John Duarte, by tenths, leads Adam Gray in California Central Valley congressional race
A farmer and a state Assemblyman are neck and neck in one of the nation’s closest races for an open seat in this Central Valley congressional district that could go to the GOP even though Democrats outnumber Republicans.
Republican farmer John Duarte leads with 50.2% of the vote, four-tenths of a point above Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray, in California’s 13th Congressional District.
It is still too early — and way too close — to tell who will come out on top. Less than 59% of the votes had been counted, per the Associated Press.
Whether the toss-up election contributes to a predicted GOP majority or holds the line for Democrats is anyone’s guess. The day before the election, some analysts said Duarte had a slight edge.
The 13th, formed through the once-a-decade redrawing of legislative boundaries known as redistricting, covers all of Merced County in a stretch from Lathrop past Coalinga. It includes half of Modesto and Turlock to the east.
Voters there would have elected President Joe Biden by 11 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. They also would have voted to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom last year by a point. Forty-three percent are Democrats while 28% are Republicans. The district has a Hispanic-majority voting-age population; Latino voters have historically backed Democrats in California, though a nationwide trend toward the GOP could shift west.
Analysts first considered Democrats to have the upper hand here. They shifted the race to toss-up after the June primary when GOP candidates took 52% of votes. A week before the midterms, they had more confidence behind Republicans nationwide as surveys showed economic concerns were rallying GOP voters.
Gray, D-Merced, has represented the area in the Legislature for a decade. A moderate Democrat and self-proclaimed “radical centrist,” Gray has championed water access as one of his main concerns. The 45-year-old fought for the creation of a medical school program at UC Merced.
Duarte, a Modesto farmer and businessman who owns Duarte Nursery in Hughson, has similarly prioritized water access. The 56-year-old’s other mainstays are drilling for more oil on American soil and tamping down on inflation.
Other Central Valley elections
The Central Valley is home to two other tight House midterms in the 9th and 22nd Congressional Districts.
Rep. Josh Harder, D-Tracy, and San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti, a Republican, are in a close contest for the 9th; analysts say the congressman has a slight edge. Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, and Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield, are in a toss-up race for the 22nd.
Other Central Valley races with long-serving House members have not been high on analysts’ watch lists. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, is expected to win the election in the 20th (and take the speaker’s gavel if the GOP controls the House); Rep. Jim Costa, D-Fresno, the 21st; Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Elk Grove, the 5th.
This story was originally published November 8, 2022 at 9:00 AM with the headline "John Duarte, by tenths, leads Adam Gray in California Central Valley congressional race."
