuries and up-and-down play. Shanahan wouldn’t have kicked the tires on Tom Brady after going to the Super Bowl two seasons ago, Matthew Stafford this winter and Watson before trading up in the draft if Garoppolo’s tenure was a resounding success.
Placing a big bet on Lance
Now Shanahan has Garoppolo’s replacement in Lance, who will determine the success or failure of Shanahan as San Francisco’s leading man.
However you feel about Shanahan — whether he’s an offensive genius or overrated — will be tested Sunday. How Lance does will give the football world a good idea of exactly where things are headed for the 49ers in the short and long term.
Is Lance the right guy? Can Shanahan develop a game plan to compete with the league’s only undefeated team? Is Lance even ready?
These are questions worth asking.
If Lance plays well Sunday and the 49ers upset the division leaders, there’s a chance he unseats Garoppolo for good. Then questions would arise like, why not play Lance sooner while the offense struggled for spurts in games against the Eagles, Packers and Seahawks?
If Lance plays poorly, that would also lead to questions.
If the 49ers needed to insulate themselves from another Garoppolo injury, why draft Lance to a contending roster after playing just one full season at North Dakota State of the FCS, and not another prospect who might have been more ready to step in Year 1? (Yes, this is a Mac Jones or Justin Fields question).
Shanahan reiterated last week ahead of the Seahawks game that he didn’t believe Lance was ready to assume a full-time role within the offense, which led to getting seven snaps over the first three games. Shanahan took issue with the idea that Lance could springboard the offense after it struggled to run the ball consistently in Philadelphia and again at home versus Green Bay.
“Trey’s our backup quarterback,” Shanahan said. “This isn’t the preseason. We’re not just going back and forth all the time.”
Trey Lance’s real debut
Lance saw his first extended action in the second half of last week’s game against the Seahawks after getting just seven snaps over the previous four weeks combined. He started out jumpy and out of sorts, throwing his first attempt to George Kittle in the dirt and airmailing Deebo Samuel on a slant.
Lance completed 9 of 18 for 157 yards and two touchdowns to Samuel, one coming on a gifted blown coverage by Seattle’s defense. He missed open receivers, at times took too long to get the ball out of his hands, and looked frenetic, adding credence to Shanahan’s thought that Lance wasn’t ready (isn’t it the coach’s job to make the sure quarterback is ready?).
But he did lead a touchdown drive late in the game that was capped by Samuel’s second score. He converted a pair of fourth downs on the possession, including one with his legs and one with a pass to Mohamed Sanu. He looked far more comfortable than he did early in his showing after being told minutes before the second half began that he would have to finish the game because of Garoppolo’s injury.
“I thought he got more comfortable as the game went,” Shanahan said. “Especially going home and watching the tape after the game, I thought there was a lot of encouraging stuff. So, guys that are rookies, second-year players, it doesn’t matter the position, you’re always developing. You’re always trying to get better and he’ll see some things out there that he’s never seen before, but what you like about him and stuff that he might not be ready for he can overcompensate with some of his athletic ability and, to me, how competitive he is and how good of a football player he is.”
Sunday’s game won’t define Lance’s playing career. But it will speak to Shanahan’s process since drafting him, letting him sit behind Garoppolo — costing him valuable reps in practice and in games — and Shanahan’s ability to create a game plan suited to Lance’s strengths.
If Lance looks over skis, leaving the 49ers to go back to Garoppolo after the bye week, it will raise a lot of questions about Shanahan given all the quarterbacks he passed on to get to this point. If it goes well, then Shanahan will have a chance to regain his cachet after a rough start to the season.
