Becerra up, optimism down: 3 takeaways from a new poll of California voters
Democrat Xavier Becerra is leading the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, according to a Public Policy Institute of California poll released late Wednesday.
Becerra was the top pick for 23% of likely voters, compared to 20% backing Republican Steve Hilton and 15% supporting Democrat Tom Steyer.
PPIC’s survey dug into the governor’s race and far beyond, gauging voters’ opinions of Newsom and President Donald Trump, their sentiments surrounding the future of California and the U.S., and their take on statewide ballot measures. The poll includes responses from 1,707 California adult residents using an online survey, with a margin of error of 3% among all respondents and 4% among likely voters.
Here are a few key findings:
Becerra is breaking away from Tom Steyer, other Democrats
The poll reinforced other recent surveys that have shown Becerra solidifying support among Democratic voters. A California Democratic Party poll released last week also showed Becerra, a former state attorney general, with a comparable six percentage-point advantage over Steyer, a billionaire Democratic activist and donor.
Other surveys, including one released earlier this month from Emerson College and two others commissioned by Hilton and Steyer’s campaigns released last week, showed Steyer tied or slightly ahead of Becerra. A spokesperson for Steyer’s campaign noted the PPIC survey was conducted more than a week ago, May 14-18, before its internal polling indicated a shift towards Steyer and away from Becerra.
Former Rep. Katie Porter is the only other Democrat in the PPIC poll to draw double-digit support, with 12% of likely voters selecting her as their top pick.
Hilton, a former Fox News host, has an even more sizable lead over the other major Republican candidate, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, who polled at 13%.
Only two candidates will advance from the primary to the general election, regardless of their party affiliation.
California voters are sour on the economy, the future, Trump
PPIC found 57% of adults and 52% of likely voters thought California is headed in the wrong direction. Majorities of most demographic groups share that opinion, except Democrats, college graduates and residents of the Bay Area.
More than three-quarters of Californians expect bad economy times ahead—the highest levels since July 2020, in the midst of the global COVID-19 pandemic.
Financial hardship has already hit Californians earning less than $40,000 annually, nearly half of whom say they are worse off financially than they were a year ago, compared to 27% of those earning $100,000 or more. Some 60% of likely voters say the war in Iran is likely to have a negative impact on their financial situation.
Among likely voters, 54% approve of Newsom’s job performance, while 30% of likely voters and 24% of all adults approve of the way Trump is handling his job. PPIC noted those are Trump’s lowest numbers across both of his terms.
A narrow majority of voters back the billionaire wealth tax
A majority of likely voters (54%) told PPIC’s pollsters they support a one-time, 5% tax on billionaires’ wealth. Backers of the proposed ballot measure collected more than 1.5 million signatures that are currently being validated by local election officials.
Support for the measure, which is being backed by SEIU United Healthcare Workers West, is strongest among Democrats (76%), voters aged 35 to 54 (77%), renters (71%) and voters making less than $40,000 a year (73%).
Support is lowest among Republicans (18%), residents of the Central Valley (44%) and homeowners (49%).
Critics of the measure have already invested tens of millions of dollars to fight it, in part by backing competing ballot measures that would invalidate it.
