These are California’s tightest US House races in 2022. Here’s who is vulnerable
These are California’s 10 closest United States House of Representatives elections in 2022, according to initial expert analyses.
Editors for three election-tracking organizations — The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Inside Elections — designate a race as a “toss-up” or rate districts on a diminishing scale from being “safe” to “likely” to “leans” for either Democrats or Republicans.
Each report released updated ratings following the end of California’s redistricting process, the once-a-decade reformation of legislative boundaries. California lost a seat in the U.S. House due to slow population growth over the last decade. The commission charged with making new maps absorbed a Democratic district near Los Angeles.
California’s new congressional maps favored Democrats and put five Republican officeholders in more vulnerable positions, experts said.
The state currently has 11 Republicans in Congress, though former Rep. Devin Nunes left his seat early to lead former President Donald Trump’s social media venture. Experts said that it’s possible the GOP holds onto those spots, given midterm elections for candidates of the same political party as the president are historically tougher.
But three of those Republicans are in toss-up districts. Reps. Mike Garcia and Michelle Park Steel announced their intent to run in two of them; Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, is considered likely to run in the San Joaquin Valley district that holds his hometown.
These are seven other races that are not totally safe for one party, according to analysts. Four favor Democrats and three favor Republicans.
Slight Democratic advantage
1. Rep. Jerry McNerney, D-Stockton, 9th district
McNerney has not announced where he is running yet; a spokesperson for the congressman did not respond to a request for comment. He is still registered to run in the 9th Congressional District, which did not change number-wise from his current district.
The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rank the Stockton-centered district as likely going to a Democrat, though Inside Politics rates the district as safely blue.
McNerney has represented areas of the San Joaquin Valley since 2007. His last close election was in 2010, when he bested Republican challenger David Harmer, a lawyer, by 1 percentage point.
He would face Republican Tom Patti, a San Joaquin County supervisor, and Democratic activist Harpreet Chima this year.
2. Rep. Josh Harder, D-Turlock, 13th district
The 13th district takes pieces of Modesto and Turlock in the San Joaquin Valley stretch that starts under Tracy and ends below Coalinga. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball say it leans Democratic, while Inside Elections says it is likely Democratic.
A Hispanic-majority district, it would have voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 by 11 percentage points. Harder’s current district went for Biden by only 3 percentage points, suggesting he might have an easier time with new lines in 2022.
Harder was elected to Congress for the first time in 2018, when he unseated former Republican Rep. Jeff Denham.
Dave Wasserman, editor of The Cook Political report, told The Sacramento Bee that Harder “might be the most vulnerable Democrat on the map” in his new Latino-majority district, as Hispanic support for Biden dipped in 2020, and overall turnout in midterm years “could be quite poor.”
Harder will likely face a few first-time challengers who said they would run against him prior to redistricting — including Angelina Sigala, a Democrat and infectious disease expert, who told The Bee that she would run in the new 13th district. David Giglio, a Republican and former teacher, recently announced he would challenge Harder.
3. Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, 47th district
Porter announced she would run in the district that leans Democratic according to rankings by The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Inside Elections calls it likely Democratic.
The 47th district captures her hometown of Irvine, even though two-thirds of the voters are new to the Democratic representative.
Porter unseated Republican Rep. Mimi Walters in 2018 and skidded past Republican Greg Raths, the mayor of Mission Viejo, in 2020. She was the first Democrat elected in that district and its previous iterations since they were formed in 1953.
The new district, like her old one, would have voted for Biden by 11 percentage points.
She has several Republican challengers, including Amy Phan West and Brian Burley, business owners who both have strong conservative platforms, and Errol Webber, a filmmaker who previously challenged Rep. Karen Bass. She also faces Scott Baugh, a former GOP assemblyman who raised over $500,000 in the nine days following his campaign announcement.
4. Rep. Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano, 49th district
Levin’s district got a boost of Biden voters, going from a margin of victory of 7% to 11%. The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections say it will likely go to a Democrat; Sabato’s Crystal Ball says it just leans Democratic.
After coming in second to Republican candidate Diane Harkey, a former member of California’s Board of Equalization, in the primaries, Levin won the general election to get to the House in 2018. He handily defeated Republican challenger Brian Maryott in 2020.
Maryott, the former mayor of San Juan Capistrano, is contesting Levin again in 2022. Other Republican challengers include Lisa Bartlett, an Orange County supervisor, and Christopher Rodriguez, an Oceanside city council member.
Slight Republican advantage
5. No incumbent in the 3rd district
After news broke that Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Elk Grove, would run in the neighboring 5th district, the GOP’s Assemblyman Kevin Kiley and Omar Navarro jumped to run in the 3rd district. More Republicans are expected to follow.
This 3rd district would have voted for Trump by a margin of 2%. All three analysis organizations rated the district as “likely Republican” in 2022.
Republican consultant Matt Rexroad predicted that district will become more blue overtime as many Bay Area residents relocate to areas around Lake Tahoe.
“They’re changing the politics of Nevada County and some of those other areas,” he told The Bee last month.
Democratic candidate Dr. Kermit Jones raised more than $360,000 over the last three months.
6. Rep. Young Kim, R-Fullerton, 40th district
All three election-trackers agreed that the 40th district is likely, not certain, to elect a Republican. The new Orange County district would have gone for Biden in 2020 by 2 percentage points.
But Kim won in an old district that went to Biden with a 10% margin of victory. Kim bested former Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros by just over 1% of votes in 2020. It was a rematch of the 2018 election, which Cisneros won.
She has at least one Republican challenger this time: Raths, the once-Porter contester.
7. Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, 41st district
The three organizations also rated the 41st district as likely voting for a Republican.
This Riverside-holding district would have gone to Trump with a 1% margin of victory. Calvert’s old district went to Trump in 2020 by 7 percentage points.
Calvert has represented areas in Southern California since 1993 and has not had an election in which a challenger came within 3 percentage points since 2008.
McClatchyDC’s David Lightman contributed reporting.
This story was originally published January 12, 2022 at 5:00 AM.
