Coronavirus updates: Sacramento sets 2 new case records; California spike accelerates
California’s spiking coronavirus numbers grow more concerning by the day.
Some of the state’s most closely monitored metrics have recently increased at speeds comparable to those from the start of the summer surge — the June-to-August stretch that produced more COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations and deaths in Californians than any other period of the pandemic.
California has averaged more than 5,600 new cases a day over the past two weeks, exceeding 7,000 on three of the past five days, data from the California Department of Public Health show.
The state has reported more than 991,000 lab-confirmed COVID-19 cases since the start of the pandemic. At the current pace, California will most likely breach 1 million this weekend. More than 18,100 Californians have died of the contagious disease since the start of the health crisis, the state says.
California had exactly 3,300 coronavirus patients in hospitals as of Thursday, including 913 in intensive care units, according to a state data dashboard. The hospitalized total has gone up about 50% in the past month, and the ICU rate has grown by 50% in a little less than three weeks.
The coronavirus patient total in hospitals is also up 30% in just the first 10 days of November, growing each day this month. For comparison, hospitalizations increased from about 3,100 to 4,250 — a 37% boom — from June 14 to June 24, which was the first 10-day period of the summer surge in which the patient total consistently grew.
Test positivity, which is the proportion of diagnostic tests conducted for COVID-19 that return positive for the disease and a favored metric health experts look at to monitor true levels of virus spread, is at 3.9% for the past two weeks. Ten days ago, the rolling two-week rate was 3.2%.
California’s rolling positivity rate was 4.5% on June 14. By June 24, it had reached 5.1%. It ended up peaking around 7.5% in July.
As evidenced by this Tuesday’s tier list update — which demoted nine counties to tighter business restrictions, placed 20 others at risk of being downgraded next week and didn’t promote any to looser tiers — California’s recent increase in coronavirus activity has been spread throughout the state rather than centralized to any one region.
But the capital region is among those being hit hardest, in terms of new cases, rising positivity rate and soaring hospital totals.
Of concern, Sacramento County has broken its record single-day record for newly reported COVID-19 cases twice this week. Health officials added 484 on Tuesday and then 496 Thursday morning, sandwiched around nearly 300 more lab-confirmed infections reported Wednesday.
Close to 30,000 people in Sacramento County have tested positive for the respiratory disease. That equates to nearly one in every 50 county residents receiving a positive result in the first eight months of the pandemic. At least 517 have died of the virus, the local health office reports.
One of the few silver linings for California is that its virus activity is starting from a lower baseline than it did in June. The state also enters the winter months from a much lower baseline than other parts of the U.S. Some parts of the country are currently being ravaged, with numerous reports of hospital systems already reaching capacity in some Midwest states.
Though direct comparisons can be difficult because the test positivity calculation method varies from state to state, a Thursday analysis from Johns Hopkins University showed there are 14 states with rates above 15%. The World Health Organization has recommended economies should remain closed when the rate is higher than 5%.
With additional challenges posed by colder weather, Thanksgiving, the winter holidays and a fatigued populace strained by what soon will be eight months under the statewide stay-at-home order, there’s little to suggest a quick turnaround to the troubling trend. While there has been some promising news on the vaccine front, Gov. Gavin Newsom says a widely available vaccine is “many months” away.
The rough start to November could be just a foreshadowing of what’s to come. To prevent things from getting significantly worse, state and local health officials continue to plead with the public to follow the protocols that have been in place for months: Wear a mask, keep six feet of distance from those outside of your household and avoid large gatherings.
The last point has been the emphasis of late, with Newsom and other leaders attributing the recent uptick to too many people letting down their guard, especially around Halloween.
Six-county capital region surpasses 43,000 total cases
The six-county Sacramento region has combined for at least 669 COVID-19 deaths during the pandemic and on Thursday surpassed 43,000 lab-confirmed infections.
Sacramento County has recorded a total of 29,510 cases and 517 deaths in the past eight months. The county reported a record-high 496 new cases on Thursday.
The county on Wednesday estimated that roughly 3,500 of those cases are still active, which would be about 12% of the total for the entire pandemic. Active infections peaked during the summer surge around 3,600, and fell to around 1,700 at one point in October.
There were 153 patients hospitalized with coronavirus in Sacramento County as of Thursday, down five from Wednesday but still a huge surge above the 90 reported last Friday, according to state data. The number of ICU patients is 34, up from 20 last Friday.
The county has confirmed 51 deaths for October and its first fatality of November in a resident who died Nov. 2. Just over 115 died in September and nearly 180 died in August.
Sacramento is in the purple tier, the strictest in California’s reopening framework.
Yolo County has reported 3,612 total infections and 64 deaths from COVID-19. The county reported 34 new cases on Wednesday following 51 on Tuesday. Health officials reported one new death Tuesday in an unincorporated part of the county.
Yolo had five patients in hospitals with COVID-19 as of Thursday, including three in ICUs, state data show.
Yolo County entered the week at risk of demotion, but remained in the red tier after numbers improved compared to the previous week. The earliest Yolo could move to a stricter or looser tier is Nov. 24.
Placer County surpassed 5,000 total cases Thursday. The county reported 63 new cases and two new fatalities, for all-time totals of 5,056 infected and 62 dead. The county added 81 new cases Wednesday following 59 on Tuesday.
Placer estimates that more than 700, or about 14% of its all-time cases, were still active as of Wednesday.
Placer reported on its local hospitalization dashboard Thursday that it had 45 patients in hospital beds with COVID-19, all but two of them being treated specifically for the disease, and seven in ICUs for COVID-19 treatment. State data on Thursday showed 50 hospitalized in Placer County and eight in ICUs.
Placer on its dashboard says its test positivity rate was 4.6% for the week ending Nov. 3, the most recent span with data available. The rolling seven-day average shot up by 0.5% in a single day and is now at its highest point in two full months, dating to the week ending Sept. 3.
Because Placer’s move from the orange tier to the red tier on Tuesday was delayed by one week due to the county’s adjudication request, which was denied, and because its rate of new cases per 100,000 fell in the purple tier, Placer County faces demotion down to the purple tier as early as next week. It is unclear whether it can or will adjudicate again, if that downgrade happens.
El Dorado County is one of a small number of counties in California with a single-digit death toll, with just four fatalities since the start of the pandemic. Health officials have reported a tally of 1,558 cases after adding 21 new cases to its total Tuesday afternoon. The county did not update its data on Wednesday due to Veterans Day.
El Dorado had five hospitalized COVID-19 patients as of Thursday, all of them in ICUs, up one from Wednesday.
El Dorado County has entered an adjudication process with the state to remain in the orange tier despite failing to maintain the metrics required of that stage for the past two weeks.
Sutter County health officials have reported a total of 2,134 people positive for coronavirus and 12 deaths. The county reported 25 new cases Thursday. Five people infected with COVID-19 were hospitalized as of Thursday, and one person was in intensive care, according to county health officials.
Sutter says about 160 of its cases are active, or 7.5% of its cumulative total.
Yuba County officials have reported a total of 1,529 COVID-19 infections and 10 deaths. The county reported 26 new infections Thursday. Yuba had two patients infected with COVID-19 hospitalized, with one in an ICU.
Yuba reports it has about 110 active cases, or 7.2% its running total.
Sutter and Yuba, which share a bi-county health office, are both in the red tier but both failed to meet red-tier requirements in Tuesday’s update from the state. They face demotion to the purple tier as early as next week.
This story was originally published November 12, 2020 at 11:38 AM.
