More good news for Gavin Newsom in latest California poll — he’d defeat a recall today
Gov. Gavin Newsom would keep his job if the election to recall him took place today, according to the latest poll.
A survey by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found 57% of voters would vote “no” to recalling the Democratic governor.
The percentage of voters who would vote “yes” to a recall — 40% — is unchanged from a similar March survey. Three percent of voters say they don’t know how they would vote.
It’s more good news for Newsom, who spent the first part of the month traveling the state touting his proposal to spend a $76 billion budget surplus with plans that include $600 checks sent directly to many taxpayers, rent relief for tenants set back by the COVID-19 recession, and more funds intended to open college savings accounts for millions of children.
Mark Baldassare, PPIC president, said recall proponents and replacement candidates face an “uphill battle” to reach the majority needed to remove Newsom from office.
The survey of 1,705 California adult residents took place from May 9 to 18, with a 3.2% margin of error. When asked what would happen if Newsom were recalled, 29% said that things would get better, while 34% said things would get worse, and 28% said it would make no difference.
“For a recall election to gain traction this time, many more voters need to believe that things would get better afterward,” Baldassare wrote.
Views on the recall continue to break along party lines, with Republicans far more likely than Independents and Democrats to say they would vote yes in a recall. Just 11% Democrats would vote to recall Newsom, while 78% of Republicans are ready to oust him, as are 47% of independents.
Newsom’s job approval ratings have gone up slightly since the March survey, with 54% of likely voters approving of his job performance, compared to 53% in March. Of surveyed adults, 64% approve of his handling of the pandemic.
Public Policy Institute researchers warn that these numbers are still an early reading on the 2021 governor’s recall, and are “clearly impacted by the improving conditions of the COVID crisis and the economy,” Baldassare said.
“Gov. Newsom is on a year-long streak of majority approval among likely voters for handling the pandemic. Likely voters overwhelmingly believe that the worst of the crisis is behind us ... and that the state government is doing an excellent or good job with the vaccine distribution...” Baldasarre wrote.
He continued, “the 2021 special election is most likely to occur in late fall. The public’s views on COVID and the economy could sour by then or be preempted by discontent over new crises such as wildfires or electricity blackouts.”
Some Democrats, like state Sen. Steve Glazer, D-Orinda, suggest state officials should do all they can to move the recall election to late summer, to cut short the opportunity for COVID-19, wildfires or opponents to hurt the governor’s chances.
The election has not yet been scheduled. After the mandated signature withdrawal period ends on June 8, the Department of Finance will have 30 days to conduct a cost analysis and present it to the Legislature. Members then have another 30 days to review and comment on the report.
Only at that point will the secretary of state certify the election, and the lieutenant governor schedule a date. State law requires that a recall election be scheduled between 60 and 80 days from the date of certification.