Gavin Newsom 2024? Why the California governor’s presidential prospects are serious

Gov. Gavin Newsom bought $100,000 worth of television commercials in Florida this week — apparently just for fun, right?

Probably not. That’s expensive fun, even for a guy who has no really significant opposition for reelection. In fact, thanks to last year’s failed recall attempt, Newsom has already been reelected once, in the middle of his first term. Thanks, Larry Elder et al.

Besides trolling somewhat likely GOP presidential candidate and sentient Nordstrom mannequin Ron De Santis, Florida’s governor, why is Newsom doing this?

Though some of you may pass caramel macchiato through your nose as you read this, I think Newsom could very much be a leading contender to win the next Democratic presidential nomination. Here’s why.

2024 is right around the corner, and despite President Joe Biden’s increasingly vehement protestations about running for reelection, muffled murmurs are turning into open speculation about the Democratic presidential field.

In Democratic presidential politics, a completely new face tends to work. JFK (age 43 upon his inauguration), Carter (52), Clinton (46), and Obama (47) were all very much youthful newcomers to the national scene, and Democratic voters often respond to those sorts of candidacies. (Biden, a reassuringly experienced figure at a time when we didn’t feel reassured about much, was an obvious exception.)

Newsom is not a new face in California, but he is for the rest of the country. Hollywood-handsome and a young-looking 54, he’s definitely a potential phenom in a field that thus far lacks flair.

Vice President Kamala Harris dropped out of the presidential race four years ago right before her home state’s primary on Super Tuesday; the then-California senator was polling around 8% here at the time. She didn’t catch fire in 2020, in other words, and she isn’t catching fire now. Sorry, it’s a fact.

The political problems she had then are the ones she has now: She’s not particularly good on her feet, and her staffing is Cuisinart-level chaotic.

That leaves ... who? Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, 40, is still green even for Democrats. Sen. Bernie Sanders, at 80, is even older than Biden. Throw in Sen. Elizabeth Warren and, yes, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, both in their seventies. And then there’s a whole cast of other candidates who just didn’t catch on in 2020.

Newsom must be looking at the field and, as a presidential candidate, must be thinking, “I can do this if they can.” He’s like Bill Clinton in 1991, surveying a bunch of potential competitors who don’t have his juice. President Paul Tsongas anyone?

How does Newsom proceed? Well, California could be portrayed as America’s bright, tech-savvy, economically formidable future or a barely contained dumpster fire of homelessness and crime. But Newsom — who is, shall we say, loquacious — could run the table at any debate, even if it includes 17 other candidates.

Voters are going to look at the stage and see someone who looks and sounds like a president. And as with another California governor, Ronald Reagan, that kind of perception has turned a series of hopefuls into the guy with the launch codes on Inauguration Day.

But what about Newsom’s propensity for jargony bloviation? OK, what about Clinton’s? Jargon, take me away!

Thanks partly to his dyslexia, Newsom has a superpower: thinking on his feet and letting it rip, without notes, ad infinitum.

Anyone who has met Newsom knows that the phrase “star quality” is an understatement. He comes off like an affable guest host of “The Tonight Show.” Does Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar have that? Only if you count her ability to wax rhapsodically about ice fishing.

What does the 2024 primary map look like? While it remains in flux, Iowa is still likely to go early, but Nevada is, too. The latter is practically a California media market. I’d think that Newsom would do well in glitzy Nevada.

In Iowa, he could rightly point out that California is the country’s largest agricultural state, while Iowa ranks second. Give Newsom 48 minutes to talk about it at a Des Moines Register-sponsored debate, and you’ll walk away with the equivalent of an agronomy degree from UC Davis.

New Hampshire? Bring on the coffee shops and living rooms of the flinty but potentially starstruck. He’s a master of back-slapping.

On to South Carolina, where a Democratic candidate has to connect with older Black voters. Newsom can easily make the argument that California is ahead of most of the country in pursuing racial equity. And maybe, if Sen. Dianne Feinstein steps down, he can appoint a Black woman to the Senate, as he has publicly stated he would do.

We then turn to Super Tuesday, when, lo and behold, California is scheduled to be at the top of the pile in delegates awarded. Newsom could emerge with hundreds of delegates and be in the lead.

President Gavin Newsom? He’s proved he’s passionate, resilient and articulate to a fault. If those aren’t presidential-level skills, I don’t know what are. And as Newsom might put it, intentionality is determinative in an iterative sense.