The Rams did just enough to win the Super Bowl. Here’s what the 49ers should have learned
Think back to the last three Super Bowls and the indelible images of winning quarterbacks in those game.
In Super Bowl LIV, it was Patrick Mahomes’ stunning, back-peddling 44-yard completion to Tyreek Hill on a third-and-15 that changed the momentum and helped the Kansas City Chiefs overcome a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter to beat the 49ers.
A year later, Tom Brady won his seventh career Lombardi Trophy, giving him more than any single franchise in NFL history. His game MVP award was his fifth, the same number of championships San Francisco — one of the league’s legacy franchises — has won as an organization.
From Sunday’s Super Bowl, the image that will live in Los Angeles Rams lore will be Matthew Stafford throwing a no-look pass to Cooper Kupp en route to the game-winning touchdown late in the fourth quarter. That completion helped give L.A. a Super Bowl win over the Bengals two weeks after the Rams beat the 49ers in comeback fashion in the NFC title game. Stafford helped the Rams win a championship four years after L.A. managed just three points with Jared Goff in a Super Bowl loss to the Patriots.
Quarterbacks rule on football’s biggest stages more often than not. If the 49ers want to climb the mountain and lift their sixth Lombardi, they’ll need more than what they’ve gotten from Jimmy Garoppolo in the biggest moments of the season, like the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl and last month in SoFi Stadium.
Forget Brady. The future is Lance
Yes, the 49ers will likely trade Garoppolo in the coming weeks, bringing back draft capital after investing three first-round picks in Trey Lance last spring. Lance is the clear favorite to be under center when the 49ers kick off the regular season in September — though perhaps it can’t be ruled out that Tom Brady or his camp, again, would call Kyle Shanahan and/or John Lynch like he did in 2020 to let them know he’d be willing to play for his childhood team.
This isn’t a Brady column. It’s just worth pointing out that Brady’s “retirement” message he posted on Instagram didn’t include the word “retire.” Nor did it sound as concrete as the world seems to be assuming. And it should surprise no one if some time this offseason reports surface about Brady kicking around the idea of returning.
Back to the more likely scenario: the 49ers going with Lance, who turns 22 on May 9, under center. The recent history outlined above indicates Shanahan and Co. will need Lance to get fitted for a super hero cape to elevate the franchise in the context of Super-Bowl-or-bust expectations if 2022 will be a success.
“I’ve got the ultimate respect for Jimmy, and I’m very excited about Trey,” Shanahan said last month. “And that’s where we’re at right now. Jimmy’s made it a lot harder, because he stayed healthy and he played like he is capable of playing, which is to me one of the better quarterbacks in this league. So we’re in a tough situation, not a tough situation, a situation where you have to make some tough decisions that won’t be easy, but I’m happy about that. That means you’ve got the best scenario going.”
Shanahan, of course, skirted around the idea Garoppolo would likely be dealt. While Garoppolo, minutes later, spelled out that his time was done with San Francisco. It all indicated this 49ers offseason will be about developing Lance and getting him to lift the ceiling of Shanahan’s offense.
Trey Lance time
So what does that look like, exactly?
It would probably include earning more trust from Shanahan to make a play on fourth-and-short, something Shanahan didn’t have with Garoppolo with 10 minutes to go in the fourth quarter of the NFC Championship game, or really at all with Garoppolo beyond a quarterback sneak.
Lance, who ran for 1,325 yards and 18 touchdowns in 19 college games, should help Shanahan become more aggressive in those situations, rather than ramming Elijah Mitchell into the line of scrimmage before deciding to punt. There was some evidence of that in Lance’s first start last October in Arizona, when Shanahan went for it on fourth down five times (which Lance helped convert just once).
Shanahan dialed up a run play to Lance during the Week 3 matchup against the Packers when he faced a fourth-and-goal as the second quarter expired. Lance got two good blocks from Trent Williams and Alex Mack to give the 49ers a needed touchdown after falling behind 17-0 in the first half.
There’s also a downfield element to Lance’s game the offense didn’t have with Garoppolo. Anecdotally, Garoppolo would miss open receivers downfield. Examples include fullback Kyle Juszczyk for a walk-in touchdown during the Week 16 loss to Tennessee or George Kittle early in the NFC title game for a big gain and possible score.
Lance only played roughly 10 quarters of football, but hit Deebo Samuel for touchdowns of 76 and 45 yards, while he also averaged 8.5 yards per attempt despite completing less than 58% of his throws. Garoppolo completed over 68% of his throws and averaged 8.6 yards per attempt during the regular season, though that number dipped to 7.2 in the playoffs. According to Pro Football Focus, 18.3% of Lance’s pass attempts were on throws longer than 20 yards. Garoppolo’s rate was 7.6%.
Lance’s intangibles
Intangibly, the 49ers made their big bet on Lance because they believed in his character. He was given the “Gold Helmet” designation in the draft room, which goes to roughly 15-20 prospects in each class that exemplify the football character and physical traits the team covets.
“I think what I learned most about Trey is I learned that he was the person that we were banking on him being,” Shanahan said. “He’s the good person, the good human that we thought, he has the work ethic we thought, he’s as smart as we thought, he’s got a natural charisma to him that I believe as a leader. He’s kind of the baby on the team this year, just in terms of his age, but he has a presence to him that people will gravitate to when he has that position.”
By all accounts, Lance has the talent and intangibles to become a winning NFL quarterback. But whether or not he can elevate franchises the same way Mahomes, Brady and Stafford have to win the last three Super Bowls is a different ask altogether. But that’s what it’s going to take.
