Sierra snowpack withering in California’s dry winter. New satellite image shows the bad news

The image is disturbing and leaves little doubt about California’s growing predicament: The snowpack in the Sierra Nevada is a sad whisper of it was a year ago, a withering testament to the lack of precipitation in the state’s increasingly dry winter.

The National Weather Service tweeted satellite images of the Sierra on Tuesday, showing the stark difference between this year and the above-average snowfall from 2019. The mountain snowpack — a crucial element in the state’s annual water supply — is 53 percent of normal for this time of year, according to the Department of Water Resources.

The immediate forecast isn’t promising. NWS meteorologist Emily Heller said there’s a chance of “some light mountain snow this weekend” — perhaps a couple of inches at elevations of 6,000 feet or above. Even that measly forecast is uncertain.

“It’s too early to get everybody’s hopes up,” Heller said.

Three years after former Gov. Jerry Brown declared the official end of the last drought, the lack of precipitation is putting the state on edge all over again.

California needs a healthy snowpack to replenish its water supply in summer and fall, when the precipitation disappears altogether and the state relies on water in its reservoirs. On average, the snowpack provides about 30 percent of the state’s water needs.

The state also needs moisture in the soil to tamp down the wildfire risk. The historic five-year drought killed tens of millions of trees, helping set the stage for the horrific fire seasons of 2017 and 2018.

The strain on water supplies carries political implications. President Donald Trump is expected to visit Bakersfield on Wednesday to finalize a long-promised plan to ship more water through the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The plan is designed to improve supplies in the southern half of the state, particularly agricultural areas of the San Joaquin Valley where water shortages are frequent and political support for the president is strong.

The plan is already controversial among environmentalists — additional pumping can harm endangered Delta species such as Chinook salmon — and could put pressure on Gov. Gavin Newsom to respond. Newsom signaled last fall he would sue the federal government to block the plan. But lately, the Democratic governor’s administration has backed away from that threat and has endorsed a broad compromise plan on water supply.

The current forecast, which extends through next Monday, doesn’t include any rainfall in the Valley. Sacramento hasn’t seen rain since Jan. 26 and could go through all of February without any rain — a first, according to NWS records. February is typically one of the wettest months of the year, with more than 3.5 inches falling in Sacramento. The driest February on record in Sacramento was in 1899, when 0.04 inches of rain fell.

All told, Sacramento has received half as much rain as normal this winter. Fresno is at just 51 percent of normal. Los Angeles is 77 percent of normal.

The likelihood of another drought remains unclear. Last winter was wetter than usual, leaving the major reservoirs in fairly good shape. Shasta Lake is actually 10 percent fuller than usual for this time of year, although Folsom is 11 percent below average. Lake Oroville is 6 percent below average.

The U.S. Drought Monitor, a weekly barometer of weather data compiled by multiple federal agencies, shows nearly 10 percent of California is in “moderate drought” conditions, mainly in the southern Sierra and San Joaquin Valley. A week ago, none of the state was in drought.

Another 37 percent of the state is “abnormally dry,” including much of the Sacramento Valley and parts of Southern California, according to the monitor.

This story was originally published February 18, 2020 at 10:39 AM.