Will California face brutal COVID winter? Why it’s still unclear as holidays approach
Coronavirus activity in California has stayed mostly flat for the past several weeks.
With some slight, recent fluctuations in activity, along with worsening conditions around other parts of the globe, it remains difficult to forecast whether the Golden State will see another severe surge take hold this winter.
Generally, health officials warn that the winter months elevate the risk of COVID-19 transmission due to a string of major holidays plus colder weather driving more gatherings indoors, where the virus spreads more easily. California’s worst surge of the pandemic came last winter.
But comparing winter 2020 to winter 2021 is complicated, even halfway through November.
On one hand, about two-thirds of all Californians are now fully vaccinated; more than 4.2 million have received booster doses; and children 5 to 11 were recently cleared for vaccination, meaning the earliest rounds of young kids to get a jab could be fully inoculated in time for Christmas or at least New Year’s Day.
On the other, the state has to contend with the far more contagious delta variant, which hadn’t yet emerged last year; the removal of many restrictions, such as capacity limits and social distancing; K-12 campuses being open for in-person instruction; vaccine protection possibly waning for the earliest to receive them; and vaccination rates remaining uneven in California, both geographically and demographically.
Health experts are warning the public to err on the side of caution, stay diligent during the holidays and get vaccinated for COVID-19 and the flu.
Gov. Gavin Newsom recently pointed to the steep surges currently developing in Europe as evidence the pandemic is far from over. Nationwide, virus cases have begun ticking back up in the U.S. in the past few weeks, after nearly two months of decline, federal data show.
Newsom urged unvaccinated Californians to get a first dose and those who are fully vaccinated to get a booster dose when available.
State health chief Dr. Mark Ghaly announced that all adults six months beyond their second dose of Pfizer or Moderna or two months after Johnson & Johnson may receive a booster.
“Absolutely, if you are interested in getting a booster, we ask you to go ahead and get yourself signed up to get one,” Ghaly said last Wednesday.
What do California’s COVID numbers show?
Newsom last week noted that the statewide total of virus patients in hospitals had been ticking up. Several days later, though, virus hospitalizations have declined by about 10%, falling from around 3,900 in early November to just below 3,500 this week, according to California Department of Public Health data.
California’s test positivity increased from a flat 2% on Oct. 17 to 2.3% by Halloween, but has since fallen back down to 2%. The statewide case rate grew from 12.2 daily cases per 100,000 residents in mid-October to 14 per 100,000 by the end of the month, then dropped to 11.9 as of Tuesday. The latest is California’s lowest reported rate since mid-July.
Most of the Sacramento area has seen case and test positivity numbers improve in recent weeks, according to CDPH. Sacramento has watched its case rate fall from 18 to 10 per 100,000 in less than three weeks, according to the local health office, resuming a decline that had paused for close to a month.
The state reports Yolo County as having the lowest positivity rate among all counties at 0.6%, half of what it was in late October. Placer County positivity has dropped from 5.6% to 3.5% since the end of last month, and Sacramento County from 4.1% to 3%. El Dorado County has stayed mostly flat, near 4.5%.
All are good signs, but they remain short-term developments. The biggest test will begin next week, as millions gather with friends and loved ones for Thanksgiving.
CDPH has guidance, updated earlier this month, for safely celebrating the holidays. The first recommendation listed is to get vaccinated. The second is to keep gatherings small. The third is to wear masks indoors, unless everyone at the gathering is fully vaccinated.
Hospitals filling, not just from COVID
Though CDPH now reports its lowest virus patient total since late July, the 3,500 mark is about 40% higher than just before the start of last winter’s surge.
Some counties hit hard this summer by the delta variant — including Butte, Fresno, Shasta and a few others in Northern California and the San Joaquin Valley — are well above 40% more virus patients hospitalized now than mid-November of last year.
Sacramento County’s latest virus total in hospitals is slightly lower than mid-November 2020, while Placer County, reported by CDPH in recent days at around 100 patients, has roughly twice as many as this time last year.
While 3,500 hospitalized statewide pales in comparison to last winter’s peak of nearly 22,000, state epidemiologist Dr. Erica Pan says the combination of COVID-19 and non-COVID maladies has already elevated hospital census counts to similar levels as last winter.
“Overall census is already close to last winter surge in most regions except Southern CA,” Pan tweeted over the weekend, along with a graph showing hospital census levels in five geographic regions. “W/ COVID trends plateauing & other respiratory viruses on the rise (eg RSV), this is why we r (sic) worried.”
Pan’s graphs showed that the San Joaquin Valley was recently at about 120% of its hospital census baseline, and that COVID-positive cases make up about 20% of the census total, both the highest among the five regions.
Rural Northern California was next, at about 115% and 15%, respectively, followed by Greater Sacramento at about 110% of baseline census with 10% being COVID-positive.
Hospital census numbers fared better in the Bay Area and Southern California.
The graphs largely align with regional trends for vaccination: in general, rural Northern California counties have some of the state’s lowest vaccination rates, along with most of the San Joaquin Valley; most Greater Sacramento counties trail the state average slightly; Southern California is a bit above average; and Bay Area counties top the list with the highest rates.
CDPH reports that, for the week ending Oct. 31, unvaccinated residents were about seven times more likely than the fully vaccinated to test positive, 10 times more likely to be hospitalized with the virus and 17 times more likely to die from it.
Filling hospitals are another reason health officials are urging people to get flu shots as soon as possible. Sacramento County for weeks has held dual clinics, offering both flu and COVID-19 vaccines, which federal agencies say can be safely co-administered.
Boosters and child vaccination
Local health officials, including Sacramento County health officer Dr. Olivia Kasirye, have said COVID-19 booster doses and vaccinations for newly eligible children ages 5 to 11 may represent the difference between surge and no surge this winter.
Close to 150,000 Sacramento County residents have received boosters, the local health office reported last Friday, which is about one-quarter of all who have been fully vaccinated for at least six months.
About 8.9% of young kids in the county have gotten a first dose of Pfizer’s vaccine, slightly above the state average of 8.6%, according to CDPH data updated Tuesday.
Child vaccination rates vary widely by county. About 17% of young children in Yolo County and 13% in Placer County have had a first dose. In nearby Yuba and Sutter counties, only a respective 2% and 1.5% have received one.
This story was originally published November 16, 2021 at 11:02 AM.
