Most California counties at highest COVID risk before Christmas, data show

Daily COVID-19 cases in a vast majority of California’s counties have reached a “tipping point” before Christmas, according to Harvard University data.

Researchers are mapping coronavirus risk levels by state and county by the seven-day average of new cases per 100,000 people. As of Dec. 17, at least 52 of California’s 58 counties are in the “red” zone, with 25 or more cases of the coronavirus per 100,000 people.

The Harvard Global Health Institute released a map that uses four colors to show the risk level in different counties: green, yellow, orange and red. Red means that a certain area is at a “tipping point” and stay-at-home orders are “necessary.”

California reported 53,711 daily cases on Dec. 16, including a backlog of 12,630 previously unprocessed cases, meaning the state has 41,081 new cases for Wednesday — California’s highest single-day record, The Sacramento Bee reported. Officials also reported a record 293 deaths in the state on Wednesday, compared to the previous high of 225 deaths on Saturday.

Hospitals are also grappling with overwhelmed intensive care units and scrambling to accommodate capacity. As of Wednesday, nearly 3,200 COVID-19 patients were in ICU, leaving a little over 1,300 ICU beds available statewide.

There are more than 17 million confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. and more than 307,000 deaths as of Dec. 17, according to Johns Hopkins University.

County breakdown

Lassen County and Imperial County have among the highest per capita case rates as of Dec. 17, according to the risk level dashboard. The rates were 543 and 172.9 daily new cases per 100,000 people, respectively.

Tuolumne County also has a high per capita rate, with 163.1 cases per 100,000 people as of Dec. 17.

San Bernardino County has 141.5 cases per 100,000 people while Sutter County has 130.1 new daily cases per 100,000 people, Harvard researchers found.

Sacramento County is also in the “red” level with 58.6 cases per 100,000 people and at least 51,000 total cases as of Dec. 17. Fresno County has 55.1 cases of the virus per 100,000 people, the data found, while Stanislaus County has 77.6 cases for every 100,000 residents.

San Luis Obispo County has 46.9 coronavirus cases per 100,000 people, data show, and Merced County has 32.5.

Holiday Risk

The Georgia Institute of Technology released a map that helps assess the risk of at least one person testing positive for COVID-19 at your holiday event.

A gathering of 50 people in Sacramento and Fresno counties has a risk level of 76% and 65% respectively — reflecting the probability at least one coronavirus-positive person will show up. Stanislaus and Merced counties have a risk of 87% and 78% respectively for an event of the same size.

San Luis Obispo County has a risk level of 63% for a gathering of 50 people.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert, said that travel advisories and restrictions may be required during the holiday season to stop the spread of coronavirus.

“What we expect, unfortunately, as we go for the next couple of weeks into December, is that we might see a surge superimposed on the surge we are already in,” Fauci said in an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Nov. 29. “I don’t want to frighten people, except to say it is not too late to do something about this.”

Despite the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advising against travel for Thanksgiving, more than 9 million Americans did so at airports in the week before the holiday and the following weekend, according to CNBC.

The CDC warns that holiday gatherings with people who don’t live in your household can increase the risk of spreading COVID-19.

“As cases, hospitalizations, and deaths continue to increase across the United States, the safest way to celebrate the winter holidays is to celebrate at home with people who live with you,” the CDC wrote.

This story was originally published December 17, 2020 at 8:19 AM.