Larry Elder is leader among California recall candidates. That might help Gavin Newsom

Gov. Gavin Newsom talks about Larry Elder everywhere he goes.

During a conversation with Planned Parenthood on Wednesday, Newsom blasted the conservative talk show host for opposing abortion.

On Monday, at a campaign event in San Jose, Newsom warned Democratic supporters that an Elder victory in the recall could result in a Republican takeover of Congress.

And when he rallied supporters in San Francisco earlier this month, Newsom described the leading Republican recall candidate in terms intended to scare Democrats.

“He’s to the right of Donald Trump,” Newsom said. “That’s what’s at stake in this election.”

Political experts say Newsom’s frequent criticism of Elder indicates that the radio personality’s dominance in the polls actually helps the embattled governor, who now has a credibly threatening rival to campaign against.

In liberal California, a viable conservative candidate like Elder will help Newsom in his mission to convince Democrats to vote, Sacramento State political science Professor Kim Nalder said.

“If Larry Elder is the face of the alternative to Newsom, it absolutely helps him in California because California is a deep blue state,” Nalder said. “Democrats are not likely voters at this point, so the goal for Newsom is to motivate people to bother to vote. The fear of a Trumpian candidate will do that.”

A clear contrast with Newsom

Elder, with his libertarian views opposing the minimum wage and workplace discrimination laws, presents a convenient foil for Newsom.

Until Elder’s late entry into the race, many pundits dismissed the recall challenger candidates as unserious, pointing to Caitlyn Jenner’s career in reality TV and John Cox’s campaign stunts with a live bear and a giant ball of trash. Many political experts theorized that the governor would easily coast to victory in the recall.

The idea that Newsom would easily win became a problem, anti-recall campaign spokesman Nathan Click said. The campaign’s goal in recent weeks has been convincing Democrats that they really do need to vote to keep the governor in office.

Christian Hernandez, 24, cited Elder’s views on women and race as a reason he plans to vote “no” on the recall.

“‘Some of the comments he’s made about women and racial relations are far out for me,” Hernandez said while sitting outside his family’s home in North Natomas. Elder has said both women and people of color complain too much about discrimination.

Rob Stutzman, who worked on Arnold Schwarzenegger’s successful recall campaign in 2003, said the Newsom campaign’s early efforts to tie the recall to Trump Republicans backfired, but Elder’s entrance into the race less than two months ago provided a welcome opportunity. Before that, he noted, Democrats unsuccessfully worked to tie recall supporters to Trump insurrectionists.

“He’s been really desperate for someone to run against,” Stutzman said. “They started their campaign by running against the people who stormed the Capitol on January 6, and that was a swing and a miss… so to have one of the candidates be someone they can directly contrast to is good for them.”

Allegations from an ex-fiancée

Elder’s ex-fiancée Alexandra Datig threw a curveball into the recall election when she came forward with allegations that Elder had once brandished a gun at her during an argument, a claim the talk show host has denied. Regardless, the episode highlighted that Elder had a relationship with Datig, who once worked in Heidi Fleiss’s high-end prostitution ring and told Politico that she worked as a producer for him.

“It’s terrible for Elder, just when he’s being introduced to millions of Californians for the first time,” Democratic strategist Rose Kapolczynski wrote in a text message. “In the end, Elder’s base will stick with him, just like they stuck with Donald Trump after the Access Hollywood tapes.”

The story is starting to affect voters’ views of Elder. North Natomas resident Trisha Nadal talked about Datig’s allegations when asked about her views on Elder.

“He has a lot of misogynistic comments,” said Nadal, a Democrat who is supporting Newsom in the recall election. “Where there’s smoke there’s fire.”

At a campaign event at the Capitol building Friday morning, rival recall candidate Kevin Faulconer called Elder’s past comments “disturbing.”

“They need to be fully investigated,” said Faulconer, a Republican who served as mayor of San Diego.

Faulconer said he has not personally talked to Datig, who has endorsed his candidacy, but said she did tell his campaign she had concerns about Elder before she went public with her story.

Faulconer has seized on Elder’s past comments about women in the workplace, particularly his position that employers should be able to ask a woman if she plans to have children when deciding whether to hire her.

But it may be too late for Faulconer, who trails in the polls, Stutzman said. If Elder continues to be the frontrunner, that may deter some from voting for the recall, given the strong possibility he could be the next governor.

“Elder continues to be a real gift to Newsom,” Stutzman said. “Anecdotally, I have friends who want to vote for the recall to send a message, but if Larry Elder looks like the inevitable top vote-getter, they’re reconsidering that. I think this is very beneficial for Newsom.”

Potential pitfall?

Although Elder’s views may be controversial with Democrats, simply campaigning against them may prove to be a weakness of Newsom’s campaign, said Ludovic Blain, executive director of California Donor Table, a group of liberal donors that funds community organizing efforts targeting people of color.

Blain said the 2020 presidential contest and the 2021 Senate elections in Georgia showed that Democrats need to show voters of color that they will make things better, not just that their opponents are bad, to win elections.

“The Newsom campaign is making a big mistake in just framing their campaign as being against Republican bogeymen,” Blain said. “Gavin needs to be clear why people need to turn out to vote, what’s at stake and what he will do to continue to make things better, not just how the other candidates will make things worse.”

Blain said the argument that a vote against Newsom might turn out to be a vote for Elder only works for voters who are well informed about the recall election and how the ballot works. Some voters may also see Elder’s race as a reason to vote for him.

“I think having a very conservative Black challenger cuts multiple ways,” Blain said. “There’s a question of whether his candidacy affects communities of color… how much it empowers white folks who have voted for racists multiple times being able to vote for a Black person and feel they aren’t racist.”

Elder does help Newsom establish a contrast for voters, said Pablo Rodriguez, who leads Communities for a New California, an organization that engages with Latino communities. But Rodriguez said his group’s work talking to voters of color whom Newsom needs to win makes him believe Newsom needs to make his campaign about more than just Elder.

“I think that contrast makes it easier,” Rodriguez said. “But I think it’s a mistake to just focus on one, even though he’s the leader in recent polls... I think it would be a mistake to target him as one villain.”

This story was originally published August 22, 2021 at 12:00 AM.