The Rams traded for Von Miller. Here’s how that move reflects the 49ers’ strategy, too
While the 49ers breathed a sigh of relief after their win Sunday over the Chicago Bears, the team was given some unwelcome news Monday. The L.A. Rams traded with the Broncos to get former Super Bowl MVP pass rusher Von Miller; they visit Levi’s Stadium in two weeks.
Once again, the Rams pulled off a deal that contradicts what used to be normal roster construction in the NFL. They gave up second- and third-round draft picks next spring for Miller, who is unsigned beyond this season.
The most conservative NFL decision-makers will say that’s a lot of risk for a 32-year-old pass rusher still dealing with an ankle injury (though Miller is reportedly expected to make his Rams debut Sunday against the Titans). Draft picks used to be worth their weight in gold, though L.A.’s aggressive front office, led by general manager Les Snead, has used picks as currency to add talent to create one of the most top-heavy rosters in the league through a series of trades.
It started in 2016, when the Rams traded a package headlined by two first-round picks to move up to take Jared Goff with the top overall selection. The following year, they swapped a first-round pick for Patriots receiver Brandon Cooks, then dealt two firsts (2020 and 2021) to the Jaguars for star cornerback Jalen Ramsey, and then sent Goff with first-round choices in 2022 and 2023 to Detroit for their new star quarterback, Matthew Stafford, last winter.
Which means the Rams are set to go seven years between making picks in the first round. Many of the NFL’s top decision-makers would squirm at that prospect.
The 49ers’ top decision-maker, head coach Kyle Shanahan, isn’t one of them.
49ers influenced by Rams’ trades
Clearly Shanahan has felt the influence of the way the Rams and head coach Sean McVay, a former Shanahan assistant, do business. He mentioned them and the Seattle Seahawks, who traded two first-round picks for safety Jamal Adams in July 2020, when he discussed the investment of three first-round picks in new quarterback before the NFL draft last spring, when he took Trey Lance.
To that point, it was the most the 49ers have given up in a trade in franchise history.
“That’s a little dramatic to me,” Shanahan said in April when discussing the context of moving up from No. 12 to 3.
He continued: “I’ve watched two teams the last couple of years make awesome moves and trade two ones for a starting Pro Bowl strong safety. I’ve seen a team trade two ones for a starting Pro Bowl corner. I think those decisions were awesome for their teams and I hate playing against them because of it.
“We decided we needed a starting quarterback, so we traded two ones to get a starting quarterback. Hopefully, we end up picking the best one, but I know we’re going to get a starting quarterback with that. And that’s a smart move to me, not necessarily a smart move, but it’s the move that you have to do.”
That hasn’t always been a move “you have to do.” For years, until the Rams string of deals starting in 2017, teams were hesitant to part with early draft picks because the draft is a way to add premium talent at marginal costs, particularly since the collective bargaining agreement in 2011 slotted rookie salaries based on where they were picked.
Which is another reason why the 49ers were intent on trading up for a quarterback. They’ll have Lance on a controllable rookie contract until through 2025, assuming they pick up his fifth-year option. Lance is set to make $34 million in total through 2024, while 10 quarterbacks make $30 million on average per season. Jimmy Garoppolo’s five-year contract he signed in 2018 averages $27.5 million per year.
What the Rams and Shanahan are realizing is that uncertainty in the draft can be costly for teams that hoard their draft picks — while trading draft picks for established stars adds an element of certainty. It’s also a way to expedite the process because these stars are ready-made and won’t need a year or two to develop.
“I agree that used to be the biggest deal, but over these last five years, you see so many teams do it,” Shanahan said in a conference call Monday. “I think a lot of teams it really helps, and sometimes it doesn’t. It’s all a risk in this league whether you’re trading future picks for stuff you think can help now. But it’s also a huge risk on every person you draft. You never really know until people get in the situation.”
Picks don’t always pay
Shanahan has been on both sides of it. He invested first-round picks in 2021 and the next two drafts for Lance. But he also went the other way in 2020 by trading veteran defensive tackle DeForest Buckner for a first-round pick last spring. The team used that pick on Buckner’s replacement, Javon Kinlaw, but it hasn’t worked out just yet. Kinlaw had season-ending knee surgery last week and has 1.5 sacks 18 games into his nondescript career. Buckner was an All Pro for the Colts last season.
To put the Miller trade in a 49ers’ context: San Francisco drafted Notre Dame guard Aaron Banks and Ohio State running back Trey Sermon in the second and third rounds. Banks hasn’t played an offensive snap and Sermon had one carry since Oct. 10. Sometimes draft picks don’t pay off. On the other hand, Deebo Samuel and Fred Warner were drafted in the second- and third-rounds of 2019 and 2018, respectively.
The Rams are intent on pushing all their chips to the middle of the table with a Super Bowl in mind. The sustainability of their philosophy matters less if they can hoist a Lombardi Trophy this season or the next.
But without a first-round pick until 2024, the 49ers made their move in acquiring Lance and don’t have the capital to continue a spree like the Rams. But they have a roster with top-end talent already, with Trent Williams, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel in tow.
What they will have after this season is more cap space because of the Lance trade. Early projections indicate they will be in the neighborhood of $40 million in room should they cut or trade Garoppolo and get the final year of his contract of the books. So unlike the Rams, who acquired highly paid talent in their trades for draft picks, the 49ers got their quarterback and financial flexibility they will need to lure free agents or sign Samuel and/or Bosa to long-term contracts.
“I don’t think there’s a right or wrong answer going into anything,” Shanahan said Monday. “I do think it adds a lot more competition to this league. The more one person’s risky, the more it makes a lot of people be risky because you got to compete and you got to keep up with those things. But they all work out differently.”
This story was originally published November 2, 2021 at 7:25 AM.
