Trey Lance showed enough. Here’s why the 49ers should let him start a pivotal Rams game
What’s the takeaway from Trey Lance’s second career start with the 49ers?
It was a mixed bag for the rookie, but that’s to be expected from a player that’s spent the entire season — save for two weeks ahead of his starts — operating as the scout team quarterback during the week while Jimmy Garoppolo practiced with the starters.
There was good from Lance on Sunday during the 23-7 victory over the 4-12 Houston Texans: a field goal drive at the end of the second quarter in which he drove 56 yards over 38 seconds before halftime, a dime over the middle to George Kittle in the fourth quarter and a deep touchdown pass to Deebo Samuel on a familiar play-action roll out that was similar to a preseason touchdown he threw to Trent Sherfield..
Lance on Sunday added 31 rushing yards on eight carries, though he didn’t rely on his mobility as a crutch like he did frequently during his first start against the Arizona Cardinals during Week 5. The idea the 49ers pushed during the week that he’s improved as a passer held up. He averaged 10.8 yards per attempt Sunday after 6.6 in his starting debut Oct. 10 in Arizona.
“I feel like I’m father along and I’m continuing to get better with every practice, every rep I take,” Lance said.
There was also some bad: a second-quarter interception coming before the Texans’ only touchdown of the game, the first five possessions resulting in zero points, a fourth-down incompletion to Brandon Aiyuk in scoring territory on a pass that was thrown to Samuel, and the general uneasiness of a first-year player making his first start in front of home fans.
Lance wasn’t always decisive, and the plays that required him to get rid of the ball quickly went more smoothly than others that required time to read the field. Even his first touchdown pass to a wide-open Elijah Mitchell in the third quarter was thrown like a wobbly shot put.
But overall, the stat line paints a rosy picture. Lance completed 16 of 23 (70%) for 249 yards with two touchdowns, an interception and 116.0 passer rating. He was sacked just once.
What does Lance’s performance mean?
He also pushed the ball down field in a way the 49ers haven’t seen from their quarterbacks in years. According to Next Gen Stats, Lance averaged the most air yards per attempt, 11.5, and had the most yards on 10-plus air yards passes, 205, by any 49ers signal-caller over the last three seasons.
Jimmy Garoppolo — who came into the weekend 30th in the NFL averaging 7.4 air yards per attempt — is a far different kind of quarterback.
“I think he did some real good things,” 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said about Lance’s performance. “Besides that bad interception, I thought he protected the ball really well. That was a big thing going into this game and he did a good job on all those except for one play. I think he was very efficient, just looking at his numbers and things like that.”
The interception came on a pass which he stared down Kittle. The Texans were in a cover 2 defense, Lance said, and Desmond King undercut the route. Samuel was wide open on the other side of the field for a possible long touchdown, but Lance never looked his way.
“We had to check it down to the back or throw it away,” Shanahan said of the interception. “He tried to force it in there to Kittle, which might have had a chance if it was a perfect ball. But it wasn’t and just one he wanted to pull back.”
Which all raises the next question in the Shanahan’s odyssey through this roller-coaster season. What happens at quarterback next week in a possible do-or-die game against the familiar Los Angeles Rams?
How is Jimmy Garoppolo’s health?
Garoppolo in the Dec. 23 loss to the Titans tore the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his right thumb on his throwing hand. The injury prevented him from throwing a ball before Sunday’s game. It’s an injury that often requires surgery and rehab process that could last four to six weeks, though Shanahan said recently he didn’t believe Garoppolo would need a procedure before being able to play again this season.
Still, Shanahan said after Sunday’s game he expects Garoppolo to throw this week after not throwing at all since the injury. And nothing Lance did Sunday would unseat Garoppolo as the starter, all things being equal.
“If Jimmy is 100 percent healthy and can do everything perfect, then we’ll definitely go with Jimmy. We’re not just going to throw a guy in after one game like this when Jimmy has been doing it for us all year,” Shanahan said.
But.
“I think it’s going to be hard for Jimmy to be 100% (healthy), which I think is how most people are at this time of year but Trey did a good job,” said Shanahan. “If Jimmy can’t go, we won’t hesitate at all, but if we feel Jimmy can go and play confident then Jimmy will be out there.”
I asked Shanahan if he needs Garoppolo to be 100% — fully healthy — to play in next week’s game, which could determine if the 49ers make the playoffs.
“No. No one on our roster needs to be 100%,” he said.
Garoppolo’s injury is proof positive of the need for Lance in the first place. And it’s clear, in a harrowing spot where the 49ers needed Lance to win (albeit against a miserable Texans team with the league’s 30th-ranked defense), the No. 3 overall pick can raise the ceiling of Shanahan’s offense given his willingness to push the ball down field and make plays with his legs.
But Lance is still a rookie who would be making his third career start, on the road, with the season on the line possibly, against a defense featuring Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey.
49ers vs. Rams
The 49ers defense, which held the Texans to just 222 yards and a miserable 3.6 yards per play, came into the week with one mandate while it normally has three it emphasizes during the week of practice.
“It was that we had to have our most dominant performance of the year,” linebacker Fred Warner said. “Obviously we knew that Trey was going to be the starter, but we need to do that for the team.”
So who should Shanahan pick to start under center Week 18 with the season potentially on the line?
My vote is Lance, simply because it’s hard to envision Garoppolo being healthy enough to avoid back-breaking mistakes like he had in Tennessee.
Garoppolo has come back early from injuries before, notably in Oct. 2020, only to be benched again after throwing two interceptions during a miserable 43-17 loss to the Dolphins. Garoppolo couldn’t push off his foot, but that was when the 49ers had Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard as backups — not an uber-talented signal-caller who was taken near the top of the draft.
After two starts for Lance, it’s clear Garoppolo is the more trustworthy player. He’s the veteran who’s played in the playoffs and a Super Bowl, and he was having a good (not great) season before arguably his worst showing of the year in Tennessee, which will get circled if the 49ers miss the postseason.
But that’s if Garoppolo is fully healthy, which is a stretch given the type of injury he’s dealing with. One inaccurate pass over the middle, where Garoppolo makes most of his passes, could end up being the difference between making the playoffs and not getting that chance. To be sure, it was Garoppolo’s interceptions that cost the 49ers the Titans game more than anything else.
Going with Lance in L.A. would be a gamble, but a more justifiable one than playing Garoppolo if he can’t properly grip a football. Lance offers an element of unknown, given the lack of film and NFL experience.
The book is out on Garoppolo, while the offense could be multidimensional with Lance, who has a bigger arm and is more athletic. And it could be that Lance benefits from getting back-to-back weeks with game reps and work with the starters during practice. He could be better than he was Sunday, in a game where George Kittle had only one catch and Samuel was largely missing until his fourth-quarter touchdown.
It’s not an easy call, but Shanahan should bet on his rookie. In a way he already did by investing three first-round picks to get him. If and when the 49ers make the playoffs, then they could revisit the decision — if Garoppolo is healthy.
This story was originally published January 3, 2022 at 6:59 AM.
