Inside 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan’s biggest decision yet: Start Lance or Garoppolo?
This season isn’t going to define Kyle Shanahan’s tenure as 49ers head coach, but it’s going to be a valuable bullet point in how we evaluate his handling of difficult situations.
And Sunday’s 49ers regular season finale against the Rams is going to be the culmination of a quarterback predicament he created this season when he decided to trade three first-round picks to draft Trey Lance while keeping Jimmy Garoppolo as the starter.
Everything will be on the line for San Francisco at SoFi Stadium given the 49ers (9-7) — who have lost a handful of games they should have won — will need a victory to clinch a playoff spot. They can’t bank on the Falcons to beat the Saints, which, aside from a tie against the Rams, is the only realistic way the 49ers could get into the tournament without a victory in L.A. The Falcons are 4.5-point underdogs at home.
So it’s win or go home for the 49ers. That’s the mindset. Simple as that.
“If we don’t come to play,” linebacker Fred Warner said, “they’re going to embarrass us. ... That’s just what it is.”
Which amplifies the pressure on Shanahan to make the right call at quarterback. Play Garoppolo while he’s bothered by a torn ligament in his thumb that will likely require offseason surgery? Or go with Lance, who very much looked like an inexperienced rookie throughout his first NFL season, while also proving he has the tools to raise the ceiling of the offense beyond Garoppolo?
There’s no easy answer — and neither is a sure bet for the biggest game of the season.
49ers have owned the Rams
Yes, the 49ers have won five straight against the Rams, but that streak feels more like an oddity than true superiority. The Rams are 12-4 overall, 8-3 against NFC teams and 3-2 in the division. The 49ers are 6-5 in the NFC and 1-4 in the division with their only NFC West victory coming against L.A. in their previous meeting in November.
“I think it’s two teams that respect each other a lot,” Shanahan said Wednesday. “We go hard. I would guess we’ve won the turnover battle the majority of the times, but each one is kind of its own game. And so I never really tied those together when we went into it and especially being this one right now, it really has no bearing on what’s happened in the past. It’s all about these four quarters.”
To this point, that first matchup feels like the most important of 2021 for San Francisco, which was 3-5 but turned things around to save the season. The 49ers are 5-2 in their last seven games while the Rams have won five straight. So the two biggest games of the season for Shanahan will be against the Rams and head coach Sean McVay, his former assistant while the two were staffers with Washington.
The case for (and against) Jimmy G
There’s a strong case to be made for either quarterback. First, Shanahan’s incumbent.
Garoppolo is experienced. He knows the offense. He operates efficiently when at his best and surely the playbook is more expansive with him under center. He gets rid of the ball quickly because of the chemistry he’s developed with his pass-catchers. He’s played in a number of big games.
But Garoppolo doesn’t push the ball downfield. And when he does, it doesn’t always lead to good results (like missing fullback Kyle Juszczyk for a would-be touchdown in his last start against Tennessee). Garoppolo ranks 30th in averaged intended air yards (7.4), according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Lance averaged 11.5 against the Texans on Sunday, and recorded the most passing yards (205) on throws 10 yards or longer by any 49ers quarterback over the last three seasons.
The offense has the potential to be more explosive with the rookie and those big plays could mask of his deficiencies, while Garoppolo often has to lead prodding 15-play drives. Those increase the level of difficulty to score points and decrease the margin of error by giving Garoppolo more opportunities to throw interceptions.
Garoppolo has a propensity of turning the ball over. His two picks in Tennessee in his last start were the most important factors in San Francisco losing (a win there and the 49ers would have likely already clinched a playoff spot).
His thumb injury, which came in the second quarter of that game, is still painful. Garoppolo didn’t resume throwing until Tuesday before practicing Wednesday. He didn’t throw or practice last week ahead of the Texans game.
“F---, it hurts,” Garoppolo said before Wednesday’s practice. “I don’t know how else to describe it. It feels like the web in your hand is kind of tearing a little bit.”
To be sure, listening to Garoppolo describe the injury and the fact it “didn’t feel so hot” Wednesday morning, he said, after testing it for the first time Tuesday, it seemed fair to conclude Garoppolo wasn’t confident in his ability to play against the Rams.
But at practice later in the afternoon, Garoppolo seemed like his normal self, save for the black tape bracing his thumb, him occasionally looking at his throwing hand and flexing it. His throws were coming out with velocity and tight spirals. But it remains to be seen how the thumb responded throughout the week of practice — and if it will be worse for wear come Sunday.
The case for (and against) Trey Lance
So why start Lance? We made the case after the Houston game.
If Garoppolo isn’t close to 100%, it’s fair to say Lance would give the 49ers a better chance to win. The way he played in the second half against Houston offered plenty of promise, though he still had moments where he looked like a rookie, particularly in the first half. His drive that led to a field goal late in the second quarter appeared to get him in rhythm, but it also ended with Lance nearly throwing an interception on a pass that miraculously landed in Brandon Aiyuk’s hands near the sideline.
Lance wasn’t decisive as a runner, and it took a few possessions for the offense to find a rhythm in his first start in over two months.
But once it did, Lance started to play with confidence, highlighted by his first throw of the second half to Aiyuk in a small window over the middle he took for a 43-yard gain. There was the 29-yard rocket he sent to George Kittle, who made a highlight reel one-handed catch. The 45-yard touchdown pass to Deebo Samuel was not a throw Garoppolo could make without the defense making his throwing window smaller. Lance has a much stronger arm and is more accurate on deeper throws.
Lance finished completing 16 of 23 for 249 yards, a staggering 10.8 yards per attempt, with two touchdowns and one interception, good for a 116.0 passer rating, which was higher than 10 of Garoppolo’s 14 starts.
The caveat, of course, is it came against the lowly Texans, who have one of the worst defenses in the league, and the 49ers never felt like they were in control of the game until the fourth quarter, when they scored 13 unanswered points.
Risk vs. reward
Which all makes for the toughest call of Shanahan’s career, with the highest stakes of any decision he’s made since the Super Bowl season in 2019.
Risk it all with Garoppolo, the quarterback he’s already replaced, or give Lance an early taste of what’s to come when he’s given the starting job as early as this offseason?
Deciding on a quarterback for the playoffs will be another decision altogether. But given there isn’t a standout juggernaut in the NFC, the 49ers feel like they can make some noise despite their record being short of their expectations coming into the season. They just need to win Sunday.
‘”The goal to me is always just to get in,” Shanahan said. “Because if you get in, you got the shot. And I’ve always felt like that and it seems pretty strong this year too.”
