Polls show California Proposition 36 passing by a landslide. Do they tell the whole story?
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SOCIAL JUSTICE COALITION CHALLENGES PROP 36 SURVEY FINDINGS
Poll after poll in California shows that likely voters support Proposition 36, the ballot measure to reinstate felony penalties for certain drug- and theft-related criminal charges.
The Public Policy Institute of California found that nearly three quarters (73%) of likely voters are a yes on Prop. 36. A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey found a more modest 60% in favor.
The pendulum of criminal justice sentiment in California appears to be swinging back toward “tough on crime.”
But is it really?
One group that opposes the ballot measure — the Million Voters Project — contends that the pollsters are neglecting crucial California demographics: low-income people, young people, people of color and the formerly incarcerated.
The coalition says that its volunteers have spoken with a quarter million voters across the state about Proposition 36, “from San Diego, Inland Empire, Orange County, Central Valley, Los Angeles, Sacramento and the Bay Area.”
They’re speaking to voters in English, Spanish, Vietnamese and Korean in a bid to get to “low propensity” voters (those who typically don’t vote in great numbers) that traditional campaigns often ignore.
“Research shows that direct voter contact, like the conversations that MVP canvassers have with voters, is the key to increasing voter turnout,” according to a statement from the Million Voters Project, citing a New York Times opinion column from Lisa García Bedolla, chancellor’s professor of education and political science at UC Berkeley.
So what is the Million Voters Project hearing from those communities?
According to a statement from the group, 69% of voters surveyed said they oppose Prop. 36.
“The minute voters hear about this initiative, they change their mind. Let’s heal our people and move California forward,” said Tinisch Hollins of coalition member Californians for Safety and Justice in a statement.
The Bee reached out to PPIC’s Mark Baldassare, who oversees that organization’s surveys, to discuss their methodology.
Baldassare said that if there were any under-represented groups in the sample size of 1,646 California voters included in the most recent survey, polling firm Ipsos, whom the PPIC partners with, works with the PPIC to weight the survey in order to give representation.
Baldassare said that voters in California tend to be older, more affluent and more likely to be homeowners than the population at large, “and that’s just a reflection of who votes in California, not having to do anything with our sampling or methodology.”
“We go out of our way to make sure we used the best methods possible,” he said.
This comes as the institution of political polling is undergoing something of a crisis of confidence — a lack of confidence shared by Karla Zombro, deputy director of the Million Voters Project.
“Less than two weeks out from the election, polls don’t matter. What matters is who is going to vote. We are leaving nothing on the table,” she said in a statement.
Reached for comment, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who has campaigned in favor of Prop. 36, told The Bee in a statement that, “Polling consistently shows that the overwhelming majority of Californians support Proposition 36 because they can see our state’s worsening epidemic of drug overdose deaths, homelessness, and retail theft with their own eyes.”
Mahan added that the ballot measure gives cities the tools they need to protect small businesses and hold serial thieves accountable while getting people the treatment they need, and that hundreds of nonpartisan local elected officials have endorsed the measure.
“It is time for Sacramento politicians and their political allies to hear us,” he said.
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5. Voting began earlier this month.
SPACE RESEARCHERS URGE FCC TO STUDY SATELLITE ‘MEGA-CONSTELLATIONS’
Billionaire SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is busy suing the California Coastal Commission for blocking his company from launching more rockets along California’s Central Coast.
Meanwhile, 120 astronomy, astrophysics, and space experts have written to the Federal Communications Commission, asking the agency to investigate the effects of satellite “mega-constellations” (such as Musk’s Starlink network) on space, the atmosphere and the environment.
“We should look before we leap,” the space scientists warn in the letter to FCC Space Bureau Chief Julie Kearney.
“We shouldn’t rush forward with launching satellites at this scale without making sure the benefits justify the potential consequences of these new mega-constellations being launched, and then re-entering our atmosphere to burn up and or create debris,” the scientists wrote. “This is a new frontier, and we should save ourselves a lot of trouble by making sure we move forward in a way that doesn’t cause major problems for our future.”
The letter notes that Musk’s Starlink network has launched more than 6,000 satellites, and that it now makes up more than 60% of all satellites in Earth’s orbit.
“We’re in a short window of time when we can prevent making a mess of space and our atmosphere rather than spend decades cleaning it up. The new space race doesn’t need to create massive space waste,” the letter concludes.
You can read the letter here.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Game on, Governor Hochul! While I respect the Yankees’ storied history, California knows how to win championships. As a proud San Franciscan, you won’t hear me say this often, but this year: Go Dodgers!”
- California Gov. Gavin Newsom, in a statement announcing his wager with New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, where the governor with the losing team in the World Series — featuring the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Yankees — must display the winning team’s memorabilia for a day.
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This story was originally published October 28, 2024 at 4:55 AM.