How would Democrats replace President Joe Biden as nominee?
UPDATED STORY: Joe Biden is out. How do Democrats pick a new presidential nominee?
The following story was originally published on July 10 and has been updated. Our most recent story is linked above.
Joe Biden has decided that he won’t be the Democratic presidential nominee — now what?
It probably won’t be as chaotic as it seems, thanks to a process that the party’s national convention, which starts August 19, would follow.
Also, Biden is standing behind Vice President Kamala Harris.
“Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year,” he said in a statement, shortly after announcing he would not seek reelection.
That said, there are still steps that need to happen before a replacement is chosen.
Q. Now that Joe Biden has stepped aside, what happens next?
A. Some Democrats are floating the idea of what they call a “mini-primary.” Details of precisely what would mean are unclear, and chances are voters would not be able to cast ballots. One idea is that potential candidates would participate in forums prior to the convention.
Q. How would a new nominee be chosen?
A. It’s up to the 3,939 pledged delegates to the Democratic convention. California has 424 delegates, according to Associated Press.
Delegates were allocated earlier this year by states according to voting or through other processes such as caucuses. The convention is scheduled to run from August 19 to 22 in Chicago.
It takes a majority of delegates to win the nomination. Virtually all the delegates are pledged to Biden. Since he chose not to run, they are free to vote for another candidate.
Q. If Biden had stayed in the race, could enough delegates reject him and choose someone else?
A. Yes. Democratic party rules say delegates are pledged to a candidate, not bound. “All delegates to the National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them,” says p. 21 of the party’s convention rule book.
Q. What are the chances of a convention that becomes deadlocked and goes on and on?
A. If no one has a majority after the first ballot, or roll call of the states and territories, there would be a second ballot. Party officials, called automatic delegates, would be given a bigger role once the process went beyond the first ballot.
The officials, who used to be called “superdelegates,” include members of Congress, governors and other top Democrats. There are 739 such delegates, including 70 from California.
The last time a national convention failed to pick a nominee on the first ballot was 1952. Illinois Gov. Adlai Stevenson had not entered the race before the convention, but emerged as a compromise choice once the front-runners couldn’t get a majority.
Q. Who is the favorite with Biden not running?
A. Harris is a strong favorite to win a majority of delegates on the first ballot. Before Biden dropped out, no prominent Democratic figure suggested they would challenge her.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said “no” when asked if she’d run if Biden stepped down. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has said repeatedly he does not intend to run this year.
Q. Would a messy nomination fight hurt the Democrats?
A. Chris Jackson, senior vice president at Ipsos Public Affairs, which conducts national polls, noted that the nominee is likely to instantly win support of hardcore Democratic voters.
If that bloc is 40% of the electorate, he explained, it wouldn’t take much more to win the general election. Democrats are unlikely to jeopardize their chances with a messy convention.
Q. Would Harris do better than Biden?
A. Maybe. A survey taken Sunday and Monday by Emerson College Polling showed Trump leading Harris among registered voters, 49% to 43%. He led Biden 44% to 40%.
This story was originally published July 10, 2024 at 4:55 AM with the headline "How would Democrats replace President Joe Biden as nominee?."
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