California is set to lose a congressional seat. How will that affect upcoming elections?

California is set to lose a congressional seat next year due to slow population growth, U.S. Census Bureau officials announced on Monday.

That means the state’s share of political power in Congress will decrease for the first time in its history, fall from 53 seats in the House of Representatives to 52.

California, with 39.5 million residents, will still have the largest state delegation in Congress.

Texas, the second most populous state, is gaining two seats and will have 38 representatives in Congress in 2022.

It will be up to the 2020 California Citizens Redistricting Commission to redraw the state’s political boundaries to reflect population changes. Here’s what to expect.

How will this impact California’s redistricting commission?

The 14-member redistricting commission is made up of five Democrats, five Republicans and four commissioners who are not affiliated with either party.

It draws political boundaries every 10 years regardless of whether the state gains or loses power in Congress. Losing a district could complicate its work.

“While we were certainly hopeful that California would maintain all of its congressional seats, we understood that the prospects for losing one were very high,” said Commissioner Sara Sadhwani, of Los Angeles County. “Now we know exactly what our task is that lies before us.”

The commission currently is hosting educational presentations about the redistricting process in California. Starting in June, the commission is expected to organize public input meetings.

Drafts of district maps will be released between November or December of this year. Final district maps are due to California’s secretary of state by February 2022.

It’s unclear whether district maps will be finalized as candidates file to run for office in the June primary election next year.

Sadhwani said it’s too early to tell which congressional districts will be changed or impacted as it awaits the release of further data from the Census Bureau.

“We will be looking at census data throughout the state, but also in conjunction with testimony from communities on the ground,” she said. “Until we have both of those data points, we will be able to tell exactly where a seat will be lost or changed or transformed.”

Eric McGhee, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, said the Bay Area, the Sacramento region and the Inland Empire have seen the most population growth in the state and could hold on to their congressional districts.

“Los Angeles has grown, but not fast enough ... and hasn’t grown as much as the state as a whole,” he said. “That means it’s going to lose districts to other parts of the state.”

Why is California losing a congressional seat?

While California’s population has grown since 2010, it has not exceeded the population growth of states like Texas and Florida, which are expected to gain congressional seats.

“There were more people moving out of California than moving into California and so that contributed to the population count in the census,” said Karen Battle, chief of the Population Division at the U.S. Census Bureau during a press conference.

That slow population growth is being driven by people moving out of the state, as well as less international immigration and fewer births, according to McGhee.

“That all adds up to a sudden, pretty steep decline in population growth just in the last few years,” he said.

This story was originally published April 27, 2021 at 5:00 AM.