Fact check: Sacramento Sheriff Scott Jones casts doubt on COVID stats in Facebook post
Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones hasn’t been shy about it: He is not fond of California’s stay-at-home restrictions in response to the coronavirus pandemic.
In early December, as he was isolating after contracting COVID-19 with symptoms he described as mild, he posted a detailed explanation to Facebook for why his department is not enforcing the state’s mask mandate, its 10 p.m.-to-5 a.m. curfew or other health order violations.
This week, Jones — the top elected law enforcement official in the region — put up another long Facebook post, this one criticizing hospitals along with state and other government leaders on a variety of pandemic-related topics, ranging from shutdowns to vaccine distribution to the counting of death tolls.
The Sacramento Bee looked into 10 of the sheriff’s claims and questions.
Hospital procedures
“If ICU capacity is going to be used as the arbitrary metric for shutting down our free society, why don’t hospitals again curtail unnecessary or non-imminent procedures, surgeries and hospital stays to keep the maximum number of ICU beds available, even if the hospitals’ profits may suffer?”
Fact check: Mostly false or misleading.
Hospitals are curtailing these procedures, including in the Greater Sacramento region.
Kaiser Permanente put a one-week pause on elective, non-urgent surgeries lasting from Dec. 28 to Monday of this week, explicitly to free up space and resources due to the COVID-19 surge, the San Jose Mercury News first reported last month.
Sutter Health, another major health provider in the area, says on its website that it is monitoring the current situation and “may temporarily suspend certain procedures” if necessary.
Jones’ classification of intensive care unit capacity as “arbitrary” is also a poor descriptor, as crises are already unfolding in other parts of California within days of ICU availability reaching 0%. Hospitals’ ICUs are beyond overwhelmed in Southern California and in the San Joaquin Valley.
Additionally, Jones’ claim that hospitals should put off surgeries and other non-imminent procedures “to keep the maximum number of ICU beds available” is misleading. Surgeries and non-imminent procedures do not use ICU beds. However, hospitals in hard-hit parts of California in which ICUs are full have had to resort to treating virus and non-virus patients in those types of beds.
Death toll from COVID-19
“If a positive test is NOT required by CDC guidelines for a determination of COVID as a cause of death, and hospitals receive significant funds for reaching COVID-death thresholds — combined with the fact that numbers for flu and other causes of death are significantly down this year — can we trust the statistics like we WANT to be able to trust them? The CDC stated in August that they estimated only 6% of ‘COVID deaths’ were caused exclusively from COVID, whereas the remaining 94% had an average of 2.6 other health factors or co-morbidities.”
Fact check: Highly misleading.
Here, Jones is referencing a discredited viral conspiracy theory centered on the August report he mentions from the CDC, which was quickly and severely misinterpreted in some corners of the internet as meaning only 6% of the COVID-19 death toll are “true” COVID-19 fatalities.
Instead, the report simply confirmed what health officials had long been saying: that the coronavirus is most deadly for those with existing health conditions.
It is true that a positive test is not always required to determine COVID-19 as a cause of death, but CDC guidelines say a death is classified as such when a death certificate lists the disease “as an underlying cause of death or a significant condition contributing to death” and in “the absence of a more likely diagnosis.”
Many health experts have noted that flu numbers are likely down significantly this year because many people are following social distancing protocols due to the pandemic, which appears to be causing a large decrease in influenza transmission.
Public service pay cuts
“Why can’t I see any leader — state or federal — that has sacrificed in ANY way throughout this pandemic like the rest of us have? NONE have suffered a cut in pay, and most have their school-aged children attending in-person private schools.”
Fact check: Mixed. Mostly true for federal leaders, mostly false for state leaders.
Congressional members have not taken a pay cut, because that decision requires passing a law.
In California, some state leaders and tens of thousands of government employees have seen a pay cut. The 2020-21 budget included a 9.23% salary decrease for state workers as one of several tactics Newsom and the Legislature used to fill a projected $54 billion deficit due to the pandemic.
Newsom said he and his staff would take the cuts, which were applied retroactively to July 1.
Other California constitutional officers also requested the pay reduction, including State Controller Betty Yee, Treasurer Fiona Ma, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, Attorney General Xavier Becerra and Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara, according to Yee’s office.
