49ers NFC playoff watch: Why tonight’s Rams-Seahawks game has big implications
The San Francisco 49ers have a lot riding on Thursday night’s game between the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks.
Bottom line: the 49ers would have a better chance at the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs if the Seahawks can pull off the victory at Lumen Field in Seattle.
The top seed not only ensures home field advantage throughout the playoffs, but also the only bye week before the conference championship rounds, which the NFL adopted when it expanded the postseason from six to seven teams in each conference in 2020.
The 49ers would also have the rare chance of playing in their home stadium in the Super Bowl. February’s game will be played at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. And the 49ers’ last two Super Bowl appearances after the 2019 and 2023 regular seasons came after they earned No. 1 seeds.
Why Rams-Seahawks is important to 49ers
The 49ers improved to 10-4 with their win Sunday over the Tennessee Titans. The Seahawks and Rams both enter Thursday’s NFC West matchup at 11-3, meaning one will come out of it at 12-3 and the other will be 11-4 (unless there’s a tie.)
Head-to-head tiebreakers could ultimately decide San Francisco’s seeding. The 49ers currently have the best in-division record (4-1) of any NFC West team, but a win for the Rams would give them a 4-1 mark. A loss would put L.A. at 4-2 in the division, meaning San Francisco would take the division-record tiebreaker at 5-1 if they could beat Seattle in the regular season finale Jan. 4.
So if the 49ers and Rams finished with the same record, the first tiebreaker would be division record because they split their two matchups in the regular season.
The next tiebreaker is common games. Through Thursday, the Rams would have the advantage given their wins over the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars, both of whom beat San Francisco . Though the 49ers have a win over Carolina, who beat the Rams Nov. 24. The Rams have one more non-division common opponent on their schedule with a road game against the Atlanta Falcons Dec. 29.
Should the Rams win Thursday, they would remain ahead of the 49ers given their overall record. They’d also likely finish 5-1 in the division, should they take care of business against the 3-11 Arizona Cardinals in Week 18.
The 49ers would need a lot to go right, including likely winning their three remaining games to finish 13-4, to get the No. 1 seed.
According to ESPN models in advance of tonight’s Rams-Seahawks game, the 49ers have a 31% likelihood at finishing with the No. 5 seed, a 37% likelihood at finishing No. 6, a 16% likelihood at No. 7, and a 12% chance at the top overall seed.
How to watch Rams-Seahawks
The Rams-Seahawks game starts at 5:15 p.m. and will be televised on Amazon Prime, so you’ll need a subscription. Other streaming and broadcast information is available here.
This story was originally published December 18, 2025 at 12:23 PM.
