California is a tough state for the GOP. Now it’s even tougher

California Republican Congressman Jeff Denham paused for a long several seconds when asked about Donald Trump’s claim that the judge hearing a case against him was biased because of his “Mexican heritage.”

“It’s disappointing to hear,” said Denham, of Turlock, who is running for re-election to the U.S. House, before adding, “that’s all I’ve got to say about it.”

Trump’s ascension to the Republican nomination for president is roiling Congressional races throughout California as GOP candidates in the liberal state struggle with how to respond to having the bombastic businessman at the top of their party’s ticket.

Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant in Sacramento, said dissatisfaction with Trump contributed to low turnout among Republican voters in the California primary. Low turnout would be devastating for Republican candidates if it recurs in the November general election, where swing districts are up for grabs from San Diego to the Sacramento suburbs.

Madrid pointed to the relatively comfortable primary victory of Rep. Ami Bera, D-Elk Grove – just weeks after his father pleaded guilty to illegally funneling money to Bera’s campaigns. Bera won more than 53 percent of the vote in a tightly contested swing district while Republican challenger Scott Jones finished with 46.7 percent. They’ll meet again in the November election.

“I think the best thing Ami Bera had going for him was Trump turning off enough Republican voters to give him a wider margin of victory than conventional wisdom would suggest,” Madrid said.

Another Democratic congressman considered vulnerable before Trump’s rise is Scott Peters of San Diego, who narrowly won re-election in 2014. Peters cruised through this month’s primary election with nearly 60 percent of the vote.

In November he’ll face Denise Gitsham, who topped four other Republicans in the primary – with 16.4 percent of the vote.

Trying to unseat Peters with Trump at the top of the GOP ticket won’t be easy, conceded San Diego Republican strategist Jason Roe, who advises Gitsham.

“In my heart I believe it is going to make it very difficult in swing coastal areas like San Diego,” Roe said. “You’ve got the impact Trump has with women, the impact he has with Latinos – and not just that they oppose him, but that they are energized to vote against him.”

Republican candidates need to make clear to California voters they have a different style from Trump, he said.

“If you don’t, in distancing yourself from Trump, criticize Trump, you should still be able to win over Trump supporters,” Roe said. “Even Trump supporters recognize that his confrontational style rubs people the wrong way. You can’t really punish someone for being offended for getting punched in the face.”

National Democratic leaders claim Trump’s candidacy offers an unexpected chance to gain the 30 seats needed to take control of the U.S. House – and California races are key to that effort.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting several Republican congressional incumbents in California by trying to link them to Trump. Those officeholders include Denham, David Valadao of Hanford, and Steve Knight, from Palmdale in Los Angeles County. Each represents a district with a substantial percentage of Latino voters.

“What Donald Trump has done to the Republican brand is something that should concern Republicans all across America,” said Rep. Ben Lujan of New Mexico, chair of the DCCC.

Dave Gilliard, a Sacramento-area Republican political consultant, called the Trump effect on congressional races “the big question mark” of the election.

Gilliard, who is working on Jones’ race against Bera and Jeff Stone’s attempt to unseat Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz of Palm Desert, said he is advising campaigns to focus on making sure Republican voters get to the polls in November rather than worry about what Trump is doing.

“Both of them, Jones and Stone, have to run as the top of the ticket in their districts. Neither of them is running on the Trump ticket, so to speak,” Gilliard said. “They are going to have to tell voters why it is important to elect them.”

Republican consultant Madrid, who specializes in Latino voting trends, said Democrats need to be concerned about turnout as well. The Latino and youth votes in the California primary did not surge as expected, Madrid said, and he no longer thinks that Democrats can count on a “tsunami” of anti-Trump Latino voters in November helping to boost their candidates.

But Stanford University political scientist Bruce Cain still expects California Latinos and other minority voters to mobilize in November against Trump. And, he said, Trump puts Republican congressional candidates in an awkward spot.

“It creates this real strategic dilemma of whether the candidates try to run with the national ticket or against it,” he said.

Trump’s candidacy, Cain said, likely ensures the reelection of vulnerable California congressional Democrats such as Bera, Peters, Ruiz and Julia Brownley of Thousand Oaks. The Santa Barbara seat coming open with the retirement of Lois Capps should also remain in Democratic hands, he said.

“If Trump continues to behave the way he has been behaving over the last couple of weeks, I think it’s a real problem for a Republican Party in California that’s already in a deep hole,” Cain said.

Republicans hold just 14 of California’s 53 seats in the U.S. House and neither of the two Senate seats.

The critical assessment of Trump’s impact on California Republicans comes three months after House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, suggested that Trump’s intensity could help Republican congressional challengers – even arguing that Trump might win support from Democrats in conservative areas like California’s Central Valley.

McCarthy has embraced Trump (although he opposes Trump’s proposed ban on Muslim immigrants), as have Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, and Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Alpine. Other GOP members of California’s congressional delegation have pledged to back “the Republican nominee,” without naming Trump.

McClatchy reporter Michael Doyle contributed.

This story was originally published June 17, 2016 at 3:00 AM with the headline "California is a tough state for the GOP. Now it’s even tougher."