California U.S. Representative races could help determine control of the House

Good morning and welcome to the A.M. Alert!

U.S. HOUSE TOSSUP RACES

Via David Lightman…

Rep. Adam Gray’s bid for a second House term is one of the country’s 10 closest races, according to a new analysis by the nonpartisan Inside Elections team.

Gray, a Merced Democrat, topped Rep. John Duarte, a Republican, by 187 votes in the Central Valley district last year. President Donald Trump won the district by 5 percentage points.

The district has Merced County as well as portions of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties.

Democrats need a net gain of three seats next year to win control of the House. Inside Elections rates seven Republican-held seats and three held by Democrats as tossups. Among them are the seat held by Rep. Derek Tran, a Garden Grove Democrat who topped a Republican incumbent last year by 653 votes.

Not on the list is one of the Democrats’ targets, Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford.

The analysis says the seat leans Republican. Trump won the district with 52% last year.

Valadao has been under Democratic fire for his views of the big tax and spending bill now moving through Congress. He has consistently argued against major cuts to the Medicaid program, though he voted for the “Big, Beautiful Bill” in the House with big reductions.

HATE CRIME REPORT

Reported hate crimes increased by 2.7% last year, according to the 2024 Hate Crime in California Report released by Attorney General Rob Bonta Wednesday. Over 2,000 hate crime events were reported in the state; 75 were reported in Sacramento County.

“There is absolutely no place for hate in California,” Bonta said in a press release. “Transparent and accessible data is a critical part of understanding where we are and how we can end hate crimes in our communities.”

The report showed increases in hate crimes against LGBTQ+ and Jewish communities in the state.

A combined 453 hate crimes were categorized as anti-gay, anti-lesbian, anti-LGBTQ+, or anti-bisexual. Another 73 hate crimes were considered anti-transgender in 2024, an increase of 12.3% from the year before.

Out of the 406 religion-related hate crime events reported in 2024, 310 were categorized as anti-Jewish. Between 2023 and 2024, anti-Jewish bias incidents rose 7.3%.

Hate crimes with anti-Black or African-American bias remained the most common, with 494 occurrences. This is despite a 4.6% decrease in events from 2023.

“Everyone has a part to play as we continue to fight intolerance in California, and I urge leaders up and down the state to review the data and resources available and recommit to standing united against hate,” Bonta said.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“This is a massive change. It’s not a simple thing around the edges. It is a massive change. It challenges the role of collective bargaining in this state that has never been done before.”

— state Sen. María Elena Durazo, D-Los Angeles on trailer bill AB 130, one of the two measures at the center of the current state budget debate

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