It’s time for these Democrats to quit California’s odd governor’s race | Opinion
In about 90 days, ballots will begin arriving in mailboxes across California — a blue state that Democrats should own. Yet as of now, two Republican candidates for governor, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, are ahead of most Dems in the polls.
If that’s not sobering enough for the (D) team, Hilton — a former Fox News host — raised more money than any other candidate in the second half of 2025.
He collected $4.1 million from donors, though that’s a pittance compared to the more than $27 million that Democrat Tom Steyer invested in his own self-funded campaign. Yet Steyer is not getting much love from voters, even with his heavy spending on slick TV ads that portray him as a cross between a billionaire savior and a flannel-shirt-clad, folk-hero environmentalist.
Steyer is consistently polling at 8% or less — not exactly a surprise since there are now nine Democratic contenders in the race, thanks to the recent entrance of San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan.
To put this in perspective, there are enough Democratic candidates to make up a baseball team, though it remains a team without a star.
That’s a problem. It’s giving the GOP oversized influence in a state where only 25% of voters are registered Republicans.
Here’s who needs to go
This is not the time for Democrats to panic; it’s still highly unlikely that a Republican will be our next governor.
But they can’t afford to be cocky, either. Not when a large pool of unaffiliated voters — 23% of California’s electorate — could give a boost to Republicans. There are already indications of that; in a January poll of decline-to-state-voters, Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton were the top two choices.
So which Democrats should go?
Recent polls show four candidates have failed to catch on: State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former State Controller Betty Yee, former Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon and former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, with Xavier Becerra, a former state attorney general, on the bubble.
Three candidates — Calderon, Yee and Thurmond — are out of cash or close to it, according to financial statements filed with the Secretary of State.
When you start looking more like spoiler than a viable candidate, it’s time to get out.
Here’s who that leaves
A few favorites could emerge from the Democrats’ endorsement convention taking place over Presidents Day weekend. But don’t look for an actual endorsement, since a candidate must secure 60% of the delegate vote to win the party’s blessing.
That’s not going to happen, nor should it. No candidate has done enough to earn a public anointing.
Former Rep. Katie Porter remains at or near the top among Democratic candidates — she was at 14% in the most recent poll — closely followed by Bay Area Congressmember Eric Swalwell. Mahan, the newcomer, managed to pull 5% in the most recent poll.
But Chad Bianco — the MAGA sheriff of Riverside County — was on top with 18%.
Could there be a Republican sweep?
In a worst-case scenario for Dems, two Republicans make the runoff, leaving liberals out in the cold.
But is that an actual possibility or a scare tactic?
Paul Mitchell, a political consultant, puts the odds of the GOP claiming the top two spots at 7% to 10%. That seems comfortably low, but as Mitchell puts it, if he had a 7% chance of being hit by a car when crossing the street, he would not cross it.
Good analogy.
However remote the risk may be, Democrats should avoid crossing that particular street.
It is inconceivable that either Republican candidate — one a former Fox Newser and the other a law-and-order sheriff — would be the next leader of California. They are just too out of sync with the majority of voters.
Ideally, two Democrats will make the run-off, giving Californians a real choice, rather than a repeat of the 2024 Senate election that pitted Democrat Adam Schiff against Republican Steve Garvey. That was no contest at all.
That is not going to happen if too many Democrats are on the ballot.
Candidates have until March 6 to decide. After that, their names stay on the ballot, even if they announce they’ve dropped out. They become zombie candidates — siphoning votes from others who have a chance of making it to the November runoff.
Fortunately, there is still time for those who have no path to victory to step aside and, if they’re feeling magnanimous, to endorse an opponent.
Please, for the sake of California, do it before it’s too late.
