Is Sacramento’s homelessness count accurate? Nonprofit says survey is ‘hard to believe’
Sacramento’s largest homeless service provider is questioning a new report that claims Sacramento’s homeless population has drastically decreased in the last two years.
There are now an estimated 6,600 homeless people living in Sacramento County’s shelters, streets and vehicles, according to a new federally-mandated count released Wednesday. That’s 29% fewer total homeless people than volunteers counted during the preceding count in February 2022, and 41% fewer homeless people sleeping outside.
But nonprofit Loaves & Fishes in a Wednesday news release called the report “incredibly hard to believe.” Its own data suggests the unsheltered Sacramento homeless population has increased. In 2023, the River District nonprofit served 30,000 more meals than in 2022, a 20% increase, and served 690 more total guests, the nonprofit said in a Wednesday news release.
Shannon Dominguez-Stevens, who has worked at Loaves & Fishes for a decade, said she has never seen unhoused people have a harder time finding shelter or housing than they do today.
“Just last week, a woman was discharged from the hospital and came to us to find support,” said Dominguez-Stevens, director of Maryhouse, a women’s center at the nonprofit. “After speaking to 211, she was told it would be four to six weeks before a bed would be available. It is not uncommon for our guests to choose not to call 211 for shelter because they understand that the wait is too long to maintain any hope ... something seems off.”
The city’s shelter bed waitlist, which people can join by calling 211, reflects those types of anecdotes.
While the report found the number of people living outdoors decreased by 41%, the city waitlist for a shelter bed has increased. In October, there were about 2,200 people and an additional 684 families on the list, according to city data. As of late May, there were about 2,550 people and 744 families on the list.
New firm used for research
Adding to the skepticism about the count, the nonprofit in charge of it, Sacramento Steps Forward, hired a new firm to crunch the data. Sacramento State had done that research since 2017, and applied again to do it in 2024, but Sacramento Steps Forward hired San Diego-based Simtech Solutions instead.
Simtech Solutions in 2012 created an app to count unhoused people for the point-in-time counts, which has been used in cities in 13 states, including San Diego, according to its website.
Simtech, which the nonprofit selected partly because it submitted a lower bid, produced a report half as long as Sacramento State. Simtech’s 2024 report is 50 pages, while Sacramento State’s 2022 report was 106 pages.
Despite that, nonprofit leaders confirmed the methodology was solid before releasing the report Wednesday, said Trent Simmons, data analytics director for Sacramento Steps Forward.
“When we first saw count decreasing we had a lot of questions,” Simmons said. “We couldn’t find anything glaring that would have impacted that number ... the broader methodology is very consistent with 2022.”
In addition, the 2024 count included more volunteers out counting people than in 2022 — about 600 volunteers instead of 500, Simmons said.
Mayor Darrell Steinberg said he trusts Sacramento Steps Forward to make sure the report is accurate, just as he did in 2022, when the report found a big increase.
“In the same way I had to reluctantly agree with the count when it went up, you live with the tough news, and you live with the progress,” Steinberg said Wednesday during a news conference touting the new number. “Today is not a declaration of victory but it does represent major progress. Maybe homelessness is not so intractable after all.”
The Downtown Sacramento Partnership, which represents downtown businesses, found downtown homelessness decreased by a similar amount as the report — 27% from May 2023 to May 2024, said Michael Ault, executive director. He said part of the reason for the decrease is due to the city creating a new team, the Incident Management Team, to respond to homelessness in conjunction with the fire department.
Many of those who are left living downtown struggle with severe substance use or mental health crises, however, causing continuous struggles on downtown businesses, Ault said.
What about the sweeps?
Loaves & Fishes isn’t the only homeless organization questioning the count.
Niki Jones, executive director of the Sacramento Regional Coalition to End Homelessness, said she believes volunteers were unable to count as many people this year because many were in hiding due to law enforcement agencies telling them to move.
During the two months before the count, 74% of homeless people interviewed said they had had to move and find a new sleeping location, the report found.
During the week of Jan. 22, the week of the count, the city towed 90 vehicles and stuck notices on another 257 ordering them to move, according to city data. Those were similar numbers to the weeks before and after the count.
“Camps haven’t just gotten smaller, they’ve been scattered,” said Jones, who frequently visits the camps. “There’s no significant increase in the number of people sheltered and there has only been limited growth in permanent or supportive housing. Which means people are going unseen and uncounted.”
T Jones said that many people she talks to say they’ve been on housing waiting lists for years and have dozens of applications out to landlords.
There are still roughly the same amount of shelter beds as in 2022, about 2,600, the report found. That’s partly because while the city and county have opened new shelters, such as along Roseville Road and in south Sacramento, the state-funded Covid Roomkey motel program has ended.
It’s unclear whether the state will continue to provide Sacramento with millions for homelessness, or if the new count could decrease the amount Sacramento gets. That answer will come from lawmakers prior to June 15, Steinberg said.
This story was originally published June 5, 2024 at 3:09 PM.
