California vaccinating older adults faster than expected. What that means for herd immunity
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention this week began to provide state-level data regarding COVID-19 vaccination for adults 65 and older, and the initial numbers show California ahead of the curve.
About 4.2 million people in that age group have received at least one vaccine dose in the Golden State, 71.9% of its 65-plus population, according to CDC data shared Friday.
That’s above the national rate of 67% and ranks 16th among the 50 states, plus Washington, D.C. West of Texas, only Colorado and Washington State fared slightly better than California, each at 73%.
Additionally, 2.4 million — 42% of California seniors — are fully vaccinated, the CDC says.
The CDC reports 24% of Californians of any age have had at least one dose, which ranks 29th and about even with the U.S. average.
The numbers suggest California is nearing completion for the 65-plus age group much quicker than had been expected in the early weeks of the rollout.
Two months ago, in an advisory committee meeting, state epidemiologist Dr. Erica Pan projected that it would take until June to vaccinate 70% of Californians 65 and older, based on the pace up to that point and expectations that supply would not grow substantially until March.
Fortunately, supply ramped up faster than predicted. Given the three- and four-week wait for second doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, respectively — along with the recent introduction of a single-dose vaccine from Johnson & Johnson — the state should now hit 70% of the 65-plus age cohort being fully vaccinated no later than mid-April.
While 72% still leaves more than 1.5 million Californians 65 and older to be vaccinated, that level of progress suggests demand within this group will soon slow down significantly, if it has not already begun to. Vaccination is not mandatory, and not all residents will choose to get vaccinated. Uptake rates may vary from region to region.
The 70% cited by Pan or similar figures have often been referenced by health experts as a goal because scientists estimate herd immunity — the point at which enough people are protected to substantially reduce the risk of community transmission for the population as a whole — will likely require something in the neighborhood of 70% of the population having protection via vaccine or prior infection.
California at the start of this week directed providers to expand eligibility to those ages 16 through 64 with a number of qualifying, existing health conditions and disabilities, as well as those who are pregnant.
The decision to do so without verifying recipients’ medical conditions beyond self-attestation has been polarizing: some including the head of UC Davis Health in Sacramento believe it opens the door to line-cutting, while others including disability advocates counter that the policy will help limit barriers to access and also keep doctors from being overwhelmed by patients requiring notes.
President Joe Biden last week directed states to make the COVID-19 vaccine eligible to all adults starting no later than May 1. Some states, Alaska and Mississippi, recently did so. Others, including Nevada and Utah, have announced plans to expand to all adults in March or April.
California’s vaccine campaign by the numbers
CDPH on its online vaccine data tracker says providers have administered 13,769,061 doses to date, an increase by 387,015 over Thursday’s total. CDPH says providers have administered an average of about 268,000 doses per day over the past week — the highest rate yet in the rollout.
The state reports about 4.83 million people are now fully vaccinated — 12% of California’s total population and about 16% of its adult population — and an additional 4.45 million are partially vaccinated.
The state reports that providers have received 17.7 million total doses, meaning the state has administered 78% of what it has received.
How many doses have been given across Sacramento area?
These are the totals for combined first and second doses, administered through Thursday, as reported by the state public health department, by recipient county of residence.
▪ Sacramento: 479,073 (30,554 doses per 100,000 residents)
▪ El Dorado: 65,555 (33,949 doses per 100,000)
▪ Placer: 161,456 (40,320 doses per 100,000)
▪ Yolo: 85,981 (38,451 doses per 100,000)
Figures may be undercounts due to data reporting delays.
Placer County in Friday’s state data update surpassed two doses for every five residents, and Sacramento County passed three for every 10.
Placer on its own local health dashboard, updated this week to include daily vaccination data, reported reaching 100,000 first doses administered to residents.
This means 25% of Placer’s overall population, of just over 400,000, is at least partially vaccinated. Placer County also reports that about 70% of its residents ages 65 and older have received at least one dose: 69% of those ages 65 to 79, and 72% of those ages 80 and older.
Northern California VA locations giving vaccines
Veterans Affairs Northern California Health Care is now offering COVID-19 vaccination to veterans at 11 clinic locations: Auburn, Chico, Fairfield, Mare Island, Martinez, Mather, McClellan, Oakland, Redding, Yreka and Yuba City.
Enrolled veterans are eligible regardless of age.
Veterans can book appointments online using the My HealtheVet portal; or by calling 1-800-382-8387 between 7 a.m. and 6 p.m. on weekdays.
More details are available at northerncalifornia.va.gov.
Sacramento-area health offices, public clinics and pharmacies
Most county health offices are splitting their direct allocations between their own county-run clinics, non-chain hospitals and other partners, including some Safeway pharmacies.
CVS, Rite Aid and Walgreens offer vaccine appointments at some of their pharmacies across California, including some in Sacramento, El Dorado and Placer counties, as part of a federal retail pharmacy partnership.
Rite Aid announced last week that it was expanding eligibility and prioritizing scheduling for teachers, school staff and child care workers in California. The pharmacy chain on Thursday announced that it was extended this expanded priority for teachers through the rest of March.
CVS said earlier this month it would be offering shots at 119 more of its pharmacies. That’s in addition to the 167 locations already offering the vaccine in California, as well as 600 Target stores nationwide where CVS has a pharmacy.
Sacramento
▪ Received directly: Not reported.
