Primary election results show Prop 50 is boosting Democrats in California races
Months after California Democrats redrew congressional boundaries through Proposition 50 to win more House seats, the state’s primary election has offered an early verdict. The strategy is paying off.
Democratic candidates will emerge from the primary in strong positions across the five Republican-held districts that the party targeted when it approved the measure last year. Incumbents who once represented some of the state’s most competitive districts also appear significantly safer heading into November — another key goal of the redistricting effort.
The results mark an early victory for Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democratic lawmakers, who pushed for new congressional lines after Republicans launched a similar redistricting effort in Texas. California voters overwhelmingly approved Proposition 50 in the fall.
“Prop 50 is working out the way Democrats planned,” said Christian Grose, a professor of political science and public policy at the University of Southern California.
The measure has taken on added importance as other redistricting efforts have stalled in some Democratic-led states while advancing in Republican-controlled ones. Now, with California’s primary House races called, Democrats appear well positioned to increase their House delegation. The question now lies in the size of those gains.
“No matter what happens, Republicans will have a much smaller delegation from California in the next Congress,” said Jon Fleischman, former executive director of the California Republican Party.
‘Safe Democratic seat’
Political experts believe at least three of the targeted House seats — the 1st, 3rd and 41st districts — are extremely likely to go blue.
“It’s difficult to see Democrats losing any of those three districts, given the way they’ve been redrawn,” said Dan Schnur, a politics professor at the UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies.
In Northern California’s 1st Congressional District, where longtime conservative stalwart Rep. Doug LaMalfa died earlier this year, Republican Assemblymember James Gallagher won a special election with the old district lines. The term ends in January.
But the primary race results for the next full term point to Democratic state Sen. Mike McGuire taking over the seat. The newly drawn district encompasses his left-leaning political stronghold of Santa Rosa and hometown of Healdsburg.
McGuire trailed Gallagher by about 4% of the vote, as of Thursday, though McGuire is expected to benefit from the votes of Democratic primary candidate Audrey Denney in November. In California, the two highest vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation.
“I mean, I could win that district,” said Paul Mitchell, a voting data expert who was the architect behind Prop. 50. “That’s a safe, safe, safe Democratic seat.”
Similarly, Southern California’s newly drawn 41st District appears headed to Democratic Rep. Linda Sánchez, who leads the primary race. She and the other Democratic candidates combined for 64.2% of the vote compared to Republican candidate Mitch Clemmons’ 35.8%.
Democrats are also expected to pick up a seat with the Sacramento region’s 3rd District, which is currently represented by Rep. Kevin Kiley. The district includes parts of Sacramento, Folsom, Rancho Cordova, Auburn, Truckee and South Lake Tahoe.
Democratic Rep. Ami Bera has advanced in that district and will battle Republican Robb Tucker, a Nevada County supervisor in November. Bera and his fellow Democratic candidates collectively outperformed Tucker and the Republican candidates by about 12% of the vote as of the latest results.
Kiley, who switched from the Republican Party to identify as independent earlier this year, is campaigning in the 6th District in hopes of remaining in Congress. The district, which mostly consists of areas in Sacramento and Placer counties, is supposed to be a safe blue seat but features Kiley’s homebase of Rocklin.
Early primary results signaled that the switch could be a stunning victory for Kiley as he was projected to face unknown Republican candidate Michael Stansfield in the runoff. Former Democratic Sen. Richard Pan has since surged ahead of Stansfield and will be the favorite against Kiley in November.
Grose said Kiley’s main challenge will be trying to demonstrate he is “truly Independent” after years with the Republican Party and taking conservative positions.
“If he’d been a member of Congress only this term, who kind of changed his tune in the last year or two, he might have a better chance, but he’s got a long record of pretty conservative policies when he was in the state Legislature,” Grose said.
‘Democrats’ to lose’
Even in the two more competitive House seats, Democrats currently appear favored to win in November.
In the redrawn 48th District, which spans San Diego and Riverside counties, Democratic candidate San Diego Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert and Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond advanced from a crowded, mostly Democratic field. Von Wilpert and her fellow Democrats have combined for 53% of the vote.
The Cook Political Report, which provides independent, nonpartisan election analysis, rates the seat as a “Lean-D.” Democrats in that region are also expected to benefit from higher voter turnout in November.
“The 48th looks like it will be fairly competitive, but it’s still the Democrats’ to lose,” Schnur said.
There is a current consensus that the hardest seat for the party to flip will likely be the 22nd District, a slightly left-leaning Central Valley swing district Democrats have consistently failed to win.
Republican Rep. David Valadao holds the seat and will go against progressive Democrat Randy Villegas, who surprised many by prevailing over Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains. For some who supported her, including the Democrats’ national campaign arm, Bains represented the stronger candidate given her moderate views and healthcare background.
Valadao’s backers have already started to emphasize his moderate views while portraying Villegas’ progressive politics as out-of-step with many district voters. Villegas is unabashedly in support of policies like Medicare for all and universal childcare.
“I do think she would have been a stronger opponent to Valadao,” said Erin Covey, house editor of the Cook Political Report.
Even so, Democrats believe Valadao is particularly vulnerable this year. He has continued to face criticism over a key vote last year to cut Medi-Cal and must try to defend his party under a president with declining popularity. Under Prop. 50, the district leans even more Democrat.
As of Thursday, Bains and Villegas combined for nearly 60% of the vote versus Valadao’s 41%. This primary marks the first time Democratic votes are making up a majority in a primary with Valadao since 2018. Republicans have also never improved their vote advantage from the primary to the general in the district in that timeframe.
“Any Democrat who is scandal-free and competent has a pretty good chance of winning against Valadao in that redrawn district,” Grose said.
‘Really shored up those folks’
Prop. 50 wasn’t solely about creating pickup opportunities. It also sought to put vulnerable Democratic incumbents on firmer footing — a goal that appears to have been achieved, at least for now.
Two clear examples are in Northern California.
In the redrawn 9th District, Rep. Josh Harder was winning 61% of the vote on Thursday. He won the seat in November 2024 by less than 4 percentage points.
Under its old boundaries, the district was one of only two that went for Donald Trump in 2024 while sending a Democrat to Congress. The seat is now considered a “solid” Democratic district, according to the Cook Political Report.
Harder will face Republican John McBride in the general election. The new district is largely in the northern San Joaquin Valley, though its new boundaries extend into the East Bay.
Rep. Adam Gray’s 13th District shows a similar shift toward Democrats. Gray flipped the seat in 2024 by just 187 votes and it was historically one of the few competitive U.S. House races in California.
He and another Democratic candidate combined for about 57% of the primary vote, as of Thursday. Leading Republican candidate Kevin Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor, and another GOP contender had 43%. The 13th Congressional District features areas in Patterson, Modesto, Turlock, Atwater, Merced, Madera and Stockton.
“It really shored up those folks, and for Adam Gray, in terms of incumbents, he is probably the biggest beneficiary of this new map,” Covey said.
