Has California ‘bent the curve’? Hospital numbers suggest plateau of summer coronavirus surge
California may be bending the curve again in its coronavirus fight after a turbulent two months of rising rates, although once-burned officials remain shy about offering any boasts that the resilient virus is anywhere near tamed.
The number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals around the state has dropped 22 percent in the last three weeks to 5,596 Californians from a high of 7,170.
That’s a reversal of what had been a worrisome month-plus surge of increased hospitalizations. COVID hospital patient numbers are considered one of the key indicators of how deeply the virus is hitting the state. The number of intensive care patients also has come down off its peak from three weeks ago.
But it is not enough yet to say the state is over the hump, Gov. Gavin Newsom said Monday, just days after the state death toll topped 10,000.
State officials thought they had the virus under control two months ago when case numbers were far lower than they are now. But the state experienced resurgent infections, hospitalizations and deaths after Newsom and county officials began reopening businesses in mid-May.
“Encouraging signs,” Newsom said during a press conference Monday about the hospital numbers, “but not the kind of stability and long-term decline we need ultimately to get.”
The recent June-July surge in cases has put pressure on crowded intensive care units statewide, and prompted Newsom to call in federal military doctors and nurses to assist at several Central Valley hospitals.
Central Valley healthcare facilities continue to be under particular duress with limited intensive care space available. Those are Fresno, Madera, Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Solano and Yolo counties.
Sacramento County is seeing a similar but less well-defined drop in hospital patients in recent days. As of Monday, county hospitals reported 261 patients, down from a high of 281 on July 30.
Recent hospitalizations included a 10-year-old boy from South Lake Tahoe who is suffering from what his family said is Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome. MIS-C is a rare and serious coronavirus-related illness that afflicts young people, and is linked to COVID-19.
The boy, who was being treated at UC Davis Children’s Hospital, according to family, was released Saturday and is home recovering after what his grandfather told The Sacramento Bee is a major improvement in his condition late last week.
He had been on oxygen and intravenous feeding in the hospital, grandfather Casey Howard said. “It’s a remarkable recovery. He is a tough kid. Tougher than nails.”
Sacramento health officials ‘cautiously optimistic’
Sacramento Health Officer Dr. Olivia Kasirye said last week she believes the re-closure of some businesses in early July and the increased usage of masks have made a difference, but she cautioned that the improved situation will only continue of people practice social distancing, wash hands and wear masks.
“We can be cautiously optimistic that things have changed since the closures,” she said last week when the hospital numbers began to show a change. “We need to stay the course.
“Right now, our focus is the messaging.”
County health chief Dr. Peter Beilenson sounded cautious as well, saying on Monday the county is still in watch-and-wait mode.
It remains unclear, though, both locally and statewide, how much the overall virus infection rate is dropping. The state suffered a serious technological glitch several weeks ago that has caused a case-reporting bottleneck.
State’s glitch didn’t affect hospitalization rates
That bottleneck did not not affect the accuracy of hospital patient numbers, but has made it hard to know how many people are being infected. Most infected people do not end up in the hospital.
The state and counties are expected to process the backlog in the next few days. That process began Monday in Sacramento County: The county reported 1,245 new COVID-19 cases, almost all of them a part of the catch-up process, involving cases that had happened as far back as the first week of July, most of which happened though over the last three weeks.
Partial data from California, analyzed by Johns Hopkins University, show the state’s positivity rate has dropped from a high of 8% on July 23 to about 5.6% over the weekend. That number still leaves California above the recommended 5% level by the World Health Organization for reopening most businesses.
The rate was at its lowest in late May at 4.0%. That was about a week after Newsom and counties reopened most businesses following a March and April “stay at home” order.
In Sacramento County, that positivity rate trend is inconclusive, mainly due to the state computer glitch that created the backlog of unreported cases. That rate had been 1% in April, then swing to a high of 8.8% on July 22. County officials said they believe the rate will be lower than that when its database is fully updated this week.
This story was originally published August 10, 2020 at 5:51 PM.