‘It will never completely go away.’ New details emerge on COVID’s toll in Placer County

COVID-19 is surging in Placer County. And there’s no end in sight.

Seventy-two Placer residents died of COVID-19 in December, making it by far the deadliest month of the pandemic and accounting for nearly half the county’s death toll of 160, county public health officials said Tuesday. Health officials warned January was already on pace to surpass December’s death total.

And according to a Stanford University infectious disease expert, Placer County is still very susceptible to further infection.

According to a new report released by the county, nearly half of the year’s total cases were reported in December, in large part due to gatherings during the holiday season. Of the more than 6,000 cases recorded by public health in December, at least a third of those patients reported attending a large gathering. Sixty-eight of the cases reported attending a Thanksgiving gathering, the report said.

Household transmission accounted for another one third of cases.

To better understand the prevalence of COVID-19 in Placer County, county officials enrolled in a study with Stanford University in which a sample of residents was randomly chosen and mailed a survey giving them to option to participate in the study.

Dr. Julie Parsonnet, a professor of epidemiology and population health at Stanford University, told the Placer County Board of Supervisors in a presentation Tuesday that from the data they had received so far, researchers determined just 2.3% of residents had been infected with the virus as of November.

“So that’s low and it again shows that there is still a considerable proportion of Placer County that is at risk for infection, or at least was at risk in November,” Parsonnet said. “And even though we’re having this surge, you will need to assume that the majority of people in the county are not immune. You’re nowhere close to herd immunity and the population remains at high risk. “

Parsonnet said the majority of people who tested positive for the virus did not know they had it.

The early results of the study come four months after the Placer County Board of Supervisors unanimously voted to end the county’s local COVID-19 health emergency, prompting the resignation of former public health officer Dr. Aimee Sisson.

At the time of the board’s resolution, cases and hospitalizations had dropped after a summer surge. However, since the board’s decision, cases have worsened across the state, largely fueled by household transmission.

“I don’t think this virus will completely ever go away,” Parsonnet said. “It might get better by the summer but it will never completely go away.”

Placer COVID rate peaks

Dr. Rob Oldham, director of Placer County health and human services and interim health officer, told the board the county’s test positivity rate was the highest it has ever been, which indicates widespread community transmission. Though, he added, the test positivity rate appeared to be at a plateau in the last weeks, albeit a high one. But there is a potential it could spike again in the next week as cases contracted during the Christmas and New Year’s celebrations begin to appear.

Hospitalizations have followed a similar pattern, he said

On Tuesday, 155 people were hospitalized with the virus in Placer County, leaving only 1.9% ICU capacity, a figure well below the 15% available capacity required by the state in order to lift the stay-at-home order. Still, Placer and the rest of the Sacramento region were removed from a state-ordered stay-at-home order on Tuesday because ICU projections in the weeks ahead are favorable.

Many hospitals are treating very sick patients in general acute care beds because of the lack of availability of ICU beds, Oldham said.

“I think it’s safe to say our ICUs in particular and critical care capacity in general are as stretched as they’ve ever been with no immediate relief in sight,” Oldham said.

Placer County remains in the first phase of its vaccination plan, distributing vaccine to the county’s hospitals, first responders, pharmacies and long-term care facilities from Lincoln to Kings Beach. To date, the county has received 14,000 doses of the vaccine and is administering it at 17 locations. Some of the hospitals have already started administering the second dose to its staff.

“We’re going to continue to scale up our vaccine response in anticipation or receive additional allocations of the vaccine in the future,” said Mike Romero, public health program manager.

This story was originally published January 13, 2021 at 11:10 AM.