Winner of Sacramento’s mayoral race depends on procrastinators. Who voted and where?
The winner of Sacramento’s mayoral race will largely depend on how procrastinators voted.
Early returns released at 2 a.m. Wednesday showed Assemblyman Kevin McCarty in the lead with 55% and Flojaune Cofer at 45%, according to county data.
Not included in these results are people who waited until Election Day to cast their vote.
These returns include 83,768 votes out of an expected roughly 200,000 that were cast in the race, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of bipartisan voting data firm Political Data Inc. That’s only about 42%.
That means more comprehensive results, which could determine who wins the race, won’t come down until Friday or next week, depending on how fast the county counts the remaining ballots, Mitchell said.
A Sacramento Bee analysis of early returns shows McCarty winning most of the city. Cofer led in downtown, midtown, Oak Park, Meadowview and parts of Valley Hi and Del Paso Heights.
Several of the neighborhoods where Cofer is winning are lower-income, although not all of them. McCarty is ahead in the North Sacramento neighborhoods of Robla, Hagginwood, Northgate and Gardenland, for example.
McCarty is also ahead in several neighborhoods that voted for Dr. Richard Pan in the primary, such as most of the Pocket and a big portion of North Natomas. He’s also ahead in some areas that voted for Steve Hansen in the primary, including most of East Sacramento and Land Park. McCarty, Hansen and Pan are all generally politically moderate, while Cofer is farther left.
Cofer also did well in areas that voted heavily for Kamala Harris. There were about 20 precincts in the city of Sacramento with at least 100 voters where at least 80% of voters backed Harris. Cofer was leading in 14 of them.
While the 8 p.m. results had McCarty with 56% of the vote, the 10 p.m. and midnight results showed him with 55%.
Although it’s just a slight uptick for Cofer, that trend matters, Mitchell said. At the end of Election Night in the March primary, Cofer was in fourth place. As more results came in, she ultimately ended up in first on March 26.
“The lead is good for Kevin McCarty, but there are many more outstanding ballots to be tabulated, and with later ballots being from younger voters and renters, we could expect Flo Cofer to gain votes, as she did in the primary,” Mitchell said.
Supporters at the McCarty Election Night party included Mayor Darrell Steinberg, District Attorney Thien Ho, council members Lisa Kaplan, Karina Talamantes, Caity Maple, Rick Jennings and Councilman-Elect Phil Pluckebaum.
“We certainly hope to continue this trajectory, but we have no idea,” McCarty said during his party, adding kind words about Steinberg’s eight years at the helm.
A few blocks away, the city’s more progressive sector, including councilwomen Katie Valenzuela and Mai Vang, supported Cofer, who was optimistic about a repeat of the primary.
“I know my people,” Cofer said from her party after the county posted the second batch of results. “My people were at those lines at 7:58 p.m. today.”
The next batch of results will come out Friday.
The new mayor along with two new council members will be sworn in on Dec. 10. Pluckebaum will be sworn in to replace Valenzuela to represent the central city, and Roger Dickinson will likely be sworn in to represent North Sacramento. He leads with about 63% of the vote in early returns.
This story was originally published November 6, 2024 at 2:11 PM.
