California is dry with no rain in sight. Should we start worrying about drought and wildfire?
California’s alarmingly dry winter continues, with no meaningful snow or rain in sight. Although it’s far too soon to predict a drought, experts said wildfire risks could worsen this summer as a result of the shortage of precipitation.
And while the rainy season still has more than two months left, a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Pacific is keeping wet weather at bay, just as it did during the five-year drought, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA. Swain said it’s possible parts of Northern California “could go completely dry in the month of February.”
Private weather forecaster Jan Null said there’s only a 15 percent chance of precipitation levels hitting normal levels. “That’s not where I’m going to put my money on the table,” said Null, founder of Golden Gate Weather Services in Half Moon Bay.
Two weeks after the latest rains fell in Sacramento and many other cities, the short-term forecast calls for more dry weather. As it is, Sacramento’s winter has been 46 percent drier than normal, while Fresno has been 45 percent drier.
Sacramento could be heading into record territory: So far the city hasn’t received any rain in February, a month that normally sees 3.69 inches. The driest February in recorded history in Sacramento saw 0.04 inches of rain, according to Michelle Mead of the National Weather Service.
Fresno hasn’t seen any rain this month, either. The same with Merced.
The Sierra Nevada snowpack is 40 percent below normal. The Department of Water Resource’s eight-station index for the northern Sierra, a closely-watched gauge of precipitation in the mountains and foothills, is 42 percent below normal.
California’s saving grace: It generally takes multiple dry winters to create a drought. Last winter was unusually wet, and there’s still plenty of water in Folsom Lake, Shasta Lake and other major state reservoirs. That should help California muddle through the summer and fall, when the rain totally shuts off and the state has to rely exclusively on water stored in its reservoirs.
The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, which is assembled by a consortium of federal agencies, says “abnormally dry” conditions persist in about one-third of the state, including most of the Sierra and Central Valley, as well as parts of the Bay Area. No portion of the state is facing drought-like conditions, according to the monitor.
Increased wildfire risk
But a dry winter does bring other consequences, even if it doesn’t lead to outright drought. Swain said the lack of moisture in the soil could increase the state’s wildfire risk.
A few parts of the state have had a relatively wet winter. Precipitation is just 10 percent below average in the San Luis Obispo area. Monterey and San Diego have been slightly wetter than average.
The immediate forecast remains bleak. “There is some potential (for rain) early next week but it’s not looking all that great,” said Mead, warning coordination meteorologist at the weather service’s Sacramento office. “It would just be a light rain or a sprinkle.”
Mead said a lengthy dry spell isn’t out of the ordinary, even in a wet winter. “We do typically see anywhere from a three- to six-week dry pattern in the middle of our winter,” she said.
But in a state where vivid memories remain of the epic five-year drought — arguably the worst in California’s recorded history — the lack of rain and snow can quickly become unnerving.
The last drought, which was declared over in 2017, ushered in mandatory restrictions on lawn watering and other uses in urban areas, and severe cutbacks in water delivery to most of California’s farms. Tens of millions of trees died, contributing to increased wildfire risk.
This story was originally published February 11, 2020 at 12:02 PM.