At least five members of the Legislature also asked for the cuts to apply to their paycheck. They include former Sen. Jerry Hill, D-San Mateo; Sen. Susan Eggman, D-Stockton; former Assemblyman Todd Gloria, now mayor of San Diego; Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez, D-San Diego; and former Assemblywoman Christy Smith, D-Santa Clarita.
Approximately 243,000 state employees had their pay cut, resulting in a total savings of $2.69 billion, according to the Department of Finance.
Adults vs. kids
“How can Congress or the state Legislature — whose members fall into various risk categories from low to high — convene in classroom-type settings, but my kids — who are at no risk — cannot?”
Fact check: Mostly false.
Both Congress and the Legislature have had to drastically change the way they do their work.
In Washington, D.C., and Sacramento, lawmakers are required to socially distance and wear facial coverings, while hand sanitizer and plexiglass in some cases are used as additional precautionary measures.
To avoid gathering in a “classroom-type” setting, the Assembly convened Dec. 7 at the Golden 1 Center in downtown Sacramento for a celebratory event to mark the start of the 2021-22 session. The basketball stadium allowed for members to keep 6 feet apart at separated desks.
In the state Capitol, both houses have modified their voting and gathering protocols. State senators are allowed in some cases to vote remotely, while Assembly members can request a proxy vote.
Committee meetings are held in larger rooms so members can space out, and public testimony is largely taken via phone or through virtual participation.
Although the Senate met in its chamber for the Organizational Session on the same day, some senators opted to take their oaths of office remotely.
While the U.S. Senate continues to vote in a traditional manner, the House of Representatives now votes in subgroups, rather than as a whole body. Members are also allowed to vote by proxy through a rule that’s been extended to mid-February.
Who gets the vaccine?
“How can every member of Congress — as well as two staffers for EACH member (with an average age of 31) — get the vaccine before my 80-year-old parents can?”
Fact check: It’s complicated.
The answer to Jones’ question is that Brian Monahan, the attending physician for Congress, has recommended all members plus up to two of each member’s staff members take the vaccine so that government operations can continue uninterrupted. They are considered essential workers.
But Jones is criticizing decisions that have been made in the vaccine distribution process.
Because the new vaccines remain in very limited supply in the U.S., federal and state government and health leaders have had to make decisions, often controversial, regarding who gets jabbed first.
There are two main factors in determining priority: Who is most vulnerable to COVID-19, and which workers are considered most essential (such that COVID-19 infections in those groups have outsized negative impacts on society)?
How supplies of vaccines should be balanced between those two cohorts is perhaps both the most difficult and most important question being considered at the moment in the U.S. pandemic response.
Jones’ question is accurate in that, according to CDC recommendations, both non-health care essential workers and adults age 75 are older are within the same phase (1B) of distribution. And practically speaking within that phase, Monahan’s recommendation suggest it’s very likely Congress members and their staff will receive vaccines before many Americans in their 80s do.
Double standards?
“Why are individual cases and regional spikes blamed on the people who contract the virus — that somehow they MUST have not followed safe practices or government-imposed rules? Does the long list of political leaders who have violated their own mandates — mandates they may actually believe in — simply demonstrate that they think they are smarter and better at assessing their own risk than we are?”
Fact check: Mostly true.
These questions are primarily Jones expressing opinion and frustration, but Jones’ reference to the “long list” of leaders violating mandates is mostly accurate, though in some instances there’s enough ambiguity in the guidelines that it’s unclear whether the actions explicitly violated them.
Government leaders violating health orders — with Newsom’s infamous dinner at the French Laundry, first reported by the San Francisco Chronicle, the most notable example — have been pointed to by many as hypocrisy and undercutting the public’s confidence by failing to lead by example. Newsom acknowledged that instance as a “bad mistake.”
News broke a couple of weeks later that San Francisco Mayor London Breed also dined, in a party of eight, at the same Napa County restaurant one night after Newsom did.
There have been numerous other examples across the U.S., inside and outside of California.
On field hospitals
“Is the old ARCO Arena, that was set up to house 400 COVID patients at a cost of over $12 million including staff and equipment, being utilized in the equation to lower ICU beds in the ‘greater Sacramento region’?”