▪ Administered: 349,960 to Sacramento County residents through March 12. Of those, 234,894 were first doses and 115,066 were second doses.
Health officer Dr. Olivia Kasirye said in a Thursday morning briefing that Sacramento County has been told it will get 20,300 doses in its next weekly shipment, but that officials don’t expect more than 15,000 or so a week for the next few weeks after that.
The county has expanded eligibility to farm workers, restaurant employees and janitors as it advances within Phase 1B of the rollout.
It is also making a major push to vaccinate homeless who live under local freeways.
The county last week opened a new drive-thru clinic at Bayside Church in midtown on 19th Street, operated by Safeway. That clinic is offering the J&J single-dose vaccine Wednesday and Thursday next week, by appointment only.
Sacramento County continues to offer drive-thru vaccine clinics at Cal Expo, McClellan Park and Natomas High School; and walk-thru clinics at California Northstate University in Elk Grove and at Sacramento State.
All clinics require appointments in advance. Scheduling and booking information can be found at dhs.saccounty.net.
Sacramento also has CVS, Rite Aid and Walgreens stores participating in the federal partnership program, and the county is also partnered with 11 Safeway pharmacies.
The McClellan Park, Sacramento State and Northstate clinics offer the Pfizer vaccine, meaning a three-week wait between doses. Cal Expo and Safeway pharmacies offer Moderna, a four-week wait.
El Dorado
▪ Received: 63,360 total doses through Thursday, according to the county website.
▪ Administered: 64,049 doses through Thursday. This number exceeds the number received by the county health office because it includes vaccines given by pharmacies participating in the federal partnership.
El Dorado announced clinic dates for its South Lake Tahoe health office for the rest of March and early April.
Robinson’s Pharmacy on Main Street in Placerville is taking appointments through CalVax, the state’s online vaccine registration system.
The county offers clinics for El Dorado residents ages 65 and older in the parking structure at Red Hawk Casino in Placerville on Thursdays, also available through CalVax. That clinic is now offering first-dose as well as second-dose appointments.
Walgreens in Cameron Park and the CVS store on Palmer Drive in Cameron Park are also now offering Moderna vaccine appointments as part of the federal retail pharmacy partnership.
The county is also partnered with six Safeway stores.
More detailed information on county-run and county-partnered vaccine clinics can be found at edcgov.us/Government/hhsa/edccovid-19-clinics.
Placer
▪ Received: 78,370 through Feb. 28. Of those, roughly half were retained by the public health office while the remaining half were transferred to other health providers.
▪ Administered: Placer reports county residents have received 100,556 first doses and 58,118 second doses through Thursday, but this total is not broken down by provider. It includes those given at county-run clinics and by hospital systems.
Placer offers most of its county-run clinics at The Grounds, formerly the Placer County Fairgrounds, in Roseville. Appointments are required in advance. All clinics this week are fully booked, according to the county website.
The Grounds clinic is open for Placer County residents ages 65 and older, ages 16 through 64 with qualifying medical conditions and essential workers in Phase 1A or 1B who are employed in Placer County.
Placer is also partnered with eight Safeway pharmacies throughout the county.
More information on county-run clinics and Safeway partners in Placer is available at placer.ca.gov/vaccineclinics.
According to the CVS website, there are stores participating in the federal vaccine partnership in Auburn and Rocklin. There may also be availability at Rite Aid and Walgreens stores; users should check with individual stores for eligibility, the county says.
Appointments have also been made at Remedy RX Pharmacy in Roseville through a local partnership.
Yolo
▪ Received: Not reported since early February.
▪ Administered: 15,800 first doses and 12,487 second doses through Tuesday, county spokeswoman Jenny Tan said Thursday. Numbers did not change compared to a Monday update because there were no county-run clinics on Monday, and Tuesday and Wednesday’s numbers have not yet been input to the system.
Yolo County’s vaccination website says the county planned five clinics this week, all private, including for agriculture workers, education workers and jail inmates.
More details regarding county-run clinics are available on the county website at yolocounty.org.
Hospital systems
Hospital systems operating in multiple counties receive their own allocations from the state.
Sutter Health announced Tuesday that it is resuming the booking of first-dose appointments in the valley area — its large clinics in Sacramento, Roseville, Modesto, Stockton and Tracy — after it had suspended new appointments for about a month.
The provider in a message to patients Thursday announced it has been able to reschedule “nearly all” first- and second-dose appointments that were impacted by previous supply issues.
Sutter Health also said it expects to receive doses of the J&J single-dose vaccine “in the near future.”
Sutter says on its patient website it has administered more than 400,000 doses to date.
UC Davis Health is vaccinating “patients who work in education and childcare, emergency services, and food and agriculture” in line with the state’s Phase 1B guidelines, according to its website, and will offer shots to those with high-risk medical conditions as supply allows.
Kaiser Permanente is now vaccinating patients 65 and older, and recently started booking appointments for patients based on occupation. Essential workers in the fields of education, child care, food and agriculture, emergency services, health care and long-term care are all now eligible for shots via Kaiser.
In an update this week, Kaiser Permanente said it had administered nearly 950,000 of the 1.2 million doses it has received at Northern California facilities, and has more than 380,000 future appointments scheduled.
Kaiser Permanente says on its website it is offering vaccines to Kaiser members as well as non-members.
Dignity Health’s Mercy Medical Group says it has begun using the state’s My Turn website to schedule vaccination appointments.
This story was originally published March 19, 2021 at 11:26 AM.
