Making sense of the 49ers’ offseason: There’s a good reason they haven’t dumped Garoppolo
What’s been the best move the 49ers have made in free agency since Kyle Shanahan became head coach in 2017?
That was the first exercise I went through when evaluating San Francisco’s offseason, knowing the team’s level of aggression in free agency has been a talking point surrounding the handling of polarizing quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. There’s a reasonable argument to be made for the 49ers releasing Garoppolo and using the cap space to be aggressive in free agency.
In looking through the team’s recent history with big-ticket free agents, it’s clear future Hall of Fame cornerback Richard Sherman was the best free agent addition the 49ers made when he was signed in 2018. Next up is likely fullback Kyle Juszczyk, followed by kicker Robbie Gould.
Otherwise? Not great.
The list of big-money deals, including linebacker Malcolm Smith, center Weston Richburg, running back Jerrick McKinnon and linebacker Kwon Alexander, were decisions the team likely regrets. (Pass rusher Dee Ford would be thrown into this mix if he weren’t acquired in a tag-and-trade from the Chiefs in 2019 before signing a five-year, $85.5 million deal that’s arguably been the team’s most burdensome contract of the last four seasons. GM John Lynch said at the owners’ meetings this week Ford is likely done in San Francisco.)
So, yes, the 49ers could have cut Garoppolo to spend more in free agency, but the team’s track record isn’t great in that department. Coach Kyle Shanahan and the front office have made it clear they view most free agent contracts as overspends, which has borne out.
Cornerback Charvarius Ward did fill the team’s most glaring need. The 49ers signed the former Kansas City Chief to a three-year, $40.5 million contract, which is less than the $41.2 million deal departing guard Laken Tomlinson signed with the New York Jets. Cornerback, of course, is a far more valuable position than guard.
Investing on the margins
The team then decided to invest in players on the margins. Specifically ones that help on special team. Receiver and return man Ray-Ray McCloud is expected to fill the longstanding void in the return game. Safety George Odum is a former All-Pro as a gunner. Linebacker Oren Burks is considered a special teams standout and should provide an upgrade over free agent Marcell Harris. Those three players combined to average $7.66 million per season.
Let’s list the 49ers best players, in no particular order: defensive end Nick Bosa, left tackle Trent Williams, receiver Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle, linebacker Fred Warner and defensive lineman Arik Armstead.
Five of those six players were 49ers draft picks. The only player who wasn’t is Williams, who was acquired via trade in 2020. But he was drafted fourth overall in 2010 by Washington, which employed Shanahan as offensive coordinator under his father, Mike, who was head coach.
The point? The 49ers’ best players are ones they draft — not spend on in free agency — which explains their reasoning for not being as aggressive as, say, the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Back to Garoppolo, who has been the talk of the offseason.
The 49ers made clear they have been trying to part with Garoppolo to allow second-year pro Trey Lance to take over under center. The difference in the way the team views Garoppolo versus fans is stark. The team believes they’re in a position of strength with two starting-caliber signal-callers while many teams struggle to find one. So they’re willing to wait on Garoppolo to become healthy in July and hope another team will be desperate enough to deal for him.
Because the only way for Garoppolo to have any market is to be able to throw. Period. And he hasn’t been able to do that since the surgery to repair a capsule in his right shoulder March 8.
Lynch confirmed this week there have been no offers from other teams for Garoppolo, which makes sense despite some questionable reporting throughout the offseason indicating otherwise.
Is Trey Lance ready?
The team’s handling of Garoppolo — deciding against cutting him outright — has led to discussion about how the team feels about Lance and if he’s “ready.”
Shanahan made clear this week the team is ready to make him the starter, though don’t expect Shanahan to announce that outright given he never did last year with Garoppolo.
“That’s why we looked into trading Jimmy, because we obviously believe that Trey can be a starter and we’re ready to do that,” Shanahan said. “But if we can’t upgrade our team in another way, we’re not just going to get rid of a good quarterback because we have other quarterbacks on the roster. Quarterbacks are really hard to come by. Some teams don’t have any at all, and the fact that we have three that we’re happy with, that is a good thing.
“We brought Trey here to be that eventually, and I think that will be sooner than later, but when Jimmy gets his surgery and we can’t upgrade our team by getting some good picks until people feel good about that (procedure), I’m all right with that. We’re not just getting rid of him to get rid of him. Jimmy is a good player that we all really like as a person and as a teammate, and we’re going to wait to see whatever helps the Niners the most.”
CEO Jed York also told reporters at the owners meetings he would be willing to carry Garoppolo and pay him $25.5 million if the 49ers can’t trade him. I have a hard time imagining that scenario playing out unless Garoppolo drastically outplays Lance in training camp.
If we assume Lance goes through the offseason program fully healthy and improves after getting all the starting reps during OTAs, he would open training camp with the starters while Garoppolo will presumably be five months removed from being able to throw. Advantage: Lance.
Where Garoppolo has an advantage, of course, is his experience and knowledge of the offense. Maybe he overtakes Lance and the 49ers decide to stick with the status quo. I’m doubtful that’s how this plays out given how much the 49ers have invested in Lance.
And the longer Lance sits, the more his development is being pushed back. It’s difficult to imagine San Francisco delaying Lance’s growth in favor of playing a quarterback the team spent the offseason trying to trade. No team knows Garoppolo’s limitations more than the 49ers.
But, as we know, anything can happen. It’s awfully difficult to predict anything in the NFL, let alone assume decisions four months before training camp begins.
I think it’s time to relax over the Garoppolo situation. That is, unless the 49ers somehow are persuaded to keep him around after final cuts are made ahead of Week 1. The season better end in a parade down Market Street if that happens. It would impossible to justify otherwise.