Fact check: Yes, it is.
The overflow site at Sleep Train (formerly ARCO) Arena has been used in the current surge for weeks. So far, only the portion located in the arena’s practice facility has seen use.
The site has 20 beds in “active” status and another 224, which would need to be used in the main arena, in “warm status,” which means they can be made available in about one to three days, if needed. As of Monday, 17 of the 20 active beds at Sleep Train were occupied by patients, according to a state health data dashboard.
Jones refers to the site being used for COVID-19 patients, but health and emergency officials have made clear that the field hospital can be used for virus or non-virus patients, as determined by need.
The 400 patient count is a slight overestimate but more or less accurate: the Army Corps of Engineers originally designed the makeshift hospital to handle 360 patients, though months later the total bed count adds up to 244.
In-person dining vs. gatherings
“If only a little over 1% of COVID cases can be traced back to in-person dining — and over 70% of cases are from large gatherings — why aren’t the restrictions more tailored to represent the actual risk of transmission?”
Fact check: Mostly false.
Jones did not give a source for either of these statistics, and their origin is unclear.
It appears the 1% figure may have come from New York state last month reporting that about 1.4% of its confirmed cases were linked to restaurant dining in the most recent three-month stretch. This window did not include New York’s worst surge of the pandemic, which came in the spring.
California’s health department as of Tuesday morning hasn’t released any statewide data regarding what percentage of COVID-19 cases may be connected to restaurant dining, nor to any other cause. Neither has Sacramento County’s local health office.
In the limited examples The Bee could find within the state, none cited the percentage of cases linked to large gatherings anywhere near as high as 70%.
Placer, one of the few Greater Sacramento region counties to keep data on potential exposure settings, reported that about 20% of cases confirmed in October for which a contact tracing interview was completed reported attending a large gathering. For November, that figure dipped to 18%.
Essential retailers
“Why can I pack shoulder-to-shoulder into a Walmart, Home Depot or Costco, but cannot sit in a dining booth that is disinfected after every customer, or in a church that has deliberate disinfecting and social distancing protocols?”
Fact check: Mostly false.
Retailers are mandated to limiting capacity, depending on the severity of the pandemic in their area, and social distancing protocols are still required at these businesses.
State Department of Public Health guidelines designate retail and grocery stores as essential businesses that cannot practically serve their purpose while closing for indoor operations, whereas other types of essential activities have what the state considers reasonable alternatives for operating without being open indoors to customers or, for churches, worshippers.
Restaurants have been relegated to takeout and delivery service only, while churches have been limited to outdoor or virtual service only.
Jones is far from alone in this critique. Many churches nationwide have argued that limiting services in this way is a violation of the First Amendment. And countless restaurants have already had to close permanently, unable to turn profits based on takeout and delivery alone.
Stay-at-home order ‘is not working’
“If what California is doing to battle the virus is not working, why would we just do MORE of it?”
Fact check: Inconclusive.
This is Jones’ broadest claim, and one that also has been expressed in various forms by many opponents of California’s stay-at-home order.
Some argue that the current surge’s intensity, even after health officials instituted a flurry of new shutdown orders, is evidence that the restrictions are ineffective.
The truth is more complicated. Academic studies, including one published by the peer-reviewed Journal of Infectious Diseases in November, concluded that “statewide mitigation strategies were strongly associated with increased epidemic doubling time,” meaning stay-at-home orders were linked to a slower rate of spread. The study considers California’s initial order, which Newsom announced March 19.
There are, however, some key differences this time around.
Newsom and state Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly first started referring in mid-November to business opening rollbacks as an “emergency brake” to halt rampant COVID-19 spread that took root earlier that month.
The timing of November’s shutdown, though, has made it difficult to determine its effect.
Demotions into the strict “purple” tier for counties came the week before Thanksgiving — a holiday that health leaders pointed to as a likely source for surge due to many multiple-household gatherings. More recently, Christmas and New Year’s presented similar challenges.
At this point, it’s still too early to determine to what extent restrictions impacted the surge because they are ineffective — “not working,” as Jones phrases it — or because the recent major holidays canceled out any progress they otherwise would have made.
