Can Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill’ survive the US Senate?
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DISPATCH FROM CONGRESS: WHAT’S NEXT FOR THE BBB?
The “big, beautiful” tax and spending cut bill now heads to the US Senate, where lots of changes — and lots of delays — are expected.
“It will pass the Senate, but there are a lot of moving parts, a lot of competing demands,” Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, a senior member of the tax-writing Senate Finance Committee, told The Bee.
Republicans have a 53 to 47 majority and under Senate rules can pass the bill with 51 votes.
The Senate is expected to spend June negotiating the tax bill, and there are potential hurdles. Raising the state and local tax deduction, as the House bill has done, is important to California and other high-tax states but has never been popular with senators.
“I care about middle class families and I’m going to look at it,” Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, top Democrat on the Finance Committee, told The Bee.
The bill, which passed the House Thursday by one vote, makes big reductions in Medicaid, called Medi-Cal in California. It also dilutes or ends many tax breaks for electric vehicles. But it preserves the lower income tax rates enacted in 2017, which were due to expire after this year, and raises the standard deduction for seniors.
One of the flash points among Republican conservatives in the House is expected to surface again in the Senate — the bill’s price tag. The tax cuts are estimated to cost the federal government $3.8 trillion over 10 years.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-South Dakota, spoke only in general terms when asked about the bill.
While the tax cuts should help the economy grow, he said, there also need to be meaningful spending cuts.
“That’s why I think a lot of our colleagues have made it very clear that in order for a bill to get through the House and the Senate and on the president’s desk, it has to make a meaningful dent in the out-of-control spending we’ve seen over the past several years,” Thune told reporters.
Another hurdle: Democrats are vowing a big fight, one that targets vulnerable Republicans up for reelection next year.
“The ultra-wealthy donors and corporations whose money put Donald Trump back in office want a return on their investment, and Republicans are paying for it by waging a class war on typical American families,” said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-New York.
“That’s what this bill is about. It’s caviar over kids, and wealth over workers. Senate Democrats will use every tool at our disposal to fight this grotesque bill.”
California Sens. Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla, both Democrats, have from the beginning of Trump’s second administration promised to push back against any proposed cuts to Medicaid. Padilla had harsh comments for the president and the GOP in a statement Thursday after the House vote.
“After scheduling votes in the middle of the night all week, House Republicans voted to cut Medicaid, nutrition assistance, and other vital programs millions of Californians rely on,” he said. “They will stop at nothing to jam through Trump’s billionaire-first agenda all so that they can fund their tax cuts for the wealthy while racking up our national debt. For them, it’s billionaires over hardworking families and fiscal responsibility — it’s that simple.”
The Senate fight, though, will largely involve Republicans. Two GOP senators, Susan Collins of Maine and Thom Tillis of North Carolina, are running in states where President Donald Trump didn’t win by double-digit margins.
“They may very well get a pass to vote no on the eventual final version of the tax bill,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the nonpartisan Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
But, he said, “If the bill contributes to a bad environment for Republicans next year — which is possible — perhaps some of the incumbents in redder states, like Jon Husted in Ohio or Joni Ernst in Iowa, could find themselves in real races.”
And that could make it tougher for them to accept some of the bill’s more controversial stands.
CAPITAL CAUCUS KICKS OFF
Via Stephen Hobbs
Republicans and Democrats in the state Capitol are far apart on many issues. But Sacramento-area legislators see a way forward in these partisan times: the Capital Caucus.
On Thursday, eight lawmakers announced they had formed the bipartisan group to push forward on priorities for the capital region.
“This new caucus will give legislators and regional stakeholders an opportunity to work together on issues like economic development, flood control and infrastructure,” Assemblymember Josh Hoover, R-Folsom, said in a statement.
The group is also looking to collaborate on health care and climate-related issues, according to a news release.
Its members include state Senators Angelique Ashby, D-Sacramento, Christopher Cabaldon, D-West Sacramento, and Roger Niello, R-Fair Oaks.
Hoover and Assemblymember Heath Flora, R-Ripon, represent the caucus’s Assembly Republican interests and Assembly Democrats are represented by Cecilia Aguiar-Curry, D-Winters, Maggy Krell, D-Sacramento, and Stephanie Nguyen, D-Elk Grove.
Legislators have formed caucuses for the Bay Area and Central Coast, but neither group has a Republican member.
”It’s critical that our region band together to advocate for its continued success and growth,” Ashby said in a statement.
Time will tell if a shared region will overcome political divides.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“This is a major victory for hard working Californians. Newsom’s car ban is virtue signaling for extreme environmentalists who want to dismantle our economy, no matter how much it hurts families already struggling to make ends meet.”
- Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones, R-Santee, on the US Senate overturning California’s electric vehicle mandates
Best of The Bee:
- California to sue over Congress blocking climate waivers, via Lia Russell and Nicole Nixon
- US Senate votes to overturn California bid to ban gasoline-powered vehicles, via David Lightman
Bitterly divided House passes ‘big, beautiful’ tax bill. Here’s what it means to California, via David Lightman
Funding uncertain for Sacramento immigrant support program amid budget deficit, via Mathew Miranda