Coronavirus infections are dropping in Sacramento County. How we can avoid another spike

After an alarming summer coronavirus spike, Sacramento County’s infection rate has dropped in recent weeks to what some pandemic experts say is the safe threshold for reopening businesses, solid evidence that the county may successfully be bending the pandemic curve.

Sacramento County health officials, however, warn that though infection numbers, hospitalizations and deaths are lower than they were weeks ago, the numbers could turn for the worse if people make the mistake of thinking the crisis is over.

It appears on some days that more than 200 people are still testing positive, indicating the virus is still very active in the county. Those daily case numbers are erratic, however, due to a state computer backlog.

“We still have to be cautious so we can continue this downward trend,” Dr. Olivia Kasirye said on Thursday. “Our hope is to continue to reduce the numbers so we can slowly reopen and not have a spike again. We want to get low enough to reopen schools.”

There are hurdles ahead, though.

With Labor Day weekend approaching, state health chief Dr. Mark Ghaly this week implored the public not to participate in the type of big gatherings the state saw at the beginning of summer during Memorial Day weekend when many in the state prematurely thought the worst of the pandemic was over.

Ghaly acknowledged that people will get together. “Keep it small, keep it outside, wear your masks, keep a six feet distance,” he said.

A second hurdle is approaching: flu season. Officials are asking people to get flu shots so that, should COVID-19 cases see another upswing, hospitals and healthcare providers will not be overwhelmed as they deal with two viral issues at the same time.

In Sacramento County, new data offer a dose of good news and some relief after a summer of rising cases and deaths.

Most notably, the county’s virus test positivity rate has dropped to 5.6% over the past seven days, the lowest it has been in two months. The peak was six weeks ago, at 8%.

The World Health Organization has established 5% as the threshold number for safely reopening much of society. Sacramento still has a slightly higher percentage of positive coronavirus tests than the state’s overall 4.4.% number.

Sacramento has improved over the past six weeks in another key statistical area. County hospitals were dealing with 281 confirmed COVID patients a month ago. As of Wednesday, there were 187 confirmed virus patients in county hospitals, a steady decline from the peak.

The dropping numbers suggest both the state and the county have benefited from orders to shut down many businesses in the last six weeks amid a surge of cases in June and July. Health officer Dr. Kasirye said she also credits more people wearing masks.

As of earlier this week, 54 patients were in intensive care in local hospitals. Although that is lower than the peak of 91 a month ago, it remains concerning and continues to put pressure on healthcare workers and services.

Citing improved numbers statewide, Gov. Gavin Newsom announced last week a revised plan for slowly reopening more businesses, starting this week with allowing hair stylists and barbers to resume indoor hair cutting statewide.

The governor’s new plan allows some counties with very low numbers, such as El Dorado County, to reopen indoor restaurant dining at 25% of capacity.

Sacramento County is still categorized as a higher-risk county, which prohibits most schools from reopening for in-class instruction.

In total, the county has had 18,607 virus cases and 317 deaths as of Wednesday.

Under state rules, however, county officials can grant reopening waivers for kindergarten to sixth grade for schools that show they have taken a series of precautions to prevent virus cases from spreading.

County health officials said they will review waiver requests for potential approval later this month, if virus statistics continue to improve.

“By that time we’ll have better numbers to be able to accommodate that, if they continue to move in the direction they are going,” county health chief Dr. Peter Beilenson said.

This story was originally published September 3, 2020 at 11:39 AM